12
   

Iowa Caucus Winners are LOSERS!

 
 
oralloy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 11 Feb, 2020 11:29 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
Joe Biden is going to be the nominee.

I was wrong. No one gets the nomination without coming in first or second place in New Hampshire.

Accordingly, the Democratic nominee is going to be either Sanders or Buttigieg -- unless Bloomberg succeeds in upending the whole system, but I think that's unlikely.

When I made my prediction, Biden had been polling second in New Hampshire among likely voters.
McGentrix
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 08:00 am
@oralloy,
That's admirable that you are willing to admit being wrong. But, I think you are being premature at this time. I would wait til after Mar 3 to make your admission.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 10:57 am
@McGentrix,
The history of New Hampshire is pretty clear: first or second place or you don't get the nomination.

The only exception was 1968, when LBJ withdrew after already winning New Hampshire.

If Biden or Bloomberg win the nomination now, that is going to upend an awful lot of political history. Bloomberg is at least trying something new (spending a ton of money on Super Tuesday) so perhaps he has a small chance of succeeding. But I don't see any reason why Biden would be able to defy history.

1956
Democriatic: Adlai Stevenson second place
Republican: I Like Ike first place

1960
Democriatic: John F. Kennedy first place
Republican: Richard Nixon first place

1964
Democriatic: Lyndon B. Johnson first place
Republican: Barry M. Goldwater second place

1968
Democriatic: Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew after winning
Republican: Richard Nixon first place

1972
Democriatic: George McGovern second place
Republican: Richard Nixon first place

1976
Democriatic: Jimmy Carter first place
Republican: Gerald R. Ford first place

1980
Democriatic: Jimmy Carter first place
Republican: Ronald Reagan first place

1984
Democriatic: Walter Mondale second place
Republican: Ronald Reagan first place

1988
Democriatic: Michael Dukakis first place
Republican: George H. W. Bush first place

1992
Democriatic: Bill Clinton second place
Republican: George H. W. Bush first place

1996
Democriatic: Bill Clinton first place
Republican: Bob Dole second place

2000
Democriatic: Al Gore first place
Republican: George W. Bush second place

2004
Democriatic: John Kerry first place
Republican: George W. Bush first place

2008
Democriatic: Barack Obama second place
Republican: John McCain first place

2012
Democriatic: Barack Obama first place
Republican: Mitt Romney first place

2016
Democriatic: Hillary Clinton second place
Republican: Donald Trump first place
McGentrix
 
  0  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 11:59 am
@oralloy,
One cool thing about history is that it is not the future. Just because something has happened in the past, no matter how many times, does not mean it will happen in the future.

The political scene today is so wacky that I doubt anything can be projected yet. Lets not forget that despite the Dems thinking they are all inclusive, most do not yet know Buttigieg is gay and that Sanders has NO chance in beating Trump. Bloomberg is a giant red flag and Biden still wins nationwide polls
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 01:46 pm
@McGentrix,
I think you are way off saying Sanders can't beat Trump. The election will not be decided on policies but on turn out. If the Dem candidate, regardless of who it is, turns out Democrats, he or she wins. Clinton did not turn out minorities and narrowly lost. If Sanders turns out voters, he wins regardless of his lack of qualifications.
tsarstepan
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 02:21 pm
@engineer,
engineer wrote:

If Sanders turns out voters, he wins regardless of his lack of qualifications.

Just curious. How is 16 years in the House of Reps and 13 years in the US Senate and 8 years as mayor of a capital equate to lack of qualifications? He's much closer to overly qualified to ne.
0 Replies
 
tsarstepan
 
  3  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 02:26 pm
@McGentrix,
McGentrix wrote:

most do not yet know Buttigieg is gay

Bull. Those rare stories of self-proclaimed ignorants are being blown out of proportions for media spectacle's sake.

At best, they're anecdotal. At worst? They're manufactured stories to undermine Buttigieg's campaign.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 03:36 pm
@tsarstepan,
Even before Buttigieg emerged as a major contender, Michigan leftists were planning to put some sort of gay rights ballot proposal on our ballot in November (I suspect as a ploy to try to motivate college students to vote).

If Buttigieg and that initiative are both on our ballot in November, I suspect that gay rights will be a major election theme this year for the left in Michigan.
oralloy
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 03:37 pm
@McGentrix,
McGentrix wrote:
One cool thing about history is that it is not the future. Just because something has happened in the past, no matter how many times, does not mean it will happen in the future.

Bloomberg is doing something radical and new, so I see a small chance that he will upend history.

But I don't see anything about Biden that would lead me to believe that he also is capable of upending history.
0 Replies
 
Sturgis
 
  5  
Reply Wed 12 Feb, 2020 03:43 pm
@oralloy,
Gay rights are often a part of the motivational efforts to encourage people to vote. Not exactly a new idea.

Similar situations have been proven useful for other minorities as well.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Feb, 2020 03:17 pm
@Sturgis,
It looks like it's being pushed by the guy who runs Quicken Loans:
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/government/rock-holdings-donates-100000-lgbtq-ballot-initiative
0 Replies
 
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Thu 13 Feb, 2020 03:48 pm
@engineer,
Quote:
The election will not be decided on policies but on turn out.

That is a shame.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  2  
Reply Fri 14 Feb, 2020 03:39 pm
The Iowa caucus debacle plays right into Trump's 'swamp' narrative

'Congratulations, Democratic Party.

In a display of complete, abject incompetence, and likely enormous anti-Bernie Sanders bias, the historical mismanagement of the Iowa caucuses has gifted President Donald Trump fodder for the very narrative that catapulted him to a shocking 2016 victory: that the "swampy" system is corrupt, soaked in shady money, and should not be trusted.

To make matters worse? That narrative is rooted in reality.'

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/482065-the-iowa-caucus-debacle-plays-right-into-trumps-swamp-narrative
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Feb, 2020 10:24 pm
"Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign plans to ask for a partial recount of the Iowa caucus results"
https://apnews.com/74508879cd193d3ba1f3b75909c0945e
0 Replies
 
 

 
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