Iowa Caucus Winners are LOSERS!

I was wrong. No one gets the nomination without coming in first or second place in New Hampshire.

Accordingly, the Democratic nominee is going to be either Sanders or Buttigieg -- unless Bloomberg succeeds in upending the whole system, but I think that's unlikely.

When I made my prediction, Biden had been polling second in New Hampshire among likely voters.

That's admirable that you are willing to admit being wrong. But, I think you are being premature at this time. I would wait til after Mar 3 to make your admission.

The history of New Hampshire is pretty clear: first or second place or you don't get the nomination.

The only exception was 1968, when LBJ withdrew after already winning New Hampshire.

If Biden or Bloomberg win the nomination now, that is going to upend an awful lot of political history. Bloomberg is at least trying something new (spending a ton of money on Super Tuesday) so perhaps he has a small chance of succeeding. But I don't see any reason why Biden would be able to defy history.

1956
Democriatic: Adlai Stevenson second place
Republican: I Like Ike first place

1960
Democriatic: John F. Kennedy first place
Republican: Richard Nixon first place

1964
Democriatic: Lyndon B. Johnson first place
Republican: Barry M. Goldwater second place

1968
Democriatic: Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew after winning
Republican: Richard Nixon first place

1972
Democriatic: George McGovern second place
Republican: Richard Nixon first place

1976
Democriatic: Jimmy Carter first place
Republican: Gerald R. Ford first place

1980
Democriatic: Jimmy Carter first place
Republican: Ronald Reagan first place

1984
Democriatic: Walter Mondale second place
Republican: Ronald Reagan first place

1988
Democriatic: Michael Dukakis first place
Republican: George H. W. Bush first place

1992
Democriatic: Bill Clinton second place
Republican: George H. W. Bush first place

1996
Democriatic: Bill Clinton first place
Republican: Bob Dole second place

2000
Democriatic: Al Gore first place
Republican: George W. Bush second place

2004
Democriatic: John Kerry first place
Republican: George W. Bush first place

2008
Democriatic: Barack Obama second place
Republican: John McCain first place

2012
Democriatic: Barack Obama first place
Republican: Mitt Romney first place

2016
Democriatic: Hillary Clinton second place
Republican: Donald Trump first place

One cool thing about history is that it is not the future. Just because something has happened in the past, no matter how many times, does not mean it will happen in the future.

The political scene today is so wacky that I doubt anything can be projected yet. Lets not forget that despite the Dems thinking they are all inclusive, most do not yet know Buttigieg is gay and that Sanders has NO chance in beating Trump. Bloomberg is a giant red flag and Biden still wins nationwide polls

I think you are way off saying Sanders can't beat Trump. The election will not be decided on policies but on turn out. If the Dem candidate, regardless of who it is, turns out Democrats, he or she wins. Clinton did not turn out minorities and narrowly lost. If Sanders turns out voters, he wins regardless of his lack of qualifications.

Just curious. How is 16 years in the House of Reps and 13 years in the US Senate and 8 years as mayor of a capital equate to lack of qualifications? He's much closer to overly qualified to ne.

Bull. Those rare stories of self-proclaimed ignorants are being blown out of proportions for media spectacle's sake.

At best, they're anecdotal. At worst? They're manufactured stories to undermine Buttigieg's campaign.

Even before Buttigieg emerged as a major contender, Michigan leftists were planning to put some sort of gay rights ballot proposal on our ballot in November (I suspect as a ploy to try to motivate college students to vote).

If Buttigieg and that initiative are both on our ballot in November, I suspect that gay rights will be a major election theme this year for the left in Michigan.

Bloomberg is doing something radical and new, so I see a small chance that he will upend history.

But I don't see anything about Biden that would lead me to believe that he also is capable of upending history.

Gay rights are often a part of the motivational efforts to encourage people to vote. Not exactly a new idea.

Similar situations have been proven useful for other minorities as well.

It looks like it's being pushed by the guy who runs Quicken Loans:
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/government/rock-holdings-donates-100000-lgbtq-ballot-initiative

That is a shame.

The Iowa caucus debacle plays right into Trump's 'swamp' narrative

'Congratulations, Democratic Party.

In a display of complete, abject incompetence, and likely enormous anti-Bernie Sanders bias, the historical mismanagement of the Iowa caucuses has gifted President Donald Trump fodder for the very narrative that catapulted him to a shocking 2016 victory: that the "swampy" system is corrupt, soaked in shady money, and should not be trusted.

To make matters worse? That narrative is rooted in reality.'

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/482065-the-iowa-caucus-debacle-plays-right-into-trumps-swamp-narrative

"Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign plans to ask for a partial recount of the Iowa caucus results"
https://apnews.com/74508879cd193d3ba1f3b75909c0945e

It looks like you might be right. Maybe I should have waited.

If Biden secures the nomination after failing in New Hampshire, that is going to be quite an upset.

It looks like the gay rights proposal is foundering and the progressives are resorting to electronic signatures in a last-ditch effort to save it from sinking.

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/group-trying-to-put-lgbt-initiative-on-michigan-ballots-turns-to-electronic-signatures.html

I wonder if the courts will let the progressives get away with that. Electronic signatures are likely to be susceptible to all sorts of cheating. If progressives can't win fairly, that doesn't make it all right for them to cheat.

Buttigieg is out in any case. Michigan progressives' hopes for a gay rights themed election this year are already in tatters. Progressives may as well just concede the election to Mr. Trump.

Automakers support progressive efforts to cheat their proposals onto Michigan's 2020 ballot by using fake "electronic" signatures:

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/michigan-automakers-support-campaign-to-ban-lgbtq-discrimination.html

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2020/04/15/fca-ford-gm-fair-equal-michigan/5138573002/

I'm sure all this progressive cheating will be addressed in court before this is all over.


Those articles are actually from just a few hours after I made my previous post. But I'm not keeping track of the ballot proposal campaigns on a daily basis. Once every two weeks is about the right amount of attention for me to pay to this issue.

The cheaters have officially failed:

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/05/backers-of-michigan-lgbt-rights-ballot-initiative-sue-the-state-for-ballot-access.html

So, that's the end of that I guess.


A good article (written before the failure) about why progressives shouldn't be allowed to cheat:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/ingrid-jacques/2020/05/23/jacques-virus-doesnt-sanction-election-shenanigans/5236483002/

Why are you posting garbage here that has NOTHING to do with the Iowa Caucases? Stop using my thread to SEO **** conspiracy crap.

Because earlier in the thread there was a gay candidate who had a chance of winning, and I mentioned the gay rights initiative in Michigan in relationship to his candidacy.

A place where there is an existing conversation about that gay rights initiative seems a natural place to post news of progressives trying to cheat on that initiative.

I'm also posting updates about it in the "turning the ballot box" thread.



It's not conspiracy crap. Progressives really did try to cheat.

It seems like any time there is voting of any sort, there are progressives trying to cheat.