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Let Them Fight! The Democratic Party Debates are coming soon.

 
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 04:24 am
@Lash,
In 2016, people (including Nate Silver) who were carefully reading the polls started saying "Wait a second, Trump can win" pretty early. This was a case where the polls got it right, but most people went with the media narrative that predicted an easy Hillary victory.

Ironically, Nate Silver posted an article yestertday suggesting that you might be right about Biden.

If you don't believe in scientific polling, what is the alternative?

Lash
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 04:27 am
@maxdancona,
It’s a very bad position to be in—not being able to trust polls or media.

Here’s some context on the Biden situation.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/06/21/will_joe_repudiate_his_segregationist_friends_140612.html
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 04:33 am
@Lash,
Quote:
It’s a very bad position to be in—not being able to trust polls or media.


I feel bad for you.

If the polls start falling for Biden (and they very well might), I will take that as evidence that you are correct. I base my opinions on the best evidence available.

I suspect you will trust any poll that supports your preexisting beliefs.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 04:42 am
@maxdancona,
As I say, tough position to be in. However, if I know the prevailing sentiment among media, pollsters (their owners) is anti-Sanders and anti-Gabbard, I’m suspicious of those two actually missing (!!!) from polls (Sanders was oddly left off a few polls at MSNBC) or not doing well.

I can’t think of any logical reason for them to inflate polling numbers on these two.

The Dems are trying to shut down the criticism.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/449643-democrats-want-white-house-hopefuls-to-cool-it-on-biden-attacks?amp&__twitter_impression=true
maxdancona
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 04:52 am
@Lash,
Quote:
However, if I know the prevailing sentiment among media, pollsters (their owners) is anti-Sanders and anti-Gabbard, I’m suspicious of those two actually missing (!!!) from polls (Sanders was oddly left off a few polls at MSNBC) or not doing well.


Trump supporters and Bernie supporters are very similar in this way. They distrust polls and the media in general. And, they reject any evidence that questions their general feeling that everything is great for their candidate.

I don't mind Bernie (although I don't think he is going to make it). Bernie's supporters can be awfully annoying.

Lash
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 05:00 am
@maxdancona,
I love Bernie supporters! My fam! Laughing Cool
His candidacy is life or death for a lot of people. When you see that cheated and fought by the entire establishment of your country, you can tend to get a little serious.

My candidate vs the establishment: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/28/bernie-sanders-v-the-democratic-establishment-what-the-battle-is-really-about

maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 05:11 am
@Lash,
My prediction is that Bernie continues fading away. I think that down the stretch we will see Elizabeth Warren is going to face a more centrist candidate, either Biden or Pete Buttigieg.

Bernie has a fanatical group of fans, but he is having trouble broadening his appeal to people outside of this core group. His biggest problem is that his message this cycle is alienating people who don't already agree with him. I don't see him gaining many more voters.

I predict that you will see Bernie steadily declining in the polls (and whining about the media will grow steadily louder from his supporters). We will see how right I am.

I am one voter (but I think there are many similar to me). I started being fairly open to another Bernie run. As the race race goes on, his campaign isn't resonating at all with me, and some of the messaging coming from his camp is alienating me. I am less likely to support Bernie now than I was two months ago.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Jun, 2019 05:26 am
@maxdancona,
Your predictions are fueled completely by your own limited perceptions, but we'll definitely see in time.
0 Replies
 
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jun, 2019 02:01 pm
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Jun, 2019 05:47 pm
Biden's handlers say he won't be staying after the debate in the Spin Room. He's the only one to do that.

He may have a little problem tonight. Here are some quotes attributed to him, speaking to his donors:

“I need you very badly,” he told the group.

Biden said he’d gotten into hot soup with “some of the people on my team, on the Democratic side” for his earlier comments about rich people being “just as patriotic as poor people.”

That’s “not a joke,” he said. “I mean, we may not want to demonize anybody who has made money.”

Appearing to suggest that his tax plan would not include excessive taxes on the rich, Biden said “no one’s standard of living change” if he’s elected.

“The truth of the matter is, you all, you all know, you all know in your gut what has to be done. We can disagree in the margins but the truth of the matter is it’s all within our wheelhouse and nobody has to be punished. No one’s standard of living will change, nothing would fundamentally change,” he said.
__________________________________
I can't imagine that this guy won't be taken out tonight.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-wont-demonize-the-rich_n_5d09ac63e4b0f7b74428e4c6
0 Replies
 
 

 
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