Economic Cycle in terms of economic indicators

Welcome to A2K.
If I understand your question correctly, I would look at the various signs that we may be on the road to economic recovery in this order:
1) The Consumer Confidence Index. This is, essentially, a monthly poll of where people think the economy is and is heading. Realize that roughly 2/3rd of our economy derives from consumer spending. That stat right now is, I believe, stabilizing;
2) Consumer spending (as evidenced by retail sales). Unlike #1, this is actual money being spent. The numbers out today were not good. Excluding auto sales (impacted by the Cash for Clunkers program) retailing fell in July. That is not good. It was, of course, affected by continuing declines in U-6 (unemployment + underemployment) which stands at something like 16%;
3) Home foreclosures and other debts (specifically credit card) delinquency rates. The data on the former, released yesterday, was bad. That is going to take perhaps another year to stabilize, at best;
4) Consumer Savings. For those of us who have jobs, that is one to watch. People who can control their spending and put away money will eventually need and be able to afford stuff. See #2 above;

5) All of the references you made to employment stats are valid, but you must realize that employment is a lagging indicator. When the economy turned bad, and sales dropped for businesses, it took awhile for U-6 to rise.
Businesses were reluctant to cut employees' hours or to fire people (creating U-3). When things turn around, U-6 will decline first as under-employed get more hours. Only then will the unemployment rate (U-3) fall.
I note today that Ford is going to be increasing production at a couple of its plants meaning, we hope, the need for more workers being called back to work.

I have a couple of notes left over. With regards to #4 above, I think that many folks have gotten religion from our recent economic turmoil. The era of conspicuous consumption with credit card use and the house in the suburbs on a big lot and two gas guzzling cars may be over. At least for some and at least for now.
And we in the U.S. have something like 2 or 3 times as much as retail square footage per capita as other developed countries. The commercial
real estate shoe will fall in the next couple of years.

I'm done. -johnboy-