IRAQ: Divisions Among Neighbours Add to Stability Concerns

The undemocratic countries in the Mid-East are getting nervous, with justification. Will they respond by lightening up or repression?
-----BumbleBeeBoogie

IRAQ: Divisions Among Neighbours Add to Stability Concerns
N. Janardhan - IPS 4/19/03

DUBAI, Apr 19 (IPS) - A meeting of eight Middle East countries ended in Riyadh on Saturday with a call for self-rule and stability in Iraq. But it also underlined the deep divisions concerning individual interests over collective good that is likely to complicate the formation of a post-Saddam government.

The foreign ministers of countries bordering Iraq - Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Kuwait - as well as those of the regional heavyweight Egypt and the current Arab League chair Bahrain strongly rejected the U.S. threat against Damascus.

They also urged the "occupation forces" to leave Iraq as soon as possible, establish a system of self-rule and permit the United Nations to have a central role in the reconstruction programme.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said in a statement that the United Nations must have a central role in the reconstruction of Iraq, and stressed: "We call on the occupying power, which we hope will withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible, to quickly put in place an interim government with a view to setting up a constitutional government."

In an effort towards restoring law and order in Iraq, the statement also said that the "occupation forces" were bound by the Geneva Conventions to ensure "security, stability, the safeguarding of Iraq's popular and historic heritage and the restitution of stolen archaeological items."

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said the participants wanted a swift withdrawal of U.S.-led forces. "We cannot accept a military government. There is an occupying power with responsibilities.But for there to be a military government, this is something I don't think anyone will accept."

Though not on the agenda, the meeting was also an opportunity to discuss how best to curtail religious extremism in the wake of the new U.S. presence in the region.

The call for "self-rule" was a reflection of popular sentiments that was on display across Iraq on Friday. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis flocked to mosques for the first full Friday prayers since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and heard a clear call against installation of a U.S.-style democracy.

An influential Iraqi cleric, Sheikh Mohammed Fartusi, said the Shiites would not accept a brand of democracy "that allows Iraqis to say what they want but gives them no say in their destiny. This form of government would be worse than that of Saddam Hussein."

In addition, he laid out a four-point code of conduct - ban on music and on imitation of the Western "infidels", the duty for women to be veiled and the dominance of Islamic over tribal law.

Such is the depth of anti-U.S. sentiments in the region that the Saudi-owned 'Asharq al-Awsat' reported on Thursday about the Saudi government dismissing a number of state-appointed Imams and Muezzins (preachers and prayer-callers) to clamp down on anti-Western perceptions among the Saudis.

Referring to the latest crisis, the ministerial joint statement said: "We completely reject the recent threat against Syria, which can only increase the likelihood of a new cycle of war and hatred.We call on the United States to enter into dialogue with Syria and to activate the Middle East peace process."

The ministers also endorsed a Syrian proposal - primarily aimed at Israel's suspected nuclear arsenal - to turn the Middle East into a region free of weapons of mass destruction.

Barring Syria and Iran, all participants are key U.S. allies and offered direct or indirect support for the war on Iraq. But one of the grounds for a united voice is their fear that the United States will install a post-Saddam regime that would ally itself with Israel.

Independent political analyst Enad Khairallah said: "It is likely that the United States will insist that the next Iraqi administration should establish diplomatic ties with Israel."

Listing the probable leadership candidates to head the post-Saddam regime in Baghdad and their "proximity" to Tel Aviv, he said: "During exile, the Iraqi National Congress leader, Ahmed Chalabi, has had contacts with Israel through Jewish groups abroad; leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party Masoud Barzani is alleged to have a Jewish lineage; and if it were to be a U.S. military administration, then General Jay Garner is a 'good' friend of Israel."

Any diplomatic realignment involving Israel and the Arab world at this juncture - without a solution to the Palestinian issue - is a potential minefield for the regimes in the region, Khairallah added.

Amid the show of unity, however, there were major inherent differences too. The divergence pertained to the status of the Kurds in the north and Turkish demands on oil from the city of Kirkuk. Some of the leaders projected to be part of a future Iraqi set-up also arouse suspicions.

In fact, all the eight countries that joined the meeting in the Saudi capital have individual concerns about the way things will shape up in Iraq.

The neighbours fear a reaction among their own minorities and are concerned about the possibility of Iraq fragmenting into Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni enclaves.

Turkey, with its own Kurdish minority, is apprehensive that the growth of Kurdish power in northern Iraq will kindle aspirations for a united movement seeking separation and independence that could also draw in minorities from Iran and Syria.

Iran, a Shiite country, has always watched the developments in Shiite-majority, but Sunni-ruled Iraq. Tehran is now keen to have an influential role in Iraq's Najaf and Karbala - the holiest Shiite sites. Bilateral rivalry had forced Iran's Qom to be designated as an alternative religious power centre.

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with marginalised Shiite populations, are anxious about Iran gaining influence from a likely increase in the political power of Iraq's Shiite majority.

Such is the pressure now on Saudi Arabia that a Shiite representative is likely to be appointed as a minister next month for the first time since the establishment of the country in 1932.

Any prolonged presence of U.S. forces in the region is resented by Iran and Syria, but Kuwait feels secure and stable by continuing to be allied with Washington, especially after it was liberated by a U.S.-led coalition in the wake of Iraqi invasion and occupation in 1990-1991.

Economically, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait - both major oil producers - are concerned about the effects of increased Iraqi oil production that is bound to reflect on their main source of revenue.

"Clearly", Khairallah said, "the future of Iraq does not concern the Iraqis alone, but is important to the entire region."