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WHERE IS THE BOTTOM ?

 
 
Reply Mon 10 Nov, 2008 06:02 pm
general motors shares hit a 62 year low , the stockmarket in general still goes lower , more mortgage forclosures , canada's giant (at one time) phone and electronics giant NORTEL keeps falling and is cutting several thousands more jobs .
anyone want to guess if there is a bottom somewhere ?

waiting at the barber today , i read a disturbing article in a business magazine : japan's stock market has been falling since 1989 ! while there have been occasional upticks , the general trend is still DOWN !
i'm beginning to wonder if all the talk about the economy and stockmarket recovering within a couple of years is just idle talk ?

listened to james cramer (mad money) on the donny deutsch show . cramer does not expect the stockmarket to recover for another five years - and he seems to have a pretty good track-record in the business . he said that he had taken enough money out of the market to see his elder daughter through university and hopes when his younger daughter is ready for university in another 5 years , the market will start to improve .

is that realism , pessimism , or what ?

we don't have much money in the stockmarket and should have put all our "extra/fun" money into "guaranteed investment certificates " rather than into the shares of a solid canadian bank . the canadian bank shares are being pulled down even though canadian banks seem to be doing quite well when compared to U.S. banks . it seems that no one trusts the banks any more .
still , it would have been worse - much worse - if we had put the money into general motors or NORTEL .

are you hopeful that the north-american (and world) economy will recover within the next two years , five years ... ?
what signs are you looking for to indicate a recovery - more jobs , increased income , low inflation ... or what ?
hbg
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Nov, 2008 03:12 pm
@hamburger,
and today the gloomy news continue :

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-extend-slump-amid/story.aspx?guid=%7B58CAD4FA-E0DD-49F5-9884-BB76F8ECB1B7%7D&dist=msr_1

Quote:
U.S. stocks extend slump amid lowered earnings and outlooks

By MarketWatch
Last update: 12:00 p.m. EST Nov. 11, 2008MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE
U.S. stocks slip at start after Toll Brothers Inc. and InterContinental Hotels Group noted downturns in the last month and as American Express Co. converted into a bank to get speedier access to U.S. government cash. See full story.

Citi unveils housing relief plan
Citigroup Inc. releases details of a plan that it says will help mortgage borrowers remain in their homes. See full story.

Starbucks' shares fall on disappointing results
Shares of coffee giant Starbucks are under pressure early Tuesday on the heels of a disappointing quarterly profit report. See full story.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122641506818517401.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Quote:
NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks pared much of their earlier losses after a Federal Reserve official said the Fed still has plenty of ammunition to help consumers and corporations withstand a global economic slowdown.

For much of the session, stocks had pointed sharply lower as dismal corporate outlooks and more fears about the automotive sectors weighed on trading. Moreover, reports that strains were mounting on current financial-sector bailout plans weighed on the market broadly.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12markets.html?hp

Quote:
November 12, 2008
Retail Worries Help Push Markets Lower
By JACK HEALY
Wall Street tried to come back from a wide deficit on Tuesday afternoon as languishing stocks regained some of their early losses. But the run stalled out.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which was down 300 points at mid-day, was 138 points lower about 10 minutes before the end of trading, and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was off about 1.9 percent.


i doubt anyone knows where the bottom is .
i say , enough already !
hbg
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Tue 11 Nov, 2008 03:22 pm
This is a bear market, and the effects of the credit breakdown have yet to filter through the economy.....the bad news will be coming for months. We are starting to see the fallout in the retail side, the highly leveraged chains failing, after that we will see the commercial real estate collapse.

The bottom? That is a long ways away. Before we get there we need to collect the will to reform the financial industry. Currently, we are going the other way, handing them our children's money and hoping against reason that the industry ruling class will do right by the American people.
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Nov, 2008 06:02 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawk wrote :

Quote:
We are starting to see the fallout in the retail side


canadian business news just reported that RONA (a smaller version of american HOME DEPOT) , is signalling lower sales and lower profits .
since re-sales of "slightly used" homes have dropped , there has been a downturn in renovation work .

the problem of the BIG THREE automakers is hitting canada's auto industry and its suppliers (such as MAGNA) particularly hard since almost 80% of all automobiles produced in canada were destined for export to the USA !
that's a really big problem , since no one has any idea where those laid-off workers might be gainfully employed . the unemployment insurance fund is going to run dry quickly .
hbg
0 Replies
 
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Nov, 2008 06:03 pm
@hawkeye10,
Instead of steadying the financial system the executives are lining their pockets and carrying on business as usual as the banks and corporations failure do not affect them. Their take have been safely stashed away.
0 Replies
 
 

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