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Evaluating Conditional Probability of Survival

 
 
scottm
 
Reply Fri 6 Mar, 2020 03:28 am
I’m looking to analyse a Survival data event relating to lottery draw data. The event being is the time taken for one of the six winning numbers to be drawn again.
A table of the data is shown as attached
draw trials occurred did_not_occur km_prob
2 1304 228 1076 0.83
3 1076 365 711 0.55
4 711 294 417 0.32
5 417 212 205 0.16
6 205 95 110 0.08
7 110 110 0 0.00

I’d be looking to say, find the conditional probability of this event happening in the next draw, given that ‘failure’ hasn’t occurred for 2 draws.
Could you please advise the best technique to evaluate the likelihood ?
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BillRM
 
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Reply Fri 6 Mar, 2020 05:30 pm
@scottm,
Such events does not have a memory.
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