William F. Buckley Jr.: Let there be light

William F. Buckley Jr.: Let there be light
By William F. Buckley Jr.
Published 12:00 p.m. PST Friday, April 2, 2004

It was, to put it calmly, infuriating to be told by OPEC, at a moment when gasoline prices were rising, that production of oil would be reduced by 4 percent (1 million barrels per day).

A Saudi prince sought to ease the pain, present and prospective, by coming to Washington and informing President Bush that Saudi Arabia would guarantee the world against any shortage of oil. That was a way of saying that a diminution in supplies, if critical, would be offset, noblesse oblige, by a Saudi hand opening up the faucet, as needed. It was nice to hear this, and also humiliating. The industrial world winces on being reminded of our increased dependency on the technology, reserves and graces of Saudi Arabia.

But perspective here is useful. We consume, in the United States, about 20 million barrels per day, importing 10 million of them. It is comforting to remind ourselves that we are the largest producer of oil (about 9 million barrels per day) in the world. But our reserves are not unlimited, while the Saudis are confident that, if necessary, they could ramp up production to 10 million barrels per day. Business Week reports that "if demand is really strong (the Saudis) insist, the kingdom could build up to 12 million bbl. a day by 2016 and hold that level out of existing reserves until 2033."

Again in search of perspective: The pain of our gasoline prices doesn't lessen by inspecting the scene abroad, but comparing prices blunts the edge of our indignation. We have been paying, according to U.S. government figures, an average of $1.76 per gallon of gasoline. In constant dollars, we paid $2.99 for a gallon in March 1981. And the price Americans pay for gasoline is about one-third the price Europeans pay.

We do have, of course, government reserves. These amount to 22 billion barrels -- good, by simple arithmetic, for about three years. Obviously the use of these reserves is not to be contemplated as the answer to a 4 percent OPEC reduction.

We move inevitably to the question that politics simply refuses to take up, an approach not likely to be heard, in the months ahead, from the lips of George Bush or John Kerry. It is, of course, nuclear energy.

Once again the search for perspective. After capital investment, the cost of nuclear generation per unit of energy is 1.76 cents, to be compared with coal (1.79), oil (5.28) and natural gas (5.69). The cost of a new nuclear plant is viable when the price of natural gas consistently tops $5 per million BTU (British Thermal Units). Gas has topped $10 per million BTU, though it has since fallen back to about $3, but is recently rising.

From it all, we remind ourselves, or should, that the failure to proceed with nuclear energy production results from the crowning industrial superstition inherited from the 20th century. While nobody was paying much attention, France proceeded, over 20 years, to build up nuclear plants to supply 75 percent of its electricity. The disaster at Chernobyl, following the threatened meltdown at Three Mile Island, turned attention away from nuclear energy and even away from a discussion of it. But reality is at work here. A Stanford professor writes, "With high probability, the countries of the world will face a decision between greatly expanded nuclear energy and a greatly reduced standard of living."

We are not going to succeed with campaigns to reduce our consumption of electricity or to ration our recreational driving by inveighing against the people who buy high-consumption cars in Detroit. They are paying for their peculiar appetites -- the cars are expensive, the cost of filling their tanks is high, and no one can persuasively argue that the marginal extra consumption of oil is critical. In Europe, they all use economy cars, and the price of gasoline is, as noted, three times higher than our own.

It will be a long way off, perhaps even after the Bush family gives up the White House, before we develop other means of heating our houses and propelling our automobiles. But our problems are manmade problems, ones we impose on ourselves, not problems imposed on us by fossil-fuel shortages. With breeder reactors, the uranium and thorium supply will last for billions of years.