Quick question about probability

Okay, it's been five minutes. I'm going to risk it and go back out to the bar.

Thanks for all your wonderful advice. It was all so interesting and informative. NOT!

Well, 4 beer won't get you to perform properly, kicky, and going
out for an additonal beer or two will diminish your performance
even more.

Not a good starting point if you're looking for some amorous
encounter. Should have had champagne instead, dear!

Hmm, well..

P(XXX | Shy, 4Beer ,AvgLooks) = P(Shy,4Beer,AvgLooks | XXX) * P(XXX) / P(Shy,4Beer,AvgLooks)

Assuming independence,

= P(Shy | XXX) * P(4Beer | XXX) * P(AvgLooks | XXX) * P(XXX) / (P(Shy) * P(4Beer) * P(AvgLooks) )

By definition,

P(AvgLooks) = 0.5

According to Goolge,

P(XXX) = 0.05
P(Shy) = 0.6
P(4Beer) = 0.4
P(Shy | XXX) = 0.1
P(4Beer | XXX) = 0.1
P(AvgLooks | XXX) = 0.5

Plugging in,

= 0.00833, so you have roughly a 1 in 120 chance of getting laid tonight.

Did the kickyman get lucky


Did he get some stank on his hanglow?


Is he dealing with a problem of getting her out so he can get on with Saturday?

Will he lock her in the trunk of his car and dump her in the Meadowlands?


These and other questions will be answered after he wakes up at 11.

Im gonna say No, since he usually regales his unsuspecting targets with discussions of how he likes to take trophies of his encounters.

well if he did I hope it was with someone just as lovely and articulate as mr kick...hopefully she went out for the same reason and disclosed any diseases

That's probably pretty accurate. Although, Farmerman is way better with numbers and statistics than I am. Maybe he can shed some more light on the actual numbers.

At any rate, it might as well have been a bajillion to one, because I didn't get none. The closest I came was at Cabin Fever on York Avenue. I started talking to three cute little drunken sweetiepies (well, one of them was a cute little sweetiepie and the other two were just kind of bitchy drunken dumbasses) at the bar while they were looking for songs to sing (it was karaoke night).

I was able to get through the small talk portion of the exchange by pointing out songs that I thought they should do for Karaoke, but when I started offering drinks to the drunk cutie, her ****blocker friends went into attack mode. There was a fifteen-twenty minute verbal tug-of-war over who was going to leave with the drunken cutiepie, me or the two ****blockers. The ****blockers won, the three of them chose to sing "Grease", and I left, disgusted at both my lack of a broad to lay with and having to hear their drunken rendition of that ridiculous f*cking song.