Iran and Uranium

It was bound to happen and why not they are probably next on the list.

Timber,

It sure should be a matter of concern. Nuclear proliferation, especially in that region, poses additional dangers that should be avoided if possible. Recent increased efforts by the DPRK to produce enriched, weapons grade material might increase availability of fissionable materials to countries like Iran, Libya and Syria. If Iran can mine uranium and then enrich it sufficiently to produce nuclear munitions, that might certainly complicate efforts to avoid nuclear confrontations.

BTW in re. a high-level defection of one of Saddam's bodyguards. That sure got my attention, but discrete inquiries seem to discount the report. The information can not be confirmed. Darn. I still expect some defections over the next 3-4 weeks. Anyone still inside Iraq after 20FEB is responsible for their own welfare. My best guess is around 0200 hours Baghdad time on 02MAR, but events could move that either way by up to 10 days. A caveat, this is entirely my own estimate and DOES NOT represent any official position or plan.

A quick look around reveals that I'm about 45 days behind the curve. Information indicating that Iran's efforts are further along than previously supposed started showing up in the last half of December. A number of folks have been predicting that Iran could become capable of building nuclear weapons in this time-frame, but the inspections gave no indication that they were this far along. I thought Iran would be joining the nuclear club around 2005, unless they found a supply of fissionable materials. When the DPRK started sprinting toward dramatic increases in refining fissionable material, the danger they would be selling it to Iran was one of the dangers. Oh well, can't keep up with everything. I'll watch Iran a little closer now.

Sneaky, you started the thread -

This development is very scary. Iran is just a wave of the hand away from being controlled by the Mullahs again. And, for those who did not realize before, this is an excellent example of why the USA is for the separation of Church and State!

Well, yeah, I did start the thread ... but it would seem I started it about a month before it became an issue


I do see great potential for complication to arise from this. Its been on my mind quite a while ... long before the original post, in fact. The political situation within Iran is at best unsettled, and will surely be a factor generative of surprise in the matter of the Attack on Iraq. I'll throw up some recent links to the issue in a little while.



timber

my understanding ( i've been wrong before) that Iran justifies creation of nuclear weapons based on the same possession by Israel. They are not being secretive about their intentions. I would add that, in my mind, Iran is the least stabile of all the govenments in the middle east.

Well, administrations of both Mr. Clinton and Mr. Bush attempted to apply pressure on Russia in order to prevent its nuclear cooperation with Iran. But, IMHO, such cooperation is dictated by economic requirements of Russia. If Russians were proposed participation some attractive projects instead, I think, this would be more efficient than diplomatic pressure.

Agreed steissd, plus there is evidence that the Al Queda has reorganized in the eastern parts and does training. This place is much larger, many more people and much more hostile!

I hope that regardless of Iranian nuclear plans, America still has nuclear superiority over Tehran...

America has Nuclear superiority over everone but Russia - and even there it is a question if the delivery system will work! We know what a standoff is when there is nuclears involved - when the will of use goes sky high - now that is tension!!!

IMHO, the reason North Korea isn't considered that hot is because of will of use is not there - they have cried "Uncle" too many times. However, I still consider their potential to be very high!

bookmark

As an Iranian myself, let me tell you a few important points.

The Iranian government, run by mindless opportunist hard liner clerics is indeed a threat to humanity. I'm only 16 years old, and have become a victim of this regime's brutality several times.

First of all, if Mullahs get access to weapons of mass destruction, they won't have merci on anyone. What else would you expect from them? A government that executed 13,000 Iranians over ONE night which were supporters of an opposition party over a decade ago, couldn't care less about life.

If you think that number is large, you are making a big mistake. In fact the number of people executed ever since the hard liner thugs took power 25 years ago exceeds 1,000,000 people.


Fortunately, this regime has lost popularity among Iranians in all aspects. Even their so called "reformist" party lost all support during the past few years. However, unfortunately the media in the west is rather biased about these issues. When the Mullahs get a few hundred thugs to protest against the America, it is reported by many news agencies. On the other hand, last summer when for 10 consecutive nights, hundreds of thousand Iranians in major cities took to the streets, and this news hardly made it to the head lines.

Many former intelligence agents of the Islamic Republic of Terrorism have smuggled out documents containing a lot of interesting information on the regime's nuclear activities.

The regime claims that these activities are for electricity and things of that nature, however the world found out that the Mullahs say a lot of things, most of them lacking logic and sense. It was only a few weeks ago when Iran's parliamentary elections were held and boycotted by the majority of Iranians. The regime's methods of cheating were so absurd and preposterous, that they didn't bother and to plan before doing so. Thus the outcomes in some cities exceeded 100%. In one case 110%. Yes people, this is whom your dealing with. The same people who claimed all their nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes and this and that, have now admitted to buying technology from various agents across the world. Many centrifuges have been found in the out skirts of Tehran, that were designed to purify Uranium.

Welcome Paya!

Let's suppose for a moment that the worse fears about Iran and nuclear weapons are true.

After the Iraq debacle with WMD, who would belive us?

Ya got that right, Jim.

Thanks Joe.