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Charts, graphs & the economy: from 2011 into a new year .....

 
 
msolga
 
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 06:10 pm
Here's a thread for all 3 of us here who are "chart & graph people"! Wink
(that'd be 4 of us if nimh was still around.)

But I've just been sitting here staring at these charts, trying to connect the various dots & make sense of it all. What do these charts tell us about 2011 & what's to follow? (I confess I don't feel wildly optimistic.)

These are Alan Kohler's (the Oz ABC's finance analyst) top charts from 2011. (He's a real chart & graph man, often using them to illustrate his points during his segment on the 7 pm news)

Some of these charts are specifically about Australia, but quite a few aren't.

Anyway, take a look if you're interested, skip the thread if not .... & make any comments & predictions based on your observations, if so inclined ....

I hope I haven't ruined you day.
Cheers & welcome to 2012!


Quote:

Top 10 charts of 2011

By ABC's Alan Kohler
Posted December 30, 2011 10:11:58


The year 2011 has almost drawn to a close. And what a turbulent year it was. Alan Kohler, a man who loves a good chart, looks back on his favourite charts of 2011 and what they say about where we’ve been and where we’re heading.



Share price comparisons:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3751402-3x2-700x467.jpg

Are share prices cheap or expensive after the big fall that occurred in 2008? Depends on your time frame. Compared to the post-1985 average valuation, they're cheap. Compared to the pre-1985 average they're a bit expensive. Compared to the bottoms that usually happen after strong bull markets (5-7), they're very expensive.


The Gloomy Words Index:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3751426-3x2-700x467.jpg

What better way to measure the economy than the Fed Gloomy Words index which measures the gloominess of the members of the Federal Open Markets Committee, going by the minutes of their meetings?


The deficit/debt scatter graph:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3751438-3x2-700x467.jpg
This year was all about sovereign debt and government deficits. This chart graphically shows the worst (Japan) and the best (Australia) and the OECD average.


The debt ceiling and US presidents:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3751450-3x2-700x467.jpg

In August America got a fright when the Republican-controlled Congress refused to raise the debt ceiling to allow the government to borrow more. This chart shows that the debt ceiling was increased by both Republican and Democrat presidents.


The household debt high:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3752328-3x2-700x467.jpg

Australia's government debt may be among the world's lowest, but not our household debt - it was among the highest, although we've been overtaken since then.


US federal government spending as a percentage of GDP:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3752338-3x2-700x467.jpg

It's been heading inexorably higher for 100 years. Yikes! No wonder the US is struggling.


House price comparison:


http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3752360-3x2-700x467.jpg

Despite all the comparisons to Japan, the US is actually doing worse than the former Asian powerhouse as house prices drop much further and faster - at least Japan had a slow descent.


Demographics and share prices.:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3752390-3x2-700x467.jpg

This chart shows the price earnings ratio of shares and the ratio of middle-aged to old-aged people - old people sell shares, middle-aged people buy them. As the number of old people rises, the valuation of shares fall - and that's what lies ahead of us.


Emerging nations:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3752400-3x2-700x467.jpg

Emerging? China and India are re-emerging. And so, we move on to 2012.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-30/kohler-10-favourite-charts-of-2011/3751208

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msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 06:14 pm
@msolga,
Oh & don't fell you have to be an economics "expert" if you'd like to comment on any or all of these charts ....
I most certainly am not! Wink
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 06:21 pm
@msolga,
From a local (Oz) perspective, after checking out the "debt levels" chart, I have a sudden mad urge to chop up all our credit cards for a couple of years, to encourage us to live within our (personal) means for a change!

Quote:
Australia's government debt may be among the world's lowest, but not our household debt - it was among the highest, although we've been overtaken since then.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 06:33 pm
@msolga,
....& looking at this ....
I'm feeling almost wistfully nostalgic for the good ol, pre-global economy days ... when we weren't all so interdependent.
I know, I know .... totally unrealistic, but this just looks such an unholy mess for all of us to be in together!
I gotta stop looking at this one!

Quote:
The deficit/debt scatter graph:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3751438-3x2-700x467.jpg
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 06:55 pm
Were any of those charts supposed to reflect data from 2011? If so, I missed it. Looks like they all reflect data from 2010 and earlier.

From the introduction in the article, it sounds like they are ranking the charts according to popularity/page clicks that were done in 2011.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 07:16 pm
@Butrflynet,
Yes, most of those were his favourite charts from 2011, Butrflynet.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2011 07:29 pm
@msolga,
Oh I see ... a few stopped around the time you said.
So I guess one supposes things are actually worse now?
0 Replies
 
 

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