0
   

Investors expectations in the height of the crisis/now (Equity market)

 
 
Cerban
 
Reply Wed 28 Oct, 2009 07:07 am
If you were to answer two questions like:
1) What did investors expect/fear at the height of this crisis?
2) What do they expect/fear now?

And you were to look at only the equity market, and use the market data to trace the effects of the recent financial crisis, How would you proceed?
How do you explain how the market prices reflect expectations for future economic growth, inflation, the future monetary policy stance, default risk, liquidity and other risks?
Can you show where where and when these expectations shifted as the crisis developed and in the subsequent partial recovery? Possible links to relevant news event?

I know it's a pretty complex question, but I just want tips on where and when to look, and how to proceed?
  • Topic Stats
  • Top Replies
  • Link to this Topic
Type: Question • Score: 0 • Views: 1,717 • Replies: 1
No top replies

 
Linkat
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Oct, 2009 08:26 am
@Cerban,
Sounds like a home work question to me. I will give you what I feel and how I react which is unlikely to be how everyone or even the majority act/feel. The rest if this is homework is for you to do a bit more research.

1)I feared losing my job - as far as my personal investments - most were for long term/retirement and for my children's education. Working in the financial industry and majoring in economics, I realized that for my personal investments, there was little to worry as I would not be using investments I had in equities at the earliest 8 years (when oldest would be going into college). Fortunately for me, my short term investments were properly invested in short-term fixed income vehicles so for investment purposes I had little worry. And took advantage of the down market to invest in equities. The other worry I had was for future sale of my condo - hoping to sell next year.
2) Current fear - sale of my condo - we hope to sell and buy a house next year. I do expect the market to slowly recover, however, not sure how slow. And still have uncertainity about the job market and potential for outsourcing of jobs/future layoffs and continued cutbacks of benefits.

Market prices always reflect future expectations. How? Simple logic...if the majority of investors expect the market to grow in the near future, they would have put money into the market pushing the equity prices up even before you would actually see a true return in a company's profit. (the buy low concept) - if you are uncertain of the future (whether you expect the market to continue to decline or go up) you are less likely to make a move...
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Where is the US economy headed? - Discussion by au1929
The States Need Help - Discussion by Robert Gentel
Fiscal Cliff - Question by JPB
Let GM go Bankrupt - Discussion by Woiyo9
Sovereign debt - Question by JohnJD
 
  1. Forums
  2. » Investors expectations in the height of the crisis/now (Equity market)
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 05/01/2024 at 10:18:16