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What if businesses start re-opening and infections/deaths increase?

 
 
livinglava
 
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Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2020 06:32 am
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:

right no its moor of a statistical thing. As I read farther , before the Spanih flu" disappeared" , it had widened its target bases and became less lethal. Without knowing Id guess that some fact in natural selection was at work (Isolation was practiced later and most of the first victims were the young who coul have rturnd from war and were more freely associating).

Not a clue, but Ill bet some degree of mutations had been at work. They are now only excavating graves to cross sample some available virus by PCR. (The technology has become rather more spcific and sensitive in the last 5 or so yrs)

It sounds like more cases were recorded from a larger sampling population that included more people who wouldn't normally report the flu because they would just get through it.

Do you know if the overall death rate correlated with the rise in non-lethal cases?

I would think any pandemic would have an initial mortality curve that grows quickly as many health-vulnerable people contract the disease and die from it, but then there is also a lot of people who are vulnerable but protected by social isolation/distancing, who get infected and die later because many people become carriers/vectors for the disease who don't social-distance as rigorously because they don't really care that much about people besides themselves.
maxdancona
 
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Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2020 08:07 am
There is a real risk of overreaction.

When I go to Fenway to watch the Red Sox, these guys go down the aisle yelling "hot dog!". You raise your hand, he reaches into a metal box for the disgustingly satisfying hot treat. You pass your money down the line of fellow spectators, they pass your hot dog from person to person.

These are traditions that have started before the Spanish flu, and have continued because people enjoy them. They don't need to be stopped.

This is just one example. There are lots of things that (hopefully) won't change once this crisis if over.
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farmerman
 
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Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2020 03:52 pm
@livinglava,
the total deaths worldwide between NOV 1918 and 1921 was repoted as between 50 and as much as 100 million people , then it became less lethal. NATURAL SELECTION had already eliminated the acutely susceptible . Also, the possibility that when the Spanish Flu mutated to its full lethality, these young people had no genetic variability induced immunity to cytokine attacks on the entire immune system and were easily killed. The remaining were those that had a populational immunity . So thelethality decrease may have been an adaptation(I dont know , Im just giving a few options)
farmerman
 
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Reply Sat 18 Apr, 2020 03:58 pm
@farmerman,


What I called a cytokine Flood, this is a definition from Wikipedia

Quote:
Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) or cytokine storm syndrome (CSS)

is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) that can be triggered by a variety of factors such as infections and certain drugs.[3] It occurs when large numbers of white blood cells are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells. CRS is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies.[4][5] Severe cases have been called cytokine storms.[2] When occurring as a result of drug administration, it is also known as an infusion reaction.[1]



Signs and symptoms
Symptoms include fever, fatigue, loss of appetite, muscle and joint pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, rashes, fast breathing, rapid heartbeat, low blood pressure, seizures, headache, confusion, delirium, hallucinations, tremor, and loss of coordination.[4]

Lab tests and clinical monitoring show low blood oxygen, widened pulse pressure, increased cardiac output (early), potentially diminished cardiac output (late), high levels of nitrogen compounds in the blood, elevated D-dimer, elevated transaminases, factor I deficiency and excessive bleeding, higher-than-normal level of bilirubin.[4][6]

Cause
CRS occurs when large numbers of white blood cells, including B cells, T cells, natural killer cells, macrophages, dendritic cells, and monocytes are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which activate more white blood cells in a positive feedback loop of pathogenic inflammation.[4] Immune cells are activated by stressed or infected cells through receptor-ligand interactions.[7]

This can occur when the immune system is fighting pathogens, as cytokines produced by immune cells recruit more effector immune cells such as T-cells and inflammatory monocytes (which differentiate into macrophages) to the site of inflammation or infection. In addition, pro-inflammatory cytokines binding their cognate receptor on immune cells results in activation and stimulation of further cytokine production.[8] This process, when dysregulated, can be life-threatening due to systemic hyper-inflammation, hypotensive shock, and multi-organ failure.
livinglava
 
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Reply Sun 19 Apr, 2020 08:06 am
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:

What I called a cytokine Flood

Is this hyper immune reaction how COVID19 and/or the Spanish Flu are causing death in those people who die as a result of infection?

I haven't read anything about this in any article I've read about COVID19.
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