Shut Down the Ethanol Plants NOW!

July 19, 2012 - 8:28 PM
HOUSTON - The largest drought in more than half a century strengthened its grip on the United States this week, particularly in the Midwest and High Plains farming states, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report released Thursday.

More than 70 percent of the Midwest was in some stage of drought this week, up from 63 percent last week, according to the report by climate experts. Half of the Midwest, which produces about 75 percent of the country's corn and soybean crop, was in severe to exceptional drought, up from about a third last week.

TOO LATE FOR CORN
In the top corn growing state of Iowa, the 1.1 million corn
acres rated "very poor" by the government are likely a total
loss, with the crops in the poorest shape on the hillsides or
growing in sandy soils that prevented the plants from tapping
subsoil moisture, said Roger Elmore, extension agronomist at
Iowa State University.
In eastern and southern Midwest, where the drought
conditions are most severe, some farmers were already gathering
poorly pollinated corn plants for animal feed or plowing down
plants that will yield no grain.
"It's getting pretty late in many areas, so it's going to be
tough to do a whole lot of good even if we do get a turnaround,"
said Joel Widenor, agricultural meteorologist with Commodity
Weather Group in Maryland.
Seventy-one percent of the U.S. corn crop was pollinating as
of Sunday, compared to the five-year average of 36 percent, USDA
said.
Of the top 10 corn producing states, Missouri and Indiana
were suffering the most, with just 7 and 8 percent,
respectively, of the corn crops in good or excellent condition,
compared to the five-year averages of 56 percent for each,
according to the USDA.
The entire state of Missouri was declared a disaster area
due to the drought and the U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom
Vilsack on Wednesday declared areas of eight other states
disaster areas, including parts of Indiana and Arkansas.
There was a chance of rain in the next week that could help
boost yield potential in Missouri, said Max Glover, a University
of Missouri extension agronomist based in Shelby County.
"They certainly won't achieve full yields but they will
escape having to feed the stalks to the cows," Glover said.
Some fields may produce only 20 to 40 bushels per acre of
grain, compared to the average yield in the state last year of
114 bpa. However because of the blistering drought, demand for
forage was strong due to poor pasture conditions, Glover said.
"There are some fields in Indiana that will provide near
zero grain whether or not it rains this week," said Tony Vyn,
extension agronomist at Purdue University.

Corn and soybean crops have worsened steadily over the past month as a devastating, record drought has taken hold. Corn has been hit the hardest with about 45 percent of the nation's crop in poor-to-very-poor condition.

Many analysts say no amount of rain can repair the damage in corn fields, although it still could benefit soybeans. "The corn crop's gone. It's not going to help corn and beans are still marginal," Telvent DTN analyst Darin Newsom said.

Newsom and other analysts are beginning to predict the corn harvest will produce yields of 130 bushels per acre or less of corn.

Smaller Harvests
A drought in 1988 led to a 31 percent drop in corn production from a year earlier and a 20 percent decline for soybeans, USDA data show. Corn output in Iowa, the biggest U.S. grower, probably will fall 33 percent from 2011, Doane Advisory Services Co. said last week after surveying crops. Soybean output may drop to the lowest in nine years, Doane said.

Iowa farmers will harvest 1.58 billion bushels of corn, down from 2.356 billion in 2011, and the smallest crop since 1995, senior economists at the St. Louis-based researcher said last week after traveling 1,600 miles (2,574 kilometers) measuring yield potential across four states the past four days. Yields will plunge 32 percent to 117 bushels an acre from 172 bushels last year, the smallest since 1993

Cutting production, though, could produce a bigger political backlash from another key contingency in an election year: American drivers. Since other additives have been phased out over the past five years, gasoline refiners have overhauled their plants and rely on ethanol to produce high-octane fuel that burns cleanly enough to meet air quality standards.
A prolonged interruption in ethanol production could produce a spike in the price of gasoline, according to Tom Kloza, publisher of the Oil Price Information Service.
“You can’t suddenly go to a business that’s manufacturing 9 million barrels a day of gasoline and say ‘Were going to get rid of ethanol,’” he said. “You’d have chaos.

The EU has decided to reduce its biofuel quota for transportation from 10 percent down to only five percent by 2020. What was once considered a clean solution to climate change is becoming a threat to food security.
The EU had originally planned to raise the percentage of ethanol in gasoline to 10 percent by 2020 in order to reduce CO2 emissions. However, a debate over the correlation between biofuel and world food prices has politicians changing their minds. EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard and EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger want to reduce the quota to five percent.
The debate has diminished the allure of agrofuels in European politics, says Jürgen Maier, director of the Environment and Development Forum in Berlin.
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