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Facts versus opinions and values. A primer for a post-fact society.

 
 
Reply Fri 26 Jul, 2019 11:27 am
Facts are supposed to be objective. They should be true no matter what your political ideology is; political liberals and political conservatives should be able to agree on what the facts are. This is often not the case. There is a set of facts believed by political liberals and a completely different set of facts believed by political conservatives.

I want to attempt define what a fact is in a way that is testable and objective.

1. A fact is independent of political ideology. Facts are facts whether or not they fit any particular ideological narrative.

2. Facts are objectively testable. I can tell you how to confirm whether a fact is true or not, and if it fails the test, it is not true.

3. Facts are independent of other facts. If the evidence shows the government lied about one thing, it means that one thing is false. It doesn't disprove anything else. Facts can't be used to confirm an umbrella narrative.

- Opinions are not facts even if you start with a fact to get there. (more about this later).

- Values are not facts. If you say "no person should be falsely accused" or "healthcare is a right" or "abortion is murder". These are statements of values that represent your core beliefs. They aren't objective and they aren't testable.


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maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Jul, 2019 11:31 am
@maxdancona,
Some questions I ask myself to test whether my own "facts" are really objective facts.

- What evidence would change my mind about this fact? (is it testable?).

- Do people outside of my ideological view on the topic agree with this fact (is it objective?)

- Are there facts on the other side of this issue that I also accept as true? (generally facts don't all line up on one side).

To formulate my political opinion on any issue, I try to identify the objective facts supporting the other side, and look for weaknesses in the "facts" that support my own side. This is generally a good exercise.
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Aug, 2019 10:20 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

3. Facts are independent of other facts. If the evidence shows the government lied about one thing, it means that one thing is false. It doesn't disprove anything else. Facts can't be used to confirm an umbrella narrative.

The fact is . . . that treating facts as independent of the narratives in which they are employed makes room for bias and slanted power plays.

Example:
The US recently sued Europe for subsidizing Airbus in violation of economic treaties.

The fact may have been that Airbus was in fact getting subsidized.

But in the same article, another fact was presented, which is that Europe has been suing the US for subsidizing Boeing for years, and the US never complies with the ruling by ending the subsidies.

Now if the first fact, that of Europe subsidizing Airbus, was taken independently of the second fact; it would be legitimate to conclude that Europe is in violation of the treaty and should stop the subsidies, assuming the treaty is legitimate and worth obeying (which is an opinion).

However, if the two facts are considered together, we then have to ask why the US never complied with the ruling (was it more lucrative to just pay the fines and go on violating the treaty, for example?) and why Europe began violating the rule as well to subsidize Airbus.

Considering these two facts together may reveal subtle assumptions we might otherwise make, such as assuming that the purpose of the treaty was to prevent the subsidization of companies rather than to trigger the possibility of fining them for violations in order to tax them.

So now we can consider that maybe Europe had sued the US in the past because it wanted a cut of Boeing's big money, but once they decided they could subsidize their own Boeing, they decided to do that instead.

In other words, Europe never wanted to stop subsidies for Boeing, they just wanted an excuse to tax the US. (which is arguably what goes on with various anti-trust fines, climate agreements, etc.)
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Aug, 2019 11:06 am
@livinglava,
Facts are facts.
Conclusions are not facts.
Assumptions are not facts.

Both of the facts you list can be true. If you are having a fact-based discussion, both facts are valid. You shouldn't reject either of these facts no matter what your ideological narrative is. That is the point.


livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Aug, 2019 10:30 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

Facts are facts.
Conclusions are not facts.
Assumptions are not facts.

No, but facts can be woven together in a way that implies certain conclusions, often by leaving out other pertinent facts from the story.

Quote:
Both of the facts you list can be true. If you are having a fact-based discussion, both facts are valid. You shouldn't reject either of these facts no matter what your ideological narrative is. That is the point.

You said that facts stand independently of each other, and my response was that including certain facts while avoiding others can imply/lead bad conclusions without actually using fake facts.

Another common problem is that facts are misinterpreted in order to lead to bad conclusions. Then, if someone is smart enough to notice the misinterpretation and question it, the defensive response will be to assert that the facts are accurate.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Aug, 2019 03:42 pm
@livinglava,
This thread is about facts. Facts don't depend on on conclusions. The conclusion you reach doesn't affect the facts at all (and if it does, than your "facts" aren't facts).

If you are simply saying that people should accept all of the facts no matter which political camp they come from or which ideological narrative they fit or don't fit....

... that is exactly my point. Facts are facts.

The problem I see is that people get confused between conclusions and facts. This makes having any type of factual discussion nearly impossible.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Aug, 2019 02:45 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

This thread is about facts. Facts don't depend on on conclusions. The conclusion you reach doesn't affect the facts at all (and if it does, than your "facts" aren't facts).

You are implying that facts are the end of the story, but they're not. Facts have to be narrated within discourse, and the way you put together facts to make a discursive statement is ultimately what is relevant, not the facts by themselves.

Facts by themselves are meaningless. It's only to the extent that they have an effect on discourse that they matter.

Quote:
If you are simply saying that people should accept all of the facts no matter which political camp they come from or which ideological narrative they fit or don't fit....

... that is exactly my point. Facts are facts.

"Accepting all of the facts" is only a meaningful concept because it implies that people can undermine each others' validity by citing examples of fact-denial.

Ultimately, you have to look at why people debate about 'facts,' in order to understand how facts are used as ammunition and not just as building blocks for logical reasoning.

E.g. it is illogical to reason that taxing CO2 must reduce CO2 emissions. It could have that effect, but it could also have the effect of triggering more tax revenue for government without causing actual CO2 emissions to decrease. So when people deny the climate effects of atmospheric CO2 levels, it is often because they don't want to pay more taxes, not because they are really that interested in denying the effects of CO2. The same people who deny a fact in one political context will embrace it the moment it turns out to work in their favor politically.

In short, people pick and choose what facts they accept/embrace and which they ignore, depending on their political interests.

That's why Al Gore's movie was entitled, "An Inconvenient Fact," and why Max Weber coined the term in the first place.

Quote:
The problem I see is that people get confused between conclusions and facts. This makes having any type of factual discussion nearly impossible.

Maybe they get confused, or maybe they just want to avoid setting themselves up for the conclusion that will be extracted from the facts, if they accept them.

It's much harder to acknowledge facts and then get people to listen to an argument about how a given conclusion is falsely predicated on those facts than it is to just deny/ignore the facts in the first place.

Think about it from a leftist POV, such as when racists make arguments about crime rates or IQ or whatever and anti-racists will try to explain how crime itself can be caused by racism, but the moment they acknowledge a rate difference, the racists will just ignore their reasoning and insist that crime rate differences are proof of moral inferiority/superiority being bio-culturally inherent and not the result of multigenerational patterns of discrimination and resistance.

Facts may be facts, but certain ideologies work better with certain kinds of facts, so people know what they ideologies are that they want to resist, so they end up resisting the kinds of facts that are usually used within those ideologies.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Aug, 2019 08:37 pm
@livinglava,
1) No, I am not implying that "facts are the end of the story". Quite the contrary, I am saying that they are the beginning of the story. You can start with facts to reach a conclusion. But, you shouldn't start with a conclusion.

2) I think you are saying that we need to go beyond the facts to develop conclusions and opinions in order to have a reasonable discussion, or policy, or beliefs. I agree with this. I am just saying that we should separate the facts (which are true regardless of political ideology) from opinions or beliefs.

3) Your example; the premise that taxing CO2 reduces CO2 emission counts as a hypothesis I think. It becomes a fact when we test this premise. We can get real data about the effects of policy on CO2 emissions. This is a good example where the premise can be supported or refuted by real data.

4) My call is for people to start with the facts, and to accept it when there are facts that support the other side of an issue. I would like to have more fact based discussions and policy.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 05:26 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

3) Your example; the premise that taxing CO2 reduces CO2 emission counts as a hypothesis I think. It becomes a fact when we test this premise. We can get real data about the effects of policy on CO2 emissions. This is a good example where the premise can be supported or refuted by real data.

You illustrate another problem with 'facts.' By claiming that implementing a carbon-tax presents an opportunity to collect factual data to test the hypothesis of whether such a tax would in fact reduce CO2 emissions or not, you create a reason to implement a carbon-tax.

Basically you're turning the fact-orientation into a propaganda mechanism for justifying a carbon-tax.

What would happen further if you actually implemented a carbon tax to test whether CO2 emissions would decrease due to such a tax is that those with an interest in maintaining the tax and the revenues/income/investments such a tax would support, would attempt to cut CO2 emissions to prove that the tax is working and thus justify keeping it.

Then, you would have other, anti-tax interests, which would attempt to stimulate more emissions to demonstrate that the tax is ineffective, and thus argue for its elimination. Ironically, this would generate more tax revenues while the tax was in place, which would cause those interests who favor a more robust tax-spend feedback loop to vye to keep the tax AND keep pushing emissions higher to further invigorate the tax-spend feedback loop.

Quote:
4) My call is for people to start with the facts, and to accept it when there are facts that support the other side of an issue. I would like to have more fact based discussions and policy.

I think what you really want is more HONEST discussion. You want people to avoid lying and spinning facts to manipulate the discussion. Instead, you want them to admit when something is true/valid/factual and then make a case based on what they accept to be true.

If you want this, then you have to also be open to multiple perspectives on the same facts. If you want people's honest opinions/analysis, you should not think that proving or disproving certain facts forces them into a position.

That is actually what happens constantly in politics because of certain assumptions that come with facts. Take abortion, for example. Sometimes people will debate whether or not the fetus suffers, whether abortion causes psychological harm to women who undergo the procedure, etc. The assumption is if it can be proven that women don't undergo psychological harm, that nullifies the argument that abortion should be illegal to protect women from such harm. So now you end up with a battle in psychology about how to measure such harm, i.e. because some people want to manipulate the science to prove there is no harm, i.e. because they want to legitimate legal abortion.

maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 06:27 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
Instead, you want them to admit when something is true/valid/factual and then make a case based on what they accept to be true.

If you want this, then you have to also be open to multiple perspectives on the same facts. If you want people's honest opinions/analysis, you should not think that proving or disproving certain facts forces them into a position.


Yes... this is pretty well stated (I don't think I like your use of the word "honesty" for this, but other than that you are stating it well).

I would like to see what I am calling "fact-based arguments". People in an argument should be looking for the key points where they disagree and discussing them (rather throwing insults at each other).

1. I am proposing that people in on opposite sides of an argument should work to find a set of core facts where they agree. I am proposing that each side propose 3-5 facts they think are important... and the other side should say clearly "accept" or "reject".

The goal of both sides during this process should be to find agreement. The side benefit is that it gets each side to understand the points of the other side in a non-combative way.

I am working on a tool to facilitate this... and I have been reading about Toulmin and other theories on arguments. This discussion is helpful.

2) The problem is a confusion about what is a fact and what is a conclusion. Facts exist on their own based on objective data. It is the conclusions drawn from these facts where disagreement happens. Note: I am not saying conclusions are bad (they are obviously necessary), I am just saying that they should be distinguished from facts.

The statement "abortion causes harm to women" is a conclusion (not a fact). It is too vague to be testable, the word "harm" can mean anything and has to do with values and cultural assumptions.

A factual claim would be "women who have an abortion are 2 times more likely to develop migraine headaches." (just an example I made up, I am not making this claim). But... in this case you can do real research and come up with a factual answer based on the evidence as to whether this claim is factually true or not.

As you state, proving a fact doesn't necessarily change someone's conclusion (although sometimes it can).

I believe it helps when a discussion is fact-based... where the focus is on the facts rather then personal attacks.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 06:43 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

1. I am proposing that people in on opposite sides of an argument should work to find a set of core facts where they agree. I am proposing that each side propose 3-5 facts they think are important... and the other side should say clearly "accept" or "reject".

I think the problem you would run into is that is one person says they "accept" a fact unconditionally, their opponent will then use their acceptance to goad them to accept conclusions which they have reasons follow inevitably from the fact.

Quote:
The goal of both sides during this process should be to find agreement. The side benefit is that it gets each side to understand the points of the other side in a non-combative way.

I agree with you that combative attitudes are toxic, but I think the way to overcome that is to understand perspectives you disagree with and explain why you disagree with them.

What causes more combat is ignoring or misrepresenting others' perspectives (strawmanning) in the process of putting forth another POV.

Quote:

The statement "abortion causes harm to women" is a conclusion (not a fact). It is too vague to be testable, the word "harm" can mean anything and has to do with values and cultural assumptions.

So you discuss which forms of harm you consider relevant/valid and which you don't and why. You don't have to reject an overall claim because it is at a general level.

Generalization and detail-specification aren't mutually exclusive and/or conflicting forms of representation. They actually complement and reinforce each other when used well.

Quote:
A factual claim would be "women who have an abortion are 2 times more likely to develop migraine headaches." (just an example I made up, I am not making this claim). But... in this case you can do real research and come up with a factual answer based on the evidence as to whether this claim is factually true or not.

You could make an argument that migraines aren't common among abortion survivors, or that they can be treated with medications, but that doesn't mean there can't be other forms of harm that are also relevant.

maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 07:07 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
I think the problem you would run into is that is one person says they "accept" a fact unconditionally, their opponent will then use their acceptance to goad them to accept conclusions which they have reasons follow inevitably from the fact.


I disagree with this; it implies that the goal of an argument is to defeat an "opponent" rather than to reach an understanding based on facts. If you and I can start from a place of agreement on basic facts, then where we disagree we can discuss the important points rather than just looking to attack.

I agree with you about combative attitudes. I am proposing a process of seeking a set of common accepted facts, and then using these to explore differences in perspective.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 08:35 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

Quote:
I think the problem you would run into is that is one person says they "accept" a fact unconditionally, their opponent will then use their acceptance to goad them to accept conclusions which they have reasons follow inevitably from the fact.


I disagree with this; it implies that the goal of an argument is to defeat an "opponent" rather than to reach an understanding based on facts. If you and I can start from a place of agreement on basic facts, then where we disagree we can discuss the important points rather than just looking to attack.

I agree with you about combative attitudes. I am proposing a process of seeking a set of common accepted facts, and then using these to explore differences in perspective.

All you can really do is explain your understanding of facts and make a case for how you interpret them.

You will always have combative people who seek to undermine you in any way possible, and of course such people can never eliminate the possibility of listening to your argument, the facts its based on, and giving it fair consideration.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 09:27 pm
@livinglava,
1. There are real facts. When you are talking about issues the safety of GM foods, or the reality of global climate change... there is a set of real facts that are agreed upon by the people who have the expertise. These facts aren't really in question.

2. I can't force anyone to accept the actual facts... but it doesn't mean that the facts don't exist.

3. Even if two people accept the actual facts, they can still come up with different conclusions. This is because conclusions include interpretation and values. This is fine, but you should be clear that conclusions aren't facts.

When people confuse conclusions and values with facts it makes meaningful conversation much more difficult.

This is why I am suggesting we should agree on the facts first... to have a fact-based discussion. My suggestion is for each person to list the facts they believe are important and then agree on as many of them as possible.

Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Aug, 2019 11:21 pm
@maxdancona,
In court rooms all across the country, I suspect that there are many trials that are built on circumstantial evidence.

There are many trials where there are no confessions and no smoking gun.

When a case is built on circumstantial evidence, the jurors will have to make a judgment to whether or not the circumstantial evidence proves that the defendant is guilty beyond reasonable doubt.

One piece of circumstantial evidence by itself might not be enough to get a conviction.

But, that one piece of circumstantial evidence combined with other circumstantial evidence might be enough to get a conviction.

Remember, I am referring to cases where there are no confessions and no smoking gun. Only circumstantial evidence.

I suspect that in some cases that prosecutors have gotten convictions with cases built solely on circumstantial evidence.

I suspect that some plaintiffs in civil cases have won lawsuits based solely on circumstantial evidence.

When any case is built solely on circumstantial evidence, the jurors ultimately will have to make a judgement without the benefit of a smoking gun or confession.

My point is that sometimes we have to make judgments using circumstantial evidence.

Sometimes this might result in different conclusions.

There are times when the circumstantial evidence may be very strong.

There are also times when the circumstantial evidence may be weak.

I am using the court room trials as an analogy.
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Aug, 2019 12:45 am
@maxdancona,
Circumstantial Evidence

Quote:
Circumstantial evidence is any evidence that requires some reasoning or inference in order to prove a fact. This type of evidence is sometimes referred to as indirect evidence,” and it may have more than one explanation or lead to more than one conclusion. In many situations, more than one piece of circumstantial evidence may be used to draw the judge or jury to a specific conclusion. To explore this concept, consider the circumstantial evidence definition.

Definition of Circumstantial Evidence

Noun
1.Proof of facts offered as evidence from which other facts may be inferred.

What is Circumstantial Evidence

Circumstantial evidence is evidence which strongly suggests something, but does not exactly prove it. Circumstantial evidence simply helps people draw inferences about a fact, or the events that took place. This type of evidence is, on its own, considered to be weak or ineffective, so it is used in conjunction with direct evidence in both criminal and civil cases. Whether or not the judge or jury makes the intended inference has a major impact on the outcome of the case.

For example:

Mary testifies in court that she saw Robert standing over a man with a bloody knife in his hand. Mary did not see Robert stab the victim, so she can only testify and describe what she saw. This circumstantial evidence is likely not enough by itself to convict Robert, so the prosecution provides other evidence which, when added to Mary’s testimony, leads the jury to the conclusion that Robert stabbed the victim.

Validity of Circumstantial Evidence

There are popular misconceptions surrounding the validity of circumstantial evidence, as many people believe it is not as convincing as direct evidence. In reality, circumstantial evidence is an important tool used by prosecutors to convict people. Circumstantial evidence, which can be derived from a variety of sources, can be used to lay a foundation of belief, and backed up by witness testimony and direct evidence for credibility.

Examples of Circumstantial Evidence

Nearly anything can be used as circumstantial evidence, so long as it helps create a picture of the incident or crime, leading the judge or jury to a valid conclusion. Facts that do not necessarily prove a defendant’s culpability, such as prior threats made to the victim, fingerprints found at the scene of the crime, testimony that a neighbor saw the defendant in the neighborhood, or the fact that the defendant was the beneficiary of the victim’s life insurance policy, are all circumstantial evidence. Even in the absence of an eye witness to the crime, these pieces of evidence, when taken together, certainly lead to the conclusion that the accused is guilty.

For example:

Mark and Bob get into a heated argument, during which Mark declares in front of a room full of people, that he wanted to kill Bob. A week later, Bob is found murdered in his back yard. Mark’s declaration is not direct evidence that he committed the crime, but it gives police a suspect.

How an individual treated or interacted with the victim before the crime is another point that may be used as circumstantial evidence.

For example:

Helen, one of Bob’s coworkers, has been romantically obsessed with Bob for about a year. A few months ago, she began sending him unwanted emails and text messages containing romantic messages, and then gifts began showing up at his home. Bob asked Helen to stop, but she only stopped talking to him at work. Recently, Bob told a friend that he had seen Helen at his softball games, and once saw her following him at the mall. This information is not direct evidence that Helen murdered Bob, but it gives police a second suspect to investigate.

In a civil lawsuit, circumstantial evidence serves the same purpose, to lead the judge or jury to a desired conclusion.

For example:

Leo has filed a civil lawsuit against Fred, claiming that Fred backed into his car in a parking lot, causing substantial damage. In court, Fred admits to being in the parking lot at the same time as Leo, but denies he hit anything, and there were no other witnesses to the incident. Leo presents photos of the parking lot, with a diagram of how the accident occurred, and shows photos of the damage to both vehicles, and points out the red paint transfer from his car to Leo’s bumper.

While none of this is direct evidence of Fred’s culpability in the incident, the circumstantial evidence leads the judge to believe it is more likely than not that there was an accident, and that it was Fred’s fault.

https://legaldictionary.net/circumstantial-evidence/
Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Aug, 2019 12:56 am
I believe that Trump is racist.

I have on multiple occasions presented direct evidence to support this belief and narrative.

I have also on multiple occasions presented indirect evidence that supports this belief and narrative.
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Aug, 2019 01:04 am
1. I believe that the republican party has been waging a war against poor people.

2. I believe that the republican party has been waging a war against social security and Medicare.

3. I believe that the republican party has been waging a war against the Food Stamp program.

I have on multiple occasions presented direct evidence to support this belief and narrative.

I have also on multiple occasions presented indirect evidence that supports this belief and narrative.
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Aug, 2019 01:05 am
@maxdancona,
1. Indirect evidence is just another word for circumstantial evidence.

2. Direct evidence is the smoking gun or confession.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Aug, 2019 05:58 am
@Real Music,
I don't see anywhere in your posts that you are disagreeing with me.

A judgement is subjective. It might be derived from facts, but it is not in itself a fact. Yes, in legal settings jurors are asked to make judgments (which are subjective). In criminal cases the bar is set high (beyond a reasonable doubt), but they are still judgments rather than facts.

The statement "Trump is a racist" is not a factual statement. It is a statement of opinion. I am not saying that it is nor isn't true... I am saying that any conclusion you make about whether Trump is racist or not is subjective. There is no objective test to determine whether Trump is actually a racist or not.

Facts are testable and objective.

0 Replies
 
 

 
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