https://digbysblog.net/2026/10/30/the-cost-catastrophe/
THE MOST INCOMPETENT WAR IN HISTORY: SARAH PAINE ON TRUMP'S IRAN DISASTER
Dr. Sarah Paine, a leading historian of great-power conflict and strategy, delivers a blunt verdict on the Iran war. She calls it one of the most incompetent wars in human history. The decision ignored basic principles of assessment, put maximum costs on America itself, and left permanent damage to the country's power and alliances. This is not hindsight--it is the predictable result of hubris meeting reality.
THE CORE VERDICT
"The Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history."
A competent war puts the costs on the enemy and minimizes them for yourself.
This one did the opposite.
THE COST CATASTROPHE
It trashed the US economy.
It blew the US alliance system.
Iran is hurting, but the collateral damage is taking down the world's economy.
That transforms the United States from a partner into an annoyance--and for many, a primary adversary--because it is threatening their economies.
"That's breathtakingly incompetent."
THE STRATEGIC BLIND SPOT
Any serious assessment looks at the enemy's strengths and your own weaknesses, plus everyone else who might intervene.
That was absent.
The first thing Iran would do is shut Hormuz. Narrow seas close in wartime. Ukraine already showed this with the Black Sea.
Shore artillery, mines, and other tools stop traffic. There is no mystery here.
The big naval base in Bahrain becomes unreachable. The fallback is Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away in the middle of nowhere. "That would be a mess."
THE HUBRIS THAT MADE IT POSSIBLE
The people making the calls are historically unqualified for the job. That makes them profoundly dangerous.
Type A hubris assumes all decisions that matter happen in the United States.
Type B hubris assumes being good at one thing makes you good at everything.
Half-court tennis: you only watch your own side and never study the other team.
The Iranians understand Americans far better than Americans understand them.
THE UNFEASIBLE OBJECTIV
Trying to "solve" Iran with 90 million people was never realistic.
Nazi Germany had roughly 80 million and required an occupation force of about 1.5 million just to hold it after the war--before counting everyone else.
The goal was unattainable. Pursuing it guarantees overextension and a bad ending.
The lesson the world takes is simple: get a nuke. The war incentivized proliferation.
This was a pivotal error. The choices that existed before are gone and will not return. "We will never be the trusted partner ever again. It's done."
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Iran war did not merely fail. It maximized American costs, destroyed trust with allies, and handed every rival a clearer reason to treat the United States as a threat to their own prosperity. Competence would have contained the problem at affordable cost. Hubris chose the opposite. This is what permanent strategic damage looks like.
But the new helipad is really nice.
