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China Ascending

 
 
Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 02:34 am
It is all the rage among intellectuals of the left and the right to suggest that China is The coming power.

Anyone read David Wingate's novels?

China may, indeed, be the next best thing.

Recently I had a discussion with the CEO of a very successful company who just returned from China. Let's just say he was very bullish on China.

China is a capitalist's wetdream and so it is not surprising that captains of our industry (service or otherwise) will have no problem seeing the trees for the forest.

Critics of America promise it's imminent demise on the basis of:

1) Huge discrepancies between the haves and the have nots
2) Unfettered industrial pollution
3) Reductions in the personal liberties of its citizens
4) Governmental policies that favor corporations over the individual
5) Institutional corruption

Somehow, however, the expectations are that China (which by all measures falls far short of the US in these 5 areas) will have no problem overcoming these barriers to sustainable success.

For the Right this perspective is based on avarice. China is THE MARKET and should never be restricted. For the Left, the perspective is one of self-loathing and a conviction that any country on earth is bound to surmount the successes of America simply because it is not America.

My friend the CEO chooses to believe that China cannot but help to embrace foreign investment. Unfortunately, for his company, he is not a student of history.

Remember the 90'sa when conventional wisdom had it that America was in decline and Japan was in ascension? Where did that go?

China cannot sustain economic freedom joined to political restraint.

It may very well get it's political act together and then look out America. America of 2007 cannot, ultimately, compete with America of 1890. America cannot compete with a young, vibrant, market driven, AND FREE China. Whether we have to face such a China is, currently, highly suspect.
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Noddy24
 
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Reply Wed 12 Sep, 2007 07:54 am
Bump.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Sep, 2007 04:40 pm
"Featured" --- Wow, and the only reply is "Bump."

Actually the author of the new Chinese empire books is David Wingrove. David Wingate was an NBA player.
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tomcarter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jan, 2008 02:27 am
Re: China Ascending
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

1) Huge discrepancies between the haves and the have nots
2) Unfettered industrial pollution
3) Reductions in the personal liberties of its citizens
4) Governmental policies that favor corporations over the individual
5) Institutional corruption


China will have to face a number of challenges - the greatest being its own customs - before it can successfully overcome these obstacles, each of which is dramaticaly hindering China's own chances of global dominance. Of course, there must also be a sincere willingness to put to rest these problems, but that desire does not seem to exist within China's present leadership. I'd give it another lifetime before China's political and corporate infrastructure resembles anything close to the "American Way." Until then, tourism not F.D.I. will become the P.R.C.'s primary cultural bridge with the west.

Any questions, feel free to contact me...

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Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jan, 2008 02:18 pm
Aaron L. Friedberg poses two stark questions: "What if the [People's Republic of China] continues to grow wealthier and stronger without making the transition to liberal democracy? Could a rich, authoritarian China use its newfound power and influence to reshape the world in its own image?"

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/China-11038
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vid
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jan, 2008 02:32 pm
Re: China Ascending
Finn dAbuzz wrote:




Remember the 90'sa when conventional wisdom had it that America was in decline and Japan was in ascension? Where did that go?


How many car workers were there in the US during the 90's?

How many are there today?

What percentage of cars in the US were Japanese during the 90's?

What is that percentage today?

How is Ford doing? And why?
How is GM doing? And why?

How many Japanese/partly Japanese consumer durables do you have in your home at this moment in time? Most of them? 50% of them?

Now, if the Japanese can so effectively infiltrate, change, and in some sectors, dominate the US consumer market with their relatively small population, imagine what a collosal country like China will be able to achieve, once it gets its act together and really starts to roll things out.
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jan, 2008 06:21 pm
Re: China Ascending
vid wrote:
Finn dAbuzz wrote:




Remember the 90'sa when conventional wisdom had it that America was in decline and Japan was in ascension? Where did that go?


How many car workers were there in the US during the 90's?

How many are there today?

What percentage of cars in the US were Japanese during the 90's?

What is that percentage today?

How is Ford doing? And why?
How is GM doing? And why?

How many Japanese/partly Japanese consumer durables do you have in your home at this moment in time? Most of them? 50% of them?

Now, if the Japanese can so effectively infiltrate, change, and in some sectors, dominate the US consumer market with their relatively small population, imagine what a collosal country like China will be able to achieve, once it gets its act together and really starts to roll things out.


Clearly, the health of the US economy doesn't hinge on its auto industry.

The predictions of the 90's were not that a relatively small nation would eventually dominate some sectors of the US consumer economy. They were that Japan would leap over the US and dominate the global economy.

These predictions were flawed because they didn't appreciate that the societal and political forces that initially fueled the Japanese economy would eventually stall it.

This same flaw is within current predictions about China.

There is no rational reason to believe that China will "get its act together" any time soon.

The numerous recent scandals concerning the quality and safety of its exports is only beginning to have their ill effect. It will get worse, even if there are no new scandals, and we can safely bet there will be.

The massive monument to autocratic central planning, the Three Gorge Dam is almost finished and Chinese environmental activists ( a rare breed that cannot afford to be hyperbolic) are predicting it will be the source of enormous environmental disasters. It is only one of very many environmental tinderboxes created by a tyrannical regime that is hell bent on seeking power and completely intolerant of criticism.

Can you say "Chernobyl?"

Contrary to what the Chinese Masters believe, the Beijing Olympics promises to be a disaster for them. Even the all powerful Party cannot, within a few years, reverse decades of environmental negligence. Watch as numerous foreign atheletes complain about air quality.

Watch as the Chinese Masters' desire to control the flow of information into and out of their nation is overwhelmed by the Olympic media blizzard.

Every medium covering the event is going to want to cover side stories.

Ironically, if China gives them free reign, most of these stories will be positive because of the liberal bias of the media and because the feel good nature of Olympic coverage. However the Chinese Masters will not take such a risk, and their restrictions will result in exactly the opposite. Nothing infuriates the Media more than attempts to silence it.

We can also rely on activists for freedom in China attempting to take advantage of the Olympics to makes their case. What will the Chinese Masters do in response?

Allow it and they run the risk of a popular movement. Crush it, and there will be a PR disaster that dwarfs Tianemenn Square.

In any case, I am making two separate points in this thread:

1) Predictions about Chinese economic dominance are flawed.

2) The people making these predictions have allowed their own anti-American bias to blind themselves to reality

If the factors I have outlined do, actually, spell the doom of America (and I hasten to add that I am certain they do not), then surely they must be considered as significant barriers to the economic development of a tyrannical, centralized state: China.

The meltdown of the Chinese economy is just around the corner, and when it happens, the same pathetic conditions that led to an earlier successful revolution will repeat themselves.
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