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This one has stuck me - Quantitative Methods (Finance/Maths)

 
 
RARRR
 
Reply Fri 28 Mar, 2014 01:18 am
Should you buy a horse for $8000? (for the purpose of taking children for rides)

You only have $3000 of your own money (of which you can get 6% interest pa compounded monthly..)

You would need to borrow the remaining $5000 (bank charges 10% interest pa compounded monthly..)

You expect the horse to have a working life of 10 years, but the bank is only willing to give you a loan for 5 years.

Monthly Gross Returns from working with the horse are expected to be $900 each month

Fees are estimated at $400 each month

After 10 years the horse will be retired and you will collect $500 (salvage value)




a. Conduct a cost benefit analysis. Will you buy the Horse?

b. Suppose you bought the horse. Other people are interested in buying it as a pet but as it gets older the price goes down.
The price at which you can sell the camel goes down at the rate of 0.5% per month from its initial value.
You can use diminishing value depreciation calculation as an approximation of market force.
However noone wants to buy a 9 year old horse

Do you sell your beloved animal, and if so, when?

c. Suppose the bank hikes up the interest rate to 11% pa. What does this change?

My initial thoughts:
1. I need to calculate the repayments
2. Find the NPV (Although this would be easy in excel I am supposed to be able to do this on paper.... doing NPV with 120 calculations seems silly?
3. Compare IRR's

Maybe I need to consolidate the monthly payments/fees into 1 years expected income and then calculate using NPV using the pa interest rate?
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raprap
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Mar, 2014 01:09 am
@RARRR,
Roll everything down to a per month basis

Lost capital on the horse ($3K*0.06/12 per month)
Loan (payment= $5K@10% for 5 years)
Income -$9M/mo
Fees ($4M/mo)
Addem up find net monthly income.

Run this out to the end (120 months) and add $500 (this is your answer a)

Do you have a camel or a horse?

Salvage value as a function

Set the whole thing up as an equation--
The monthly expense is $ M/mo where M is an known constant
The month is n
Value of horse is V which is given by $8K*(1-0.005)^n
n=0 V=V0
n=1 V=0.995V0
n=12 V=0.941V0
n=36 V=0.835V0
n=72 V=0.697V0
n=119 V=0.552V0
n=120 V=0.0

Intuitive answer--sell the beast at 119 months (answer to b)

Third answer is recalculating the monthly payment @11% rather than 10%--your changing one fixed cost in the monthly cost. Reapply process in the first part.

Rap









cloudy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Mar, 2014 08:42 pm
@raprap,
But no one want to buy a horse in year 9th. So I think the market value of horse at year 9 should be 0.
you cant sell a horse after 119 months.
So the answer here should like " wont sell you beloved animal". Is that right Rap?

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