IRAQ-WHAT'S NEXT?

IRAQ - WHAT'S NEXT?
By Lt.Gen. V.R. Raghavan (ret.)
IPS COLUMNIST SERVICE, MARCH 2003

It would be useful to make an assessment of the way the war in Iraq is likely to unfold, writes Lt. Gen. V.R. Raghavan (ret.) is a military analyst with first-hand experience of the Iraqi Army.

In this analysis for IPS, the author writes that regime change is not going to be possible without the occupation and control of Baghdad by coalition forces. If the coalition forces use massive fire power inside Baghdad, there will be widespread damage to innocent people. This will be reported by international media and increase hostility to the invasion around the world.

Saddam Hussein does not have the military strength to stop the invasion. He can, however, contest the possession of Baghdad and other major cities. The question is when will they control the cities effectively enough to bring about regime change?

In the interim there is a wild card which can upset all calculations: the possibility of an internal revolt in Baghdad by which Saddam Hussein would be either replaced or removed from the scene through violent action. Were that to happen, it's impossible to know how stability could be attained in Middle East, even with regime change in Iraq. Every one is waiting and watching.
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(*) Lt.Gen. V.R. Raghavan (ret.) is a military analyst with first-hand experience of the Iraqi Army. 16963
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