COVID-19 Best Case Scenario

In terms of having a plan for future events, this is the presentation the Obama administration put together for pandemic response.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819268/Pandemic-Playbook.pdf

1 Reply

@hightor,

So, in your opinion then, you believe the President should not be overly involved? Leave the public notices to the CDC.

I think a small portion of your post has been blinded by your anti-Trump beliefs. We are working toward a best case scenario. Looking for what would be the best way to handle the next event.

It seems you think that the President, whomever they are, should not be giving speeches about it. I don't think that is practical and will not be added as a solution phase as the President has to be involved.

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@engineer,

It is interesting that has a Chinese link and several misspellings and looks like it was printed on a really bad ink-jet printer, but...

There are a lot of government agencies involved in that plan and most likely, they were all involved in COVID-19. I don't see HHS or DoD not doing anything once COVID-19 was identified.

Lets move away from minutia a bit though;
-Do we shut down the country again?
-Do We seal ALL the borders?
-Do we arrest interstate travel?
-Do we criminalize mask wearing?
-What have we learned from doing these things with COVID-19?

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@McGentrix,

No, I think the president has an important role to play. But not as a cheerleader. And not as a medical expert. And not as politician trying to use a national emergency as a re-election tactic. Ideally he would have sufficient knowledge, or rely on staff members with sufficient knowledge, to be able to present a coherent policy guided by the findings of medical professionals and scientists with experience in pandemic response.

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@hightor,

Ok, we can work with that.

How do we keep politics out of it though (which is something I agree we need to do)? Are we in such a state of division that half the people will always disagree with what the Executive branch comes up with?

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@McGentrix,

Quote:

-Do we shut down the country again?
-Do We seal ALL the borders?
-Do we arrest interstate travel?
-Do we criminalize mask wearing?

All of these things are possible choices that need to be linked to specific conditions. As in "We seal all borders if" — and then list the conditions which will prompt those responses.

Quote:

-What have we learned from doing these things with COVID-19?

We need stockpiles of PPE and other emergency needs and we should have outlines of how we will respond to a host of potential disasters.

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

While you probably won't respond to my post for whatever reason...

If a country plans on "living with the virus" rather than trying to "eliminate it"; then two words: "contact tracing". Like where I live, that would be up to the state governments to do in the US of A.

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@hightor,

hightor wrote:

Quote:
-Do we shut down the country again?
-Do We seal ALL the borders?
-Do we arrest interstate travel?
-Do we criminalize mask wearing?

All of these things are possible choices that need to be linked to specific conditions. As in "We seal all borders if" — and then list the conditions which will prompt those responses.

Hmmm... conditions. Lets use the following example as a scenario:

Quote:

Jakarta, Indonesia, reports that 150 citizens have become ill from an unknown disease in the course of 1 week. 20 of those infected have died and it appears that the number of infected are growing. WHO has been made aware and are sending experts to the region to investigate.

What should the US, at this early stage do? My initial thought would be to stop travel from Indonesia until WHO has a report on what is going on and that we indicate that the CDC is aware of a possible situation originating in Indonesia.

Is that enough or should we do more or is that overkill?

hightor wrote:

Quote:
-What have we learned from doing these things with COVID-19?

We need stockpiles of PPE and other emergency needs and we should have outlines of how we will respond to a host of potential disasters.

Federal or state stockpiles? Do we continually cycle through the stockpile keeping it fresh? How do we fund that?

Thank you for keeping the conversation going.

1 Reply

@justaguy2,

My son had finally gone to get a haircut in July before returning to college. That evening he received a phone call from our Dept. of Health indicating that one of the barbers had tested positive for COVID-19. Through contact tracing, they knew he had been there that day and he had to quarantine for 2 weeks. They asked him a bunch of questions about where else he had gone so they could continue.

Though that is a personal experience, I doubt it is unique and we have been doing a lot of contact tracing with people having positive results.

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

That's were the state of Victoria f*cked up in Australia, they dropped the ball big time on "contact tracing". So they had to go into pretty much complete lockdown (again). Whereas the state I live in, as well as an even bigger state (population wise) being New South Wales has "gold standard" contact tracing, and therefore has kept low case numbers for it - not to mention the fact that restrictions have been able to continue to be eased/lifted.

If you arrive in the state I live in from another state (depending on which state it is) or overseas, you'll have to quarantine in a hotel for 2 weeks here too.

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@McGentrix,

Quote:

My initial thought would be to stop travel from Indonesia until WHO has a report on what is going on and that we indicate that the CDC is aware of a possible situation originating in Indonesia.

This means trusting the WHO, so we'd want to have a good working relationship with them. We need to rebuild trust in international organizations (which, I realize, is a different conversation.) And it would be good if we had people we could send there to work with the WHO. I think overkill is something we might need to accept at the early stages of an outbreak.

Quote:

Federal or state stockpiles? Do we continually cycle through the stockpile keeping it fresh? How do we fund that?

I think the stockpiles should be under federal control. That way more equipment could be sent promptly to specific areas. And all the equipment would be of uniform quality. (States might be tempted to buy cheaper, less effective, supplies in order to remain within state budgets.) I suspect there are already BMP concerning the freshness of emergency equipment. As far as funding...taxes. The country is seriously undertaxed . If we don't want higher taxes, then we must reduce expenditures. This doesn't mean announcing unfunded federal mandates and making states raise taxes to pay for them.

1 Reply

@hightor,

There was much ado about some states "getting more" than other states from the Feds. Do we repeat that?

I do not trust "World Agencies" like WHO to American interests at heart. Unfortunately, as an American I feel that American interests should be at the head of the list for American responses to a global event.

However, if we had significant influence in WHO, then maybe we could trust their judgements.

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

Quote:

There was much ado about some states "getting more" than other states from the Feds.

Some states need more than others, and at different times. Distribution this past spring was haphazard and not transparent. Having well-thought out protocols would help, instead of making it up as we go along.

Quote:

I do not trust "World Agencies" like WHO to American interests at heart.

US antipathy toward international cooperation pretty much assures that other powerful countries, like China, have more influence on organizations like the WHO.

Quote:

...a global event.

A global event requires a global solution. Global cooperation and crafting an effective national response are not mutually exclusive.

1 Reply

@hightor,

read a pre pub note that the march of covid-19 mutation has already plopped out some no longer needed "pseudogenes" ( this is usually a bunch of 'turned off" RNA [0r DNA] sequences that we call "junk in the genome") These pseudogenes evidence that we have been graced with at least 2 new forms of covid 19 (so now its an even "noveller" novel form).
Apparently the mutational forms (also discovered in China), are more transmissive but even less lethal. Stands to reason, here's an organism just trying to replicate itself to live. SO by destroying its host in its earlier forms, it screws with its own future. Evolution in action.
So we may have yet another form of the disease and the summary was that this "pandemic" may gradually become "Endemic" kinda like a type of flu.

Funny, we dont hear from the Creationists or IDers on this.

Sorry for the interruption but Im just tired of only reading nyah nyah politically leaning posts, SO I thought Id bust yer chops by bringing up silly religious beliefs on parade.

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Quote:

SO by destroying its host in its earlier forms, it screws with its own future.

Make 'em sick...but not too sick, or no more hosts!

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@McGentrix,

https://starecat.com/content/wp-content/uploads/im-no-expert-on-covid-19-but-this-is-the-cure-literally-band.jpg

1 Reply

@MiltonVines,

Ha! That's funny.

0 Replies

COVID-19 Best Case Scenario

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