U.S. News and World Report 11/3/03
Seeking an Edge
By James M. Pethokoukis
Google aims to stay No. 1 in search engines as big-bucks competitors circle around
Internet users are estimated to execute more than 550 million Web searches globally each day as they quest for information ranging from the whereabouts of old college boyfriends to the latest English premier soccer league standings or The Matrix: Revolutions "spoilers." And, of course, porn. Of those half-billion queries, about a third use Google--far more than rivals Yahoo! (21 percent), MSN (18 percent), and America Online (11 percent).
So it's no wonder that Google is in the cross hairs of some big-time Internet players who think search could be a hugely profitable business. In July, Yahoo! bought Overture for $1.6 billion in a cash and stock deal that included search outfits AltaVista and Fast (the company behind alltheweb.com, which Overture had itself purchased in February). Those moves follow Yahoo!'s purchase of specialty search-provider Inktomi in March. Then there's Microsoft, the 800-pound gorilla of tech (or whatever its $49 billion wad of cash weighs), which announced in April the creation of its own search technology for the MSN site. A prototype "MSNbot" can now be detected crawling around the Web as the company works to develop an index of sites.
Win-win? The three companies "are now all squarely competitors," says Safa Rashtschy, E-commerce analyst at US Bancorp Piper Jaffray. "And with the way the industry is growing, it may be a win-win scenario. But it might also be winner take all. And this is why everyone is concerned about Google. It could be the one."
Even so, it's not clear how big a win it will be. Just because something is popular doesn't mean it will be profitable--as buyers of Internet stocks found out to their dismay. Yet even as the overpriced issues fell to Earth, Internet usage kept going up, led by omnipresent E-mail. The next most popular online activity: Web searching.
What has changed the landscape is the realization that search, once an unexciting business and a mere loss leader to help bring in business to portals such as Yahoo! or MSN, is now making money. Overture led the way in 1998 when it figured how to make money from search by charging advertisers to be included in a directory of paid-only links.
Each time an advertiser's link is clicked, it pays a fee to the search provider. Instead of a shotgun advertising approach, businesses can laser-sight consumers who are interested in their product. "There's now a business plan in place that makes it possible for search to be profitable," says Yahoo! Chief Operating Officer Daniel Rosensweig.
Pay to play. These paid listings (which appear on the right-hand side of a Google screen) are completely separate from the index of relevant Web sites a person might be looking for. Go to Google or Overture and type in "Chicago" and "Cubs" and "failure," and you'll get added listings for various sellers of Cubbie merchandise.
A $50 million contract with AOL in 2000 gave Overture needed momentum and led to partnerships with Yahoo!, MSN, and Lycos. Overture had sales of $667 million last year, and analysts expect sales to top $1 billion this year, in part from 80,000 advertisers who receive a total of more than 500 million clicks each quarter. Overall, paid advertising on search engines is growing at an estimated 35 percent a year and may more than triple from around $2 billion this year to $7 billion by 2007, according to US Bancorp Piper Jaffray research. And while Overture is the sales leader, privately held Google is close behind with an estimated $500 million to $750 million in revenue thanks to its popular paid listings, up from $300 million last year.
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