Re: China Ascending
Finn dAbuzz wrote:
Remember the 90'sa when conventional wisdom had it that America was in decline and Japan was in ascension? Where did that go?
How many car workers were there in the US during the 90's?
How many are there today?
What percentage of cars in the US were Japanese during the 90's?
What is that percentage today?
How is Ford doing? And why?
How is GM doing? And why?
How many Japanese/partly Japanese consumer durables do you have in your home at this moment in time? Most of them? 50% of them?
Now, if the Japanese can so effectively infiltrate, change, and in some sectors, dominate the US consumer market with their relatively small population, imagine what a collosal country like China will be able to achieve, once it gets its act together and really
starts to roll things out.
Clearly, the health of the US economy doesn't hinge on its auto industry.
The predictions of the 90's were not that a relatively small nation would eventually dominate some sectors of the US consumer economy. They were that Japan would leap over the US and dominate the global economy.
These predictions were flawed because they didn't appreciate that the societal and political forces that initially fueled the Japanese economy would eventually stall it.
This same flaw is within current predictions about China.
There is no rational reason to believe that China will "get its act together" any time soon.
The numerous recent scandals concerning the quality and safety of its exports is only beginning to have their ill effect. It will get worse, even if there are no new scandals, and we can safely bet there will be.
The massive monument to autocratic central planning, the Three Gorge Dam is almost finished and Chinese environmental activists ( a rare breed that cannot afford to be hyperbolic) are predicting it will be the source of enormous environmental disasters. It is only one of very many environmental tinderboxes created by a tyrannical regime that is hell bent on seeking power and completely intolerant of criticism.
Can you say "Chernobyl?"
Contrary to what the Chinese Masters believe, the Beijing Olympics promises to be a disaster for them. Even the all powerful Party cannot, within a few years, reverse decades of environmental negligence. Watch as numerous foreign atheletes complain about air quality.
Watch as the Chinese Masters' desire to control the flow of information into and out of their nation is overwhelmed by the Olympic media blizzard.
Every medium covering the event is going to want to cover side stories.
Ironically, if China gives them free reign, most of these stories will be positive because of the liberal bias of the media and because the feel good nature of Olympic coverage. However the Chinese Masters will not take such a risk, and their restrictions will result in exactly the opposite. Nothing infuriates the Media more than attempts to silence it.
We can also rely on activists for freedom in China attempting to take advantage of the Olympics to makes their case. What will the Chinese Masters do in response?
Allow it and they run the risk of a popular movement. Crush it, and there will be a PR disaster that dwarfs Tianemenn Square.
In any case, I am making two separate points in this thread:
1) Predictions about Chinese economic dominance are flawed.
2) The people making these predictions have allowed their own anti-American bias to blind themselves to reality
If the factors I have outlined do, actually, spell the doom of America (and I hasten to add that I am certain they do not), then surely they must be considered as significant barriers to the economic development of a tyrannical, centralized state: China.
The meltdown of the Chinese economy is just around the corner, and when it happens, the same pathetic conditions that led to an earlier successful revolution will repeat themselves.