taiwan---China's pain

So how does your country feel about Taiwan? Your teacher said there must be a war. Is that because your teacher believes Taiwan must be made part of China and China will fight for Taiwan?

Sorry to hear that this is what is being taught in China.

There was a long thread a while back discussing Chinas claim to Taiwan and their right to use force.

The people of Taiwan would not allow the government to hand over Taiwan to China.

The people of China would not allow their government to give up their right to claim Taiwan.

In both cases it would be the end of that government. All the teachers are saying, is what already is a popular belief. Ironicly, it is the USA that poses one of the bigest uncertainties to China and the whole equation.

By the way, an attempt to take back Taiwan if it fails could quite likely see the collapse of the Chinese government and see a crash of their economy into a depression. Even so, it is still a strong possibility.

For a detailed read from Jane's Defence Weekly , The year to fear for Taiwan: 2006

Not much possibility so long as the U.S. Navy is in the region, and a Republican calls the Executive Mansion home.

No one in their right mind will go head to head with the USN.

But asherman, you forget everything else we lose.

Who produces the clothes we wear? Who can disrupt the worlds oil supply? Who's going to buy the hugh debt the Republicans are running up?

http://www.newsmax.com/articles/?a=2000/7/12/70602

http://www.iht.com/articles/2001/01/05/china.2.t_1.php

http://www.comw.org/cmp/

I wouldn't put to much empasis on the navy. You can't win a war with air power alone. You have to have troops on the ground occuping ground. If we can't handle a little country like Iraq, we dead in the water with China.

And China has NUKES.

The United States is not seeking a war with China, but has guaranteed the security of Taiwan. Any attack on the islands of Taiwan, will be regarded as an attack on the United States. This policy goes way, way back to 1948. Over the years, the threat of invasion has been blunted several times by the presence of the USN.

If in the future China were to attempt invading the islands, the USN would fight the invading force. That is, they would fight invasion forces so long as the United States did not change a fundamental policy that is nearly 60 years old. I don't imagine any Republican administration would make such a change. There are segments of the Democratic Party who would do anything to appease foreign aggressors. Would Hillary fight to preserve Taiwanese freedom and honor an "ancient" commitment? I don't think so, and that in itself would be an open invitation to war.

Traditionally China has regarded Taiwan as a Chinese Province, in the same manner they have regarded Tibet. Neither native Tibetans nor Taiwanese have traditionally regarded themselves as part of China. Of course, the native Taiwanese WERE invaded and pretty much marginalized by the KMT invasion back in 1948. However, today Taiwan has made strides in reconciling the native population with the Han, and the KMT isn't the same totalitarian regime it was 60 years ago. If Taiwan were to freely vote to "rejoin" China, that's their own business and no one would stop them. That isn't likely to happen, especially since the "repatriation" of Hong Kong hasn't exactly gone the way liberals thought it would. The CCP isn't known for honoring its promises. If you were Taiwanese, would you vote to submit the country to CCP rule?

The Navy is sort of like a police officer who has been warned that a gang of robbers is interested in robbing a particular bank. So long as the police are standing out front, in force and armed, the robbery will hopefully be prevented. If China did try to invade, they would incur very large losses given the current balance of forces. China has a truly huge army with an almost unlimited supply of straight-leg infantry. It is a bad thing to mix it up with the PLA mano y mano. On the other hand China would have difficulty maintaining air superiority. The Chinese Navy is better today than its been since the 15th century, but it is still no match for the USN. There are a number of old Soviet conventional submarines, whose main strength is their silence. China can not match in numbers, nor capability US warships of any class. Joint exercises and planning have gone on for a very long time. To invade Taiwan a large fleet of troopships would be required, and they would be sitting ducks for Taiwanese pilots, artillery, and naval vessels acting in concert with the USN. Not even China, with its large population is likely to accept the cost of trying to cross the straights against combined Taiwanese and USN resistance.

So China as a nuclear arsenal. They can't easily use it except to blackmail and threaten. In the immortal words of the Chairman, "nuclear bombs are paper tigers". First use of nuclear weapons in the modern world would be a political/military mistake of monstrous proportions. China is not likely to gamble all of its progress on a careless roll of the dice to seize political power over Taiwan. The "Taiwan Question" is far from the most risky situation that the world will have to face over the next ten years ... so long as the left-wing is kept out of the White House except as tourists or closely watched guests.

As a chinese, I hope that we could take back Taiwan without war.

Why? Hasn't China already enough problems? If Taiwan were to become a Chinese province, how would that benefit China? In what way would the Taiwanese benefit from giving up their independence?

The fact of the matter is that Taiwan is probably far better off retaining its sovereignty.

Unfortunately China believes Taiwan is as much of China as Hong Kong. It will be a matter of time before they actively try to take it.

Another potential problem is the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

Another potential problem for the future is Japan. She is beginning to feel a little nationalistic again.


SOURCE

Looks like the Middle East is not going to be the only place we can look for conflict.

A fact is, complete independence of Taiwan for China will be a humiliation as great as an imagined independence of ALaskas for the U.S.

Even I don't care about Taiwan's possible split-up (I will never join it if that shameful war really breaks out), in no way will most Chinese agree with me. And it's not because of "intoxication" or "indocrination", but very normal belief in unity and sovereignty.

And even I have to admit, morally or legally speaking a secession is wrong. The fact that one party seized an island should never justify its claim of sovereign independence on it. Chiang-Kai Shek never claimed it that way (He claimed to retake mainland), it was only until recent years did nearly one half of Taiwanese began to call for independence. And even their voice is much lowered and softened recently. But independence is never compatible with peace in this case. CCP and Chinese people (Yes, these two entities are just as one body in this case)make it very clear not to accept it.

I think CCP is doing well, say, for the general good this time ---- It and Kuomintong are striving to speed up trans-trait relations and communications. Their aim is clear: To bind Mainland and the Island together, economically and culturally, as a whole. Politics? It can be talked about later. Military? That's an option no sane people will choose. And right now on both sides of the strait sanity prevails.