Why Brexit Didn’t Work

A decade after MPs voted to hold the referendum that led to Britain leaving the European Union, a poll has found majorities in the bloc’s four largest member states would support the UK rejoining – but not on the same terms it had before.

The YouGov survey of six western European countries, including the UK, also confirms that a clear majority of British voters now back the country rejoining the bloc – but only if it can keep the opt-outs it previously enjoyed.

The result, the pollster said, was a “public opinion impasse”, even if there seems precious little likelihood, for the time being, of the UK’s Labour government, which this year negotiated a “reset” with the bloc, attempting a return to the EU.

YouGov’s EuroTrack survey showed that at least half of people asked across the four largest EU nations – France, Germany, Italy and Spain – supported the UK being allowed to rejoin, with percentages ranging from 51% in Italy to 63% in Germany.

Asked whether Britain should be allowed back in on the same conditions it enjoyed when it left, including not having to adopt the euro currency and remaining outside the Schengen passport-free zone, the numbers changed significantly.

Only one-fifth of respondents across the four biggest EU members, from 19% in Italy and France to 21% in Spain and 22% in Germany, felt the UK should be allowed return as if it had never left, with 58-62% saying it must be part of all main EU policy areas.

The pollster stress-tested western European attitudes by asking whether, if the UK was only willing to rejoin the EU on condition it could keep its old opt-outs, it should be allowed to. Some (33-36%) felt this would be OK, but more (41-52%) were opposed.

In the UK, while 54% of Britons supported rejoining the EU when asked the question in isolation, the figure fell to just 36% if rejoining meant giving up previous opt-outs. On those terms, 45% of Britons opposed renewed membership.

The survey found that remain voters and those who backed more pro-EU parties would still broadly back rejoining if this meant adopting the euro and being part of the Schengen area, albeit at much lower rates.

Almost 60% of remain voters said they would support rejoining the EU without the previous opt-outs, down about 25 percentage points from the non-specific question, as would 58% of Labour voters (-23 points) and 49% of Liberal Democrats (-31 points).

The percentage of Eurosceptic voters willing to rejoin without the previous special treatment more or less halved, falling from 21% to 10% among leave voters; 25% to 12% among Conservative voters, and 15% to 9% among Reform UK supporters.

The fifth continental European country polled, Denmark, proved an outlier. Respondents there were very keen (72%) for the UK to rejoin, and more enthusiastic than larger member states about it keeping its previous opt-outs (43%).

Denmark, however, is one of only three EU member states to hold opt-outs in major EU policy areas. The survey also found that large majorities in all five continental countries (63-75%) would support an independent Scotland joining the EU.

I preferred putting this in the Brexit thread I’d started earlier, but Izzy murdered it.

Young people across the UK will be able to study or gain work experience through the EU’s Erasmus scheme for the first time since Brexit, after the government announced an agreement to rejoin at a cost of £570m.

The scheme officially known as Erasmus+ will be reopened to those involved in education, training, culture and sport from 2027, after discussions in London and Brussels to fulfil a Labour election manifesto pledge.

Additional countries are proposing to exit the corrupt EU.

Time has proven me correct. Additional countries are proposing to exit the corrupt EU.

Lash wrote:

I preferred putting this in the Brexit thread I’d started earlier, but Izzy murdered it.

Yeah, it really sucks when you learn that you're wrong.

You didn't know anything.

You live an ocean away.

Brexit was going to be a disaster from the off.

We can no longer live and work or even the mainland without additional paperwork.

It's not about Britain being punished, it's about the people believing far right bullshit from the likes of Farage and Johnson.

It's called reaping what you sowed.

The sooner we get back in the better.

Tom Luango should stick to American politics.

I preferred putting this in the Brexit thread I’d started earlier, but Izzy murdered it.

British voters want to be part of the European Union more than their French and Italian counterparts, a new poll reveals.

The YouGov survey, carried out in six European countries, shows 50 per cent of voters in the UK would vote to be an EU member if there was a referendum now, compared to 45 per cent and 46 per cent in France and Italy. The numbers were higher in Germany, 62 per cent, Denmark, 75 per cent, and Spain, 66 per cent

It also found that in Britain, just 31 per cent of people said they would vote to be outside the EU – far fewer than the 52 per cent who backed Brexit nearly a decade ago. In France, that figure was 30 per cent, Italy 28 per cent, Germany 20 per cent, Denmark 14 per cent and Spain 13 per cent.

Time has proven me correct.

Last month it was reported that Baroness Shafik, Sir Keir’s chief economic adviser, privately recommended rejoining the customs union in the run-up to last month’s Budget, arguing it would cut costs for businesses and increase exports.

The deputy prime minister, David Lammy, also suggested that rejoining the union could increase economic growth, although he stressed it was not government policy.

It comes after an analysis seen by The Independent revealed that Brexit is costing the UK up to £90bn a year in lost tax revenues.

Time has proven me correct. Additional countries are proposing to exit the corrupt EU.

Exclusive: Rejoining the EU could take place much more quickly for the UK than it typically would for other candidate countries, as a result of pre-existing alignment with the bloc

The European Union could fast-track Britain’s return to the bloc if it decided to rejoin, dispelling suggestions the UK would be pushed to the back of the queue if it tried to reverse Brexit.

The debate over Britain’s EU membership has been reignited after former health secretary Wes Streeting said the country should rejoin as part of his pitch to lead the Labour Party.

Sandro Gozi, the chair of the European delegation to the EU-UK Parliamentary Assembly, told The Independent that the European Union would see a request to rejoin from the UK as a “major victory for the European project”, insisting that there would be a way to fast-track it.

Brussels sources confirmed the UK’s potential re-accession could take place much more quickly than it would for other candidate countries, due to its significant pre-existing alignment with the bloc.

While it is thought that the EU would include joining the Euro as a key starting point of talks with the UK, multiple sources said this was unlikely to be a red line given the entry requirements for the Euro are so strict, and the UK currently doesn’t meet them.

Speaking about a possible reversal of Brexit, Mr Gozi said: “We wouldn’t see it as a victory for the EU over the UK – but as a victory for Europe as a whole.” He argued that increasing global turmoil has only increased desire within the EU to welcome Britain back.

Referencing a possible “fast-track” process of accession, he said: “It could be done more quickly than for other candidate countries because there is the institutional memory there from when the UK was a member. And there is also already some level of alignment between the UK and EU.”

Mr Gozi argued that a promise to rejoin the EU could be a good political tool for Labour in its battle against Reform UK, as a clear promise to return could diminish Nigel Farage’s appeal. It comes after YouGov polling conducted last month indicated that almost two-thirds (63 per cent) of the British public want closer ties with the EU, while 55 per cent want to rejoin.

But he also argued that Britain would need to accept the same terms as any other candidate country, saying the UK would need to give up its “obsession with carve-outs”. He insisted that this would include joining the Euro.

Not only did the UK previously not have to join the Euro when it was part of the EU, it also negotiated a rebate, reducing Britain’s EU budget contribution by around 66 per cent.

Mr Gozi’s comments will come as a blow to those keen for the UK to rejoin the EU, as significant compromises – especially joining the Euro – would no doubt spark intense criticism from the Tories and Reform UK.

However, one source said he thinks there would be some level of “wiggle room” in possible re-accession talks.

“The EU’s starting point will be that we should commit to joining the Euro in due course. But look at the fact that there are at least five member states who are not in the Euro and show no intention of joining. Denmark, Sweden, Poland and so on. The EU has already had to accept a two-tier position when it comes to Euro membership.”

Meanwhile, a former MEP with links to Brussels, pointed out: “You can’t just join the Euro. The entry criteria are very strict with four economic benchmarks, and the UK doesn’t currently meet them, and it’s a very long way from meeting the one on government debt.”

The first source also agreed with Mr Gozi that the process of rejoining could take place “quite quickly”, pointing to Finland, which took just three years to join because it had already been a member of the European Economic Area.

“The UK is still aligned with EU legislation and where it has diverged it is very clear where it has diverged. It’s very different than it would be dealing with somewhere like Albania,” they explained. “Both sides would need to vet existing Albanian legislation, get it translated and then go through it very carefully and see how its applied. In Britain, that’s very clear.”

However, a source close to the EU’s ambassador to the UK tempered hopes of Britain being fast-tracked, insisting that the bloc is focused on getting existing agreements with Britain over the line, including the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) deal on the trade of plants and food.

They dismissed speculation about Britain’s future in the union as “an internal issue”, adding: “We have nearly 10 countries that want to join the EU that are candidate accession countries. This is the biggest amount of countries we’ve seen. And there has so far been no request from the UK to rejoin, so there is currently no discussion.”

The European Union has always been clear that the UK would be allowed to rejoin the bloc should it want to, with EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in 2023 saying the UK was on a clear “direction of travel” toward rejoining. She said she had told her children that it was up to the next generation to “fix” the mistake of Brexit.

Speaking last week, Mr Streeting – who is expected to launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after quitting the government – described Britain’s 2016 decision to ​leave the European Union as “a catastrophic mistake”, arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin.

“We ‌need a new special relationship with the EU, because Britain’s future lies with Europe, and one day – one day – back in the European Union,” he said.