Reply Sat 3 Aug, 2019 07:34 am
News headlines fluctuate from day to day between Trump's latest move toward raising tariffs and moves toward eliminating or postponing such economic actions.

Meanwhile, markets continue to grow despite the instability investors feel due to volatility in political expectations.

Could the reason be that squeamish investors sell and/or avoid buying into markets where they expect tariffs or other threats to hurt growth, and as a result prices move downward to levels where others who are not squeamish of risk for whatever reason, buy in at the depressed prices and cash in on the growth?

Arguably, the strong growth tendencies in the current market are the result of a long build-up of momentum since the recession, which has become the longest continuous period of growth in the history of the market, as I understand it.

All the Obama-era stimulus programs have culminated in growth tendencies all around, and to cash in on those growth tendencies, the Trump regime has come up with this trick of cooking up threats of tariffs etc. everywhere that will trigger selloffs, which can then be exploited by those who act quickly on the lowered prices to buy in, drive up those prices once again with speculation, and thus cash in.

If such volatility wasn't implemented in this way, pricing pressure would be constant due to the aforementioned Obama-era stimulus effects, and the markets would just keep moving upward until price-earning ratios were too high for investors to tolerate, and there would be a major correction.

In the way that things are currently going, however, that potential for correction is being dissipated by lots of little selloffs prompted by fears of tariffs, etc. that end up not coming true or not having the feared effect. So once some investor(s) have been provoked into selling, they miss out on the chance to hold a stock as it grows, and then some new news comes out that Trump is planning to implement more tariffs, and they have to start worrying again about a market downturn and/or whether it will actually come true or not.

Is this an accurate description of the 'Trumponomic' effect on markets, do you think? If so, do you consider it a good or bad thing for investors to be scared into selloffs, only to have markets continue growing until the next scare? Would it be preferable to have the markets simply keep going up until widespread overvaluation results in a more unified correction across the board? Why or why not?
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Brandon9000
 
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Reply Sat 3 Aug, 2019 02:12 pm
I see. The economy sucked under Obama because of Bush, and is great under Trump because of Obama. Nice, self-serving logic.
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