Fear of the coronavirus?

@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

You forget the transmissibility of corona v seasonal rhinoviri and flus. This stuff is amazingly transmissible. I think they estimated at least 3.5 X transmissable over seasonal flu + the increased initial lthality.

You seem to still be caught up in denial .

So you are for closing the society down every flu season as the death number is almost always near the 100 thousands mark in the US no matter what the transmition rates theory happen to be an if not why not?

Coronivirus seem to be aiming to have a total death rate similar to a mildly bad flue season.

2 Replies

@BillRM,

You're overselling the flu and under selling the corona virus. The CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. In a population where a good number of people get vaccinated, we still have on average 35-30 million cases of which 2% end up in the hospital. The corona virus spreads more easily than the flu with a longer incubation period and sends 19% of those who acquire it to the hospital plus no one is vaccinated against it. If you say 100 million cases that is 19 million hospital stays vs half a million for the flu. That's the rub. If you want to keep the death rate down, you have to have places to give people medical attention. I linked to a study projecting various scenarios in the Coronavirus thread. It shows how this varies from the flu.

1 Reply

@Setanta,

Setanta wrote:

I just voted up all of Oralloy's posts in this thread. Never in all time I've seen him here have I done something like that. I've also voted down all of Bill's posts--but that's nothing unusual. I normally don't vote down posts, but Bill richly deserves it in this thread.

Yes indeed how dare I question the irrational fears of one type of virus over the others with a similar total death totals year in and year out, see the CDC numbers ? Thank god Trump was force to change his tune concerning the virus as I hate agreeing with the man.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

BillRM,

What would it take for you to change your mind? We are already seeing the virus spreading much faster than the flu, and we are seeing the rate of deaths go up much faster than with the flu.

If there are tens of thousands of American deaths in April, will you accept the facts and change your mind? I hope you aren't closed minded to what the medical community sees as a huge threat (including health care workers who are already treating a large number of patients).

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@engineer,

Unlike Coronavirus the flu target groups include the very young down to infants and children so give me a break that this virus is more harmful then the yearly flu we are all so use to.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

If you're interested in the data, I post stuff on the other thread. This is a good starting point. https://able2know.org/topic/546079-5#post-6978504

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Coronavirus: Illinois governor announces rare death of baby

The Illinois health department has announced the first known infant death from Covid-19 in the state.

The Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, said an investigation was under way to determine the cause of death and whether the child, who was younger than one year, had other health issues.

Dr Ngozi Ezike, director of the Illinois Department of Public Health, said: “A full investigation is under way to determine the cause of death. We must do everything we can to prevent the spread of this deadly virus. If not to protect ourselves, but to protect those around us.”

Pritzker said: “If you haven’t been paying attention, maybe this is your wake-up call.”

Among children, recorded illness caused by the coronavirus has been rare. The risk is statistically greater for older adults and people with other health problems. In most cases the virus causes mild or moderate symptoms, which can include fever and cough, but also milder cases of pneumonia sometimes requiring hospitalisation.

Children have made up a small fraction of recorded coronavirus cases worldwide. A letter published in the New England Journal of Medicine by Chinese researchers reported the death of a 10-month-old with Covid-19. The infant had a bowel blockage and organ failure, and died four weeks after being hospitalised.

Separate research published in the journal Pediatrics traced 2,100 infected children in China and noted one death, a 14-year-old. The study found less than 6% of children infected had fallen seriously ill.

Source

0 Replies

@BillRM,

BillRM wrote:

So you are for closing the society down every flu season as the death number is almost always near the 100 thousands mark in the US no matter what the transmition rates theory happen to be an if not why not?

The shortage of ventilators does not impact the flu season.

If we don't slow the spread of COVID-19, we'll easily kill more than a million Americans from lack of ventilators.

If we do slow the spread of the disease, not everyone will need to use a ventilator at the same time, and as one patient recovers and no longer needs a ventilator, it can be moved on to a new patient who has just gotten sick.

1 Reply

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

BillRM wrote:
So you are for closing the society down every flu season as the death number is almost always near the 100 thousands mark in the US no matter what the transmition rates theory happen to be an if not why not?

The shortage of ventilators does not impact the flu season.

If we don't slow the spread of COVID-19, we'll easily kill more than a million Americans from lack of ventilators.

If we do slow the spread of the disease, not everyone will need to use a ventilator at the same time, and as one patient recovers and no longer needs a ventilator, it can be moved on to a new patient who has just gotten sick.

So you are claiming that those with serious cases of the Flu are not put on Ventilators or that people had not have similar fear of running out of ventilators because of the Flu???????

See 2016 news story below.

Quote:

Flu pandemics could lead to ventilator rationing - Baltimore Sunwww.baltimoresun.com › news › investigations › bs-md-sun-investiga...
Jan 16, 2016 - Flu pandemics could lead to ventilator rationing. ... Maryland's attorney general issued an opinion in December that found that the Catastrophic Health Emergencies Act of 2002 gives the governor the authority to ration the machines that support breathing in flu patients suffering respiratory complications.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

They would be put on ventilators if it is necessary. But the flu does not create the crushing need for ventilators that COVID-19 is causing.

1 Reply

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

They would be put on ventilators if it is necessary. But the flu does not create the crushing need for ventilators that COVID-19 is causing.

What crushing need would that be as so far at least there are no repeat no shortage of the machines only the fear of a shortage happening maybe in the near future the same kind of fear as the 2016 flu season news story have for the flu and the machines.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

If everyone gets COVID-19 all at once, more than a million people in the US will die from the lack of a ventilator.

Our only hope is to slow the spread of the disease so that people don't get sick all at once.

2 Replies

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

If everyone gets COVID-19 all at once, more than a million people in the US will die from the lack of a ventilator.

Our only hope is to slow the spread of the disease so that people don't get sick all at once.

So if somehow in some manner everyone who even hear of the name conoravirus show up at the hospitals there would be a problem.

0 Replies

@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

If everyone gets COVID-19 all at once, more than a million people in the US will die from the lack of a ventilator.

Our only hope is to slow the spread of the disease so that people don't get sick all at once.

Next for a million people to die would mean that roughly over 250 millions out of a populations of 450 millions would need to come down with this disease

Does anyone do numbers before posting such concerns as assuming a death rate of four percents if we have no ventilators at all would give 250 millions with the disease.

2 Replies

@BillRM,

The estimate is that 40 - 70 % of the population will be infected before covid19 has run its course.

2 Replies

@ehBeth,

And those that are never infected will never acquire any immunity - unless or until a good vaccine is developed and available.

0 Replies

@ehBeth,

ehBeth wrote:

The estimate is that 40 - 70 % of the population will be infected before covid19 has run its course.

That on it face is complete nonsense.

2 Replies

@BillRM,

No it isn't. It is completely true.

It is quite odd to see you deny reality this way.

New York City has started digging mass graves:
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/31/rikers-island-coronavirus-mass-graves/
https://www.gq.com/story/rikers-island-mass-grave

Fear of the coronavirus?

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