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Sat 19 Apr, 2003 09:50 am
The undemocratic countries in the Mid-East are getting nervous, with justification. Will they respond by lightening up or repression?
-----BumbleBeeBoogie
IRAQ: Divisions Among Neighbours Add to Stability Concerns
N. Janardhan - IPS 4/19/03
DUBAI, Apr 19 (IPS) - A meeting of eight Middle East countries ended in Riyadh on Saturday with a call for self-rule and stability in Iraq. But it also underlined the deep divisions concerning individual interests over collective good that is likely to complicate the formation of a post-Saddam government.
The foreign ministers of countries bordering Iraq - Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Kuwait - as well as those of the regional heavyweight Egypt and the current Arab League chair Bahrain strongly rejected the U.S. threat against Damascus.
They also urged the "occupation forces" to leave Iraq as soon as possible, establish a system of self-rule and permit the United Nations to have a central role in the reconstruction programme.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said in a statement that the United Nations must have a central role in the reconstruction of Iraq, and stressed: "We call on the occupying power, which we hope will withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible, to quickly put in place an interim government with a view to setting up a constitutional government."
In an effort towards restoring law and order in Iraq, the statement also said that the "occupation forces" were bound by the Geneva Conventions to ensure "security, stability, the safeguarding of Iraq's popular and historic heritage and the restitution of stolen archaeological items."
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said the participants wanted a swift withdrawal of U.S.-led forces. "We cannot accept a military government. There is an occupying power with responsibilities.But for there to be a military government, this is something I don't think anyone will accept."
Though not on the agenda, the meeting was also an opportunity to discuss how best to curtail religious extremism in the wake of the new U.S. presence in the region.
The call for "self-rule" was a reflection of popular sentiments that was on display across Iraq on Friday. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis flocked to mosques for the first full Friday prayers since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and heard a clear call against installation of a U.S.-style democracy.
An influential Iraqi cleric, Sheikh Mohammed Fartusi, said the Shiites would not accept a brand of democracy "that allows Iraqis to say what they want but gives them no say in their destiny. This form of government would be worse than that of Saddam Hussein."
In addition, he laid out a four-point code of conduct - ban on music and on imitation of the Western "infidels", the duty for women to be veiled and the dominance of Islamic over tribal law.
Such is the depth of anti-U.S. sentiments in the region that the Saudi-owned 'Asharq al-Awsat' reported on Thursday about the Saudi government dismissing a number of state-appointed Imams and Muezzins (preachers and prayer-callers) to clamp down on anti-Western perceptions among the Saudis.
Referring to the latest crisis, the ministerial joint statement said: "We completely reject the recent threat against Syria, which can only increase the likelihood of a new cycle of war and hatred.We call on the United States to enter into dialogue with Syria and to activate the Middle East peace process."
The ministers also endorsed a Syrian proposal - primarily aimed at Israel's suspected nuclear arsenal - to turn the Middle East into a region free of weapons of mass destruction.
Barring Syria and Iran, all participants are key U.S. allies and offered direct or indirect support for the war on Iraq. But one of the grounds for a united voice is their fear that the United States will install a post-Saddam regime that would ally itself with Israel.
Independent political analyst Enad Khairallah said: "It is likely that the United States will insist that the next Iraqi administration should establish diplomatic ties with Israel."
Listing the probable leadership candidates to head the post-Saddam regime in Baghdad and their "proximity" to Tel Aviv, he said: "During exile, the Iraqi National Congress leader, Ahmed Chalabi, has had contacts with Israel through Jewish groups abroad; leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party Masoud Barzani is alleged to have a Jewish lineage; and if it were to be a U.S. military administration, then General Jay Garner is a 'good' friend of Israel."
Any diplomatic realignment involving Israel and the Arab world at this juncture - without a solution to the Palestinian issue - is a potential minefield for the regimes in the region, Khairallah added.
Amid the show of unity, however, there were major inherent differences too. The divergence pertained to the status of the Kurds in the north and Turkish demands on oil from the city of Kirkuk. Some of the leaders projected to be part of a future Iraqi set-up also arouse suspicions.
In fact, all the eight countries that joined the meeting in the Saudi capital have individual concerns about the way things will shape up in Iraq.
The neighbours fear a reaction among their own minorities and are concerned about the possibility of Iraq fragmenting into Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni enclaves.
Turkey, with its own Kurdish minority, is apprehensive that the growth of Kurdish power in northern Iraq will kindle aspirations for a united movement seeking separation and independence that could also draw in minorities from Iran and Syria.
Iran, a Shiite country, has always watched the developments in Shiite-majority, but Sunni-ruled Iraq. Tehran is now keen to have an influential role in Iraq's Najaf and Karbala - the holiest Shiite sites. Bilateral rivalry had forced Iran's Qom to be designated as an alternative religious power centre.
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with marginalised Shiite populations, are anxious about Iran gaining influence from a likely increase in the political power of Iraq's Shiite majority.
Such is the pressure now on Saudi Arabia that a Shiite representative is likely to be appointed as a minister next month for the first time since the establishment of the country in 1932.
Any prolonged presence of U.S. forces in the region is resented by Iran and Syria, but Kuwait feels secure and stable by continuing to be allied with Washington, especially after it was liberated by a U.S.-led coalition in the wake of Iraqi invasion and occupation in 1990-1991.
Economically, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait - both major oil producers - are concerned about the effects of increased Iraqi oil production that is bound to reflect on their main source of revenue.
"Clearly", Khairallah said, "the future of Iraq does not concern the Iraqis alone, but is important to the entire region."
Well, the main concern of the Arab regimes is prevention of peace treaty between Israel and Iraq. These concerns are nothing to do with interests of Iraqi people. Neither does it have anything pro-Palestinian: the dictators just fear for the destiny of their regimes.
Quote:Independent political analyst Enad Khairallah said: "It is likely that the United States will insist that the next Iraqi administration should establish diplomatic ties with Israel."
Listing the probable leadership candidates to head the post-Saddam regime in Baghdad and their "proximity" to Tel Aviv, he said: "During exile, the Iraqi National Congress leader, Ahmed Chalabi, has had contacts with Israel through Jewish groups abroad; leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party Masoud Barzani is alleged to have a Jewish lineage; and if it were to be a U.S. military administration, then General Jay Garner is a 'good' friend of Israel."
Any diplomatic realignment involving Israel and the Arab world at this juncture - without a solution to the Palestinian issue - is a potential minefield for the regimes in the region, Khairallah added.
The regimes mentioned (except Turkey, its interests refer to Kurdish problem) need a Mideastern conflict to distract attention of their own oppressive character and corruption. If all the neighbors of Israel sign peace treaty, they will lose such an excuse.
Iran Is Said to Send Agents Into Southern Iraq
Iran Is Said to Send Agents Into Southern Iraq
By DOUGLAS JEHL - New York Times
WASHINGTON, April 22 ?- Iranian-trained agents have crossed into southern Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein and are working in the cities of Najaf, Karbala and Basra to promote friendly Shiite clerics and advance Iranian interests, according to defense and other United States government officials.
The officials cited intelligence reports that said the agents include members of the military wing of an Iraqi exile group that operates from Iran with that government's training and support. Known as the Badr Brigade, the militia is the armed force of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shiite group with headquarters in Tehran.
Other agents who have crossed into Iraq may include irregular members of a special unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the officials said.
They said the infiltration from Iran was not unexpected, but they described it as a matter of significant concern at a time when outside powers are jockeying for influence to fill the political vacuum in Iraq. They said it suggests that Iran, which stayed on the sidelines during the American-led war in Iraq, may be trying to take a more assertive role in shaping developments in southern Iraq, whose population ?- like that of Iran ?- is composed overwhelmingly of Shiite Muslims.
"They are not looking to promote a democratic agenda," one military official said.
Southern Iraq has been a center of much rivalry and rancor in recent weeks, to an extent that has surprised officials in the Bush administration. The toppling of Iraq's Sunni-dominated government opened the lid to fierce disputes among various Shiite leaders about the proper place of religion and politics in the Iraq of the future.
Against that backdrop, administration officials said they were worried about meddling that might seek to promote an Iranian model of government, an Islamic republic headed by a Shiite cleric who functions as both the supreme religious as well as political leader.
One sign of that concern came on Monday, when Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said at a Pentagon briefing that an Iranian model of government would not be consistent with the democratic and pluralistic principles the United States believes should be adopted by an emerging Iraqi government.
"I think there are an awful lot of people in Iran who feel that that small group of clerics that determine what takes place in that country is not their idea of how they want to live their lives," Mr. Rumsfeld said.
The major Shiite pilgrimage under way in the holy city of Karbala has helped to provide cover for the activities of Iranian agents, the government officials say. In the case of the Badr Brigade, some of whose members operate from bases in Iran, "what we've seen is that they shed their uniforms, put on civilian clothes, and disappear," a defense official said.
American soldiers, including members of the Special Forces, have been trying to keep watch on the Iranian border, the administration officials said, but the frontier is too long and porous to secure with any certainty.
The officials who described the intelligence reports said they did not characterize exactly what the Iranian agents might be doing or who they seemed to be supporting in southern Iraq. But the officials called attention to the close links between the Iranian government and the Iranian-based Iraqi opposition group, whose leader, Ayatollah Muhammad Bakir al-Hakim, has yet to return to Iraq.
In an interview with Iranian television last week after returning to Iraq, the group's deputy leader, Abdelaziz al-Hakim, said, "We will first opt for a national political system, but eventually the Iraqi people will seek an Islamic republic system." Mr. Hakim said in that interview that the will of Shiites for an Islamic system would prevail in democratic elections, since they are 60 percent of the population.
Until last week, some gunmen from the group's Badr Brigade maintained a visible presence in the town of Baquba, near the Iranian border, and in the larger city of Kut, according to American intelligence officials. American forces have since taken control of those cities, and the armed Badr forces have largely melted away.
The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq is among several Iraqi opposition groups recognized by the Bush administration for inclusion in discussions about Iraq's future, even though some in the administration regard the group with deep suspicion because of its close ties with the Iranian government. The group's Badr Brigade, a force of about 10,000 men, received training and support from the Iranian government, American officials say.
Nevertheless, the group has declined two American invitations to participate in sessions intended to lead to the formation of an interim government. Hamid al-Bayati, the group's representative in London, said in a telephone interview today that the organization would not send an emissary to the next meeting, to be held in Baghdad on Saturday, because it mistrusted the American sponsorship role.
"If they are talking about democracy, they should leave the Iraqi people to organize themselves," Mr. Bayati said.
Ayatollah Hakim, from his base in Iran, called on Shiites last week to converge on the holy city of Karbala as part of the pilgrimage "to oppose a U.S.-led interim administration and defend Iraq's independence."
The leading Shiite cleric in southern Iraq is the Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sestani, who is 73, and whose base is in Najaf. Like many Iraqi clerics, he has a long record of opposition to what has become the Iranian model of Shiite jurisprudence, which grants clerics a pre-eminent political as well as religious role.
So far, Ayatollah Sestani's main rival has been Moktada al-Sadr, the son of Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, who was assassinated in 1999 on orders from Iraqi leaders. Some accounts of the killing earlier this month of an American-backed Shiite cleric, Sheik Abdel Majid al-Khoei, have implicated followers of Mr. Sadr, whose forces later surrounded the houses of Ayatollah Sestani and Ayatollah Said al-Hakim, nephew of the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq.
Possibility of Iranian involvement makes it essential to establish direct American governing of Iraq until the radical Islamic elements are neuthralized, and the conditions for establishing the secular and predictable semi-democratic regime are created.
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