Brexit (2)

Keir Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU, single market or customs union and said reopening the Brexit debate would bring “turmoil”.

“We’re not rejoining the EU, we’re not rejoining the single market or the customs union,” the Labour leader told reporters on Saturday. “That isn’t our plan. It never has been. I’ve never said that as leader of the Labour party, and it’s not in our manifesto.”

Starmer was speaking at a campaign event in Vauxhall, south London, after Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, claimed he would reverse Brexit if he won power.

Badenoch, who is seen as a likely Tory leadership contender, said Brexit was a 10- to 20-year project that a Labour government would put into reverse. She told the Telegraph: “They will take us back to square one. They’re just going to copy what the EU does.”

In response, Starmer said he had no intention of reopening the Brexit question because the 2016 referendum threw “politics into turmoil for three years” and “returning to that kind of uncertainty” would not help the country.

“I voted to remain. I campaigned to remain,” the Labour leader said. “But what that referendum did was to throw politics into turmoil for three years. Between 2016 and 2019, our parliament couldn’t get anything done. It caused huge uncertainty. And I don’t think returning to that kind of uncertainty is actually going to help us rebuild our economy, rebuild our country, grow the wealth and create the wealth that we need for the secure jobs of the future."

Starmer said while a Labour government would not rejoin the EU, it would seek a better deal with Brussels on trade, research and development, defence and security, and education.

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Starmer said while a Labour government would not rejoin the EU, it would seek a better deal with Brussels on trade, research and development, defence and security, and education.

London (DNA) (ots)

A decline in effective national governance and the "long-term scars" caused by austerity measures and Brexit have stifled economic growth and undermined social cohesion in the United Kingdom, according to a study.

Researchers concluded that an incoming government must make up for "lost" decade and a half since the global financial crisis in 2008, with urgent structural changes required to prevent "severe problems" impacting citizens' quality of life.

With the General Election in the UK approaching on July 4, polls suggest Labour is on course for a return to power for the first time since 2010.

But researchers at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Hertie School, a university in Berlin, Germany, have warned the next government will face "several interlocking crises" caused by past failings, with a decline in the quality of governance identified as the key cause.

The report highlights that the UK’s governance has repeatedly been among the highest performing countries globally. But it identified "signs of stagnation and erosion", with a particular focus on a lack of state capacity to address pressing social and economic challenges.

The research evaluated the last 14 years of Conservative rule using the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI). This assessment views quality of life in a population as resulting from the interaction between the strength of democratic accountability and the capacity of government to function effectively.

Researchers said the UK began the new millennium with high levels of government performance, but identified factors which were said to have subsequently weakened democracy and state capacity. These included a lack of investment in infrastructure and growing regional inequalities which "resulted in a palpable political backlash", particularly since the mid-2010s.

Political scandals, such as lockdown rule-breaking in Downing Street during the pandemic and breaches of parliamentary standards by MPs, "amplified public discontent", leading to near-record low levels of trust in many UK public institutions, the report said.

It added: "The immediate result of frequent scandals and low economic performance will likely be the repudiation of the Conservative Party on a historic scale at the polls on July 4th."

"However, the (likely) incoming Labour government will have a daunting task ahead as it seeks to restore public trust and rebuild an economic model for long-term growth."

Labour has prioritised economic growth with a range of pledges. These include a promise to abide by strict rules on taxation and public spending to provide stability, reforms to the planning system to boost housing and infrastructure, and investment in clean energy jobs.

However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a leading think tank, has accused both Labour and the Conservatives of engaging in a "conspiracy of silence" and ignoring "difficult choices" on spending at a time of high taxes and struggling public services.

Despite the challenges, the Berggruen Governance Index still ranks the UK's governance among the highest of the 145 countries assessed. The UK's scores for quality of life and democratic accountability have remained largely consistent between 2010 and 2021.

However, the score for state capacity, or the quality of government, has seen a more substantial decline, with a five-point drop over the period.

The report suggests this is due largely to an "interplay" of austerity and political dysfunction, with the economic stagnation after 2010 leading to a focus on polarising issues such as Brexit and migration.

These debates dominated over more complex and pressing domestic issues, leading to structural reforms being sidelined to "get Brexit done", the report said.

Consequently, the UK had less disciplined leadership and a weaker governance structure when the pandemic begun in 2020, it added.

Researchers concluded that later leadership scandals such as Liz Truss's mini-budget, which have further undermined trust in government, "could likely not have been possible without these two factors in place".

Identifying the economic causes of the UK's governance challenges, the report said the UK has not recovered from the global financial crisis in 2008.

Austerity measures introduced by the Conservatives after 2010 substantially increased regional inequality while lower investment "sapped the UK of long-term sources of growth", the report said.

The backlash against this approach contributed to the outcome of the 2016 referendum on EU membership which "still haunts the UK economy and political system to this day", it added.

Analysis by the World Bank show the UK lagging well behind the EU average for capital formation, which is one measure of investment, every year since 2020.

"This chronic lack of investment is one obvious explanation for the UK’s infrastructural woes such as crumbling transport and a lack of affordable housing near employment centres," the report said.

This has coincided with the UK also having "extremely low" productivity growth and stagnating gross domestic product, which the researchers warn could "accelerate" pressure on the UK more broadly if the next government "does not adopt a course correction and grow the economy".

The lack of significant growth since the financial crisis has also left the UK with relatively high interest payments due to the scale of fiscal deficits, the study shows.

The report said that while regional inequality partially drove the vote to leave the EU, it has also been exacerbated by the results of that decision, with EU funding to poor regions "drying up" after Brexit.

In conclusion, the research said: “Post-2010 austerity and the decision to leave the EU have left long-term scars on the UK economy and are wearing on the country’s social cohesion. "

It called for the reasons behind the erosion of state capacity to be examined, and for the UK to "finally must take regional planning seriously".

Rishi Sunak has said he is “proud” of his disastrous election campaign - and claimed he would win Thursday’s general election.

The prime minister has come under fire in recent weeks for a series of calamities that included a rain-soaked announcement of polling day, leaving D-Day commemorations early and a gambling scandal.

But in a crunch interview with just days to go before the vote, Mr Sunak told the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg show "this campaign is something I am very proud of" as he sought to highlight Labour’s plans.

He also said he believes he will win the election. Asked whether he thought he would still be prime Minister on Friday, he said: “Yes. I’m fighting very hard and I think people are waking up to the real danger of what a Labour government means.”

The Leave-campaigning Tory leader also admitted that Brexit has been bad for many British businesses.

“Of course when you leave the Single Market and the Customs Union that is going to change our trading relationships.”

He added: “But we have the most deepest, bilateral free trade agreement with the European continent that any nation has anywhere around the world.”

The EU will not rush to reopen Brexit negotiations with the UK even if Labour is swept to power next Thursday, senior sources in Brussels have indicated.

They say they will welcome a change of government but the deep scars left by the Conservatives during Brexit negotiations along with the new priorities caused by the war in Ukraine, and the rise of the far right weigh heavily on the minds of influential figures in Brussels.

Labour leader also says he cannot foresee circumstances where UK would re-enter single market or customs union

Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister.

The Labour leader told reporters on Wednesday he did not think Britain would go back into any of the three blocs while he was alive, all but ruling out rejoining even if he wins a second term in office.

Keir Starmer appears to be prioritising his plans to reshape Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU with a new security pact.

Speculation that talks are set to begin on the fringes of the Nato conference in Washington DC was heightened by his decision to bring his new minister for European relations, Nick Thomas-Symonds.

The new prime minister is also set to host the European Political Community (EPC) next week, a forum created by Emmanuel Macron to facilitate European relations post-Brexit.

It is expected the subject of the security pact will be broached there too, leading to speculation Labour will begin the process of integrating UK forces with those of the EU.

However, on the flight to the US, Sir Keir insisted that Nato “will remain the cornerstone” of UK defence relations but the work with the EU will be “complementary”.

European leaders are “open-minded” about how to reset relations with Britain and are not ruling rule out a UK-EU summit in the future, a senior EU official has said before a meeting of European leaders in Oxfordshire on Thursday.

But they have indicated the ball is firmly in the UK’s court and they expect an offer from London on issues such as youth mobility and citizens rights to get things rolling.

The Labour government’s intention to reshape the relationship will not be on the formal agenda of the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace but Keir Starmer is expected to discuss it at two bilaterals – one with the Irish prime minister, Simon Harris, at Chequers on Wednesday night and a second one with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, in Oxfordshire on Thursday.

“We are open-minded to see what can be achieved. We have clear demands when it comes to youth mobility, when it comes to citizens and I think would appreciate more coordination, more cooperation [with the UK],” the senior EU official said.

EU sources said while there was a “clear” appetite for coordination on foreign policy and it was happy to look at the trading relationship, which has become more challenging with Brexit requirements for customs and standards documentation.

They stressed the original Brexit deal was not open for renegotiation, something that chimes with the prime minister’s pledge before the election that the UK would not re-enter the EU single market or customs union.

The new EU relations minister, Nick Thomas-Symonds, visited Brussels on Monday for an introductory meeting with Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European Commission who leads on relations with the UK.

EU sources said meetings with Starmer on the sidelines of last week’s Nato summit went well; they were aware of the UK’s desire to “reset” the relationship and if there was a desire to go forward with a new strategic relationship they would entertain that.

Asked whether this would include a UK-EU summit, mirroring those that happen with many other non-EU countries such as Egypt, senior officials said they were “not excluding anything”.

Around 45 EU and non-EU leaders will descend on Blenheim, the birthplace of Winston Churchill, on Thursday. EU diplomats say they expect Volodymyr Zelenskiy will be among them.

The brainchild of Macron, the short, informal summit is designed to facilitate ad hoc meetings between prime ministers to forge and strengthen bonds in a way that is not possible at other meetings.

EU sources say Macron will co-chair a working group on defence and democracy along with Maia Sandu, the president of Moldova, while a second group with the same theme will be chaired by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and Montenegro’s representative.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni will for a second time chair a working group on migration along with Edi Rama, the prime minister of Albania. At the last EPC in Spain in October the two leaders, along with Rishi Sunak, Macron and the then Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, agreed a five-point plan to tackle people smuggling gangs.

One EU diplomat said Thursday’s EPC summit was an “opportunity for the Starmer to set a different tone on migration” after killing off Sunak’s Rwanda deportation plan.

A third group of leaders will discuss energy.Around 45 EU and non-EU leaders will descend on Blenheim, the birthplace of Winston Churchill, on Thursday. EU diplomats say they expect Volodymyr Zelenskiy will be among them.

The brainchild of Macron, the short, informal summit is designed to facilitate ad hoc meetings between prime ministers to forge and strengthen bonds in a way that is not possible at other meetings.

EU sources say Macron will co-chair a working group on defence and democracy along with Maia Sandu, the president of Moldova, while a second group with the same theme will be chaired by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and Montenegro’s representative.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni will for a second time chair a working group on migration along with Edi Rama, the prime minister of Albania. At the last EPC in Spain in October the two leaders, along with Rishi Sunak, Macron and the then Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, agreed a five-point plan to tackle people smuggling gangs.

One EU diplomat said Thursday’s EPC summit was an “opportunity for the Starmer to set a different tone on migration” after killing off Sunak’s Rwanda deportation plan.

A third group of leaders will discuss energy.

At least one country will be looking to move forward on other ad hoc projects including protection of monuments and cultural heritage in conflict zones and rail interconnectivity.

Many EU countries are expected to press Starmer regarding their desire for youth mobility and Erasmus university exchange programmes, something they see as an important way of helping the next generation forge cross-border bonds of understanding. “Otherwise they will grow up without knowing each other, which will be bad for Europe,” said one diplomat.

Rishi Sunak didn’t choose an early July election so that defeat might spare him the hassle of hosting tomorrow’s summit of the European Political Community (EPC), but it is a duty he was glad to forgo.

Protocols of continental fellowship never came naturally to the Conservative leader and his party would have despised him for faking them. By contrast, Keir Starmer is grateful for the gathering in Blenheim as a chance to show how Britain under a Labour government is released from Brexit neurosis.

The EPC is not part of the EU. It was conceived by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as a way to include non-EU states in a wider circle of European solidarity. It is a talking shop, not a treaty organisation. The vague purpose and imprimatur of Macron’s vanity make it an object of scepticism in some Brussels corridors. As a launchpad for Starmer’s European policy “reset”, it is perfect.

The prime minister wants to project maximum good neighbourliness without sounding impatient to unpick the knotty details of Britain’s post-Brexit trade settlement – a negotiation for which there is no appetite in European capitals or EU institutions.

Starmer’s opening bid is something more amenable and available – a new UK-EU defence and security partnership, with security defined expansively to include energy supplies, climate policy and migration. That has the merit of offering Europe something it might actually want from Britain. It would restore the framework for broad strategic alignment envisaged in the “political declaration” that came attached to Theresa May’s Brexit deal and which was shredded by Boris Johnson.

As the only European country to rank alongside France as a serious military power, Britain has hardware and expertise to offer continental democracies that feel vulnerable to Russian aggression. That anxiety is soaring in proportion to shortening odds on Donald Trump returning to the White House in November, undermining Nato and appeasing the Kremlin.

Britain offering to deploy its security capabilities under a European banner will buy a lot of goodwill in Brussels. Whether that can be parlayed into favours on the trade side of the ledger is a different question. The official answer is no. The unofficial answer is not yet.

There was enough backchannel communication when Labour was in opposition for Starmer to know that his EU interlocutors will be grateful to no longer be dealing with Tories, but also that gratitude and good vibes don’t alter the calculus of economic interest. Johnson gave away so much commercial advantage in his haste to show that Brexit was “done” that Brussels has little incentive to tinker with the existing trade deal, even to satisfy Starmer’s relatively modest ambitions for closer regulatory alignment.

There are dozens of harder and more urgent problems consuming the technical and political bandwidth of the European Commission. There is also still wariness of making concessions that could be perceived as rewards for Britain’s decision to quit the club.

But there are things that the EU wants from the UK – fisheries access, a youth mobility scheme. Some continental governments are open to persuasion that reconciliation with London has benefits that should soften the usual Brussels allergy to anything that might enable economic competition from a non-member state.

The safe forecast is that relations will be better than they have been under the Tories and harder than pro-Europeans might have hoped. Johnson’s Brexit was designed to be irreversible. It is a ratchet of automatic divergence over time.

The eggs cannot simply be unscrambled. Creating something more palatable is a project requiring constant application of political capital, diplomatic energy and leadership. It isn’t something that can be cooked on a back burner or delegated too far down the ministerial chain. Yet Starmer’s priorities are elsewhere.

That could change if the Treasury runs out of ways to stimulate the economy without substantial easing of friction at the border with the single market. Business leaders, previously cowed by Conservative dogma, are enjoying their newfound liberty to lobby for closer EU ties.

Parliament has no shortage of Labour MPs poised to ask the prime minister if he will follow the economic facts when they point towards Europe. The Commons sect that cries heresy when any shadow of rationality passes across the sacred altar of Brexit is reduced in number and exiled to opposition.

To see the election result as a rebuke to their creed would overinterpret a more general rejection of incompetence and sleaze. Europe was absent from the campaign. But there is a causal link between the ideological mania that gripped the Tories in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, the elevation of charlatans and mediocrities to positions of power, and the subsequent failure to govern well.

With Nigel Farage’s Reform party lurking in second place in dozens of Labour seats, Starmer will still be wary of anything that points towards restitution of open-border migration. But Reform voters are not all sovereignty cultists, ready to take up arms against a veterinary standards agreement if it acknowledges the jurisdiction of the European court.

Starmer can start pushing the boundaries of European diplomacy deep into terrain that was off limits for a Conservative prime minister, and still be confident of occupying the mainstream centre-ground of British public opinion.

The era of Brexit as a faith-based system of government, setting precise theological parameters for acceptable policy, is over. But that means a new era of Brexit as a different cluster of economic and diplomatic headaches is just beginning.

For years, Britain’s European policy has been governed by a simple exercise in Eurosceptic geometry. Each degree of separation was a step towards freedom and prosperity. That made it easy to make terrible decisions.

Only once the ideological blinkers are removed and a pragmatic lens is applied can the full magnitude of harm done to Britain’s strategic, economic and political relations with its neighbours come into view. Every subsequent step is now harder. Success is far from guaranteed. But there is at least a chance, with a prime minister facing the right direction, using reality as the starting point.

The UK is set to start talks on a new co-operation treaty with Germany, as the Labour government looks to "reset" relations with Europe.

Sir Keir Starmer, who is in Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said the deal was part of a bid to "turn a corner on Brexit".

Downing Street said the agreement would cover areas such as energy security, technology, defence and illegal migration.

It added it would also cover access to each other's markets and trade across the North Sea.

After Berlin, Sir Keir will travel to Paris to meet French President Emmanuel Macron and attend the Paralympics opening ceremony.