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Sat 2 Nov, 2013 04:34 pm
Hi, group,
Semi-retiree here with newfound interest in probability, slowly working my way through the problems in Wm Feller's excellent book. Problem 9 in section II.10 is: If n balls are placed at random into n cells, find the probability that exactly one cell remains empty.
Here's my original solution:
(i) There are n^n possible distributions of n balls into n cells so the probability of each distribution is n^(–n).
Now we count the number of distributions that have exactly one empty cell.
(ii) Select one of the n balls to leave out-- there are n ways to do this;
(iii) then there are n! ways to distribute the remaining (n–1) balls into the n cells such that exactly one cell remains empty;
(iv) finally we can place the leftover ball into any of the (n–1) cells that already contain one ball;
(v) therefore, multiplying (ii), (iii) and (iv), there are n*n!*(n–1) distributions of n balls in n cells with exactly one empty cell;
(vi) multiplying by (i), the required probability is n*(n–1)*n!*n^(–n).
My answer is exactly TWICE the answer Feller gives at the end of his book:
C( n,2 )*n!*n^(–n).
Where am I wrong, and what is my mistake? I've Roman-numbered the steps in my reasoning above so you can refer to each step easily.
Please note that I'm NOT asking for the correct solution. I can get Feller's result as follows: From the n balls, there are C( n,2 ) ways to choose two with which to form a "dumbbell," thereby reducing the problem to placing (n–1) items-- the remaining (n–2) balls plus the dumbbell-- into n cells, and that equals n!. I want to know where my original logic failed, since many of my solutions are often off by a factor of two, which I eventually figure out, but I can't seem to figure this one out.
@X-man,
In (ii), you select a ball to keep out. Call it ball X.
In (iv), you select a cell for that ball. Call the ball that is already in that cell ball Y.
X and Y end up in the same cell.
You will double-count this arrangement when ball Y is selected in (ii) and ball X is already in the cell chosen in (iv).
@markr,
Excellent, markr, I explicitly worked out the case for n=4 and you're absolutely right. I guess the kind of intuition where you know this beforehand just comes with practice, huh?
@X-man,
Yes, or sometimes you put your formula to a test, find out that it's wrong, and then have to figure out why.