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CLIMATE CHANGE--NOT A NEW THING.

 
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Wed 29 Jan, 2020 10:33 pm
@farmerman,
The Inuit have problems with the polar bears coming into villages looking for food, and in 2018, one man was convicted for killing a polar bear. One of the main problems they ave now is the grizzlies moving north in response to warming.
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Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Wed 29 Jan, 2020 10:48 pm
Here's a CBC article about grizzlies expanding their range into the arctic.
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Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Wed 29 Jan, 2020 11:09 pm
Here's a National Geographic article about grizzlies moving into territory near Churchill, and speculation about polar/grizzly hybrids.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/2/100226-grizzly-bears-polar-bears-hybrid-canada/
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edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 10:13 am
Temperatures at a Florida-Size Glacier in Antarctica Alarm Scientists
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/temperatures-at-a-florida-size-glacier-in-antarctica-alarm-scientists/ar-BBZrEGw
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 07:53 pm
@edgarblythe,
The ice shelves of Antarctica are the biggest threats for massive sea level rise. Miami is only six feet above sea level. Bye bye Miami . . .
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 07:58 pm
@Setanta,
yeh, this new unleashed sheet of ice was bound to the rock, now it appears to be making like on bigass ice cube being plopped in the glass full of water.

Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 08:09 pm
@farmerman,
I don't know how much longer I'll live, but we're on the bluffs above Lake Ontario, about 180 feet above sea level.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 08:14 pm
@Setanta,
oh hell, youre lookin down the barrel of a SUPERGLACIER.

Were on a hillside in lovely Lancaster County at about 500'AMSL.

Im thinkin our sheep and chickens will live. Not so sure about the ducks, but thats just because Ive found some new recipes for the Lunar New Year and seems that this is the year of the Peking duck,(maybe not)
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 08:43 pm
Houston was built on swampy ground and every year or two gets heavily flooded. It's their own fault for just throwing in any project they wanted to without a thought to flood control. Any large project in Tomball has to have at the very least a retainer pond. We aren't that awfully far down the coast from Louisiana, so I am certain the water rising there is rising here. My own property is on a very long incline, so I don't personally expect to get flooded. But if everybody else gets washed away I would have to leave too, I guess.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2020 10:47 pm
@edgarblythe,
The last chunk to break off an Antarctic ice shelf was the size of the state of Delaware. This one is the size of Florida. How long before one the size of Texas breaks off?
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 31 Jan, 2020 05:36 am
@Setanta,
The "micro stratigraphy" of coastal New ENgland and cave deposits in the Appalachians, chronicle the expansion and retreat of species ranges as climate changes occured in the late pleistocene. Spotted skunks and Cave bears all showed that they would range farther north during the stadial times and move their ranges south whenever the climate got colder.
Spotted skunks are being proposed as thermal index species for the late Pleistocene ,the Holocene and into the "Anthropocene". They have a wide range and an evolution track and are quick to become "Snow bunnies" as they move south and north dependent upon climate.
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Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Fri 31 Jan, 2020 08:51 pm
I was struck by the grizzlies moving north. Climate change didn't do that, it was human development in their former ranges. But during the "super" global warming between 9000 ybp and 8000 ybp, did the grizzlies move north then into an expanded range, and eventually become polar bears? Makes ya think, ya know?
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Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Fri 31 Jan, 2020 08:56 pm
Just as I mentioned at the beginning, about anthrax spores released in the Russian arctic as permafrost melted, melting permafrost and glaciers have the potential to release bacterial spores and viruses which have been locked away for a very long time. I'm just a little bundle of sunshine.
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Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Wed 5 Feb, 2020 10:05 pm
Here's a time line on what climatologists and historians know or believe.

As I've already mentioned, the warmest climate cycle which has been identified was between 9000 ybp and 8000 ybp (ybp=years before the present). All climatologists believe that during that climate warming event, the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer. Some of them (a definite minority) believe that at one point in that period, the Arctic Ocean was ice-free year round. This was followed by the 8.2 kiloyear event.

The next important colling event was the 5.9 kiloyear event, also referred to as a Bond event. In this period, highly organized civilizations arose in Egypt, Mesopotamia, the Indus River Valley and in the Yellow River Valley in China. In each case, itappears (to historians) that the social organization was a response to the aridification event caused by climate cooling. In Mesopotamia, what is called the Sumerian culture organized temple societies which controlled irrigation, collected and then redistributed harvests, and organized the slaughter of livestock. (They were soon taken over by a Semitic people, the Akkadians, who are responsible for the name "Sumeria.") There were similar cultural developments in Egypt, the Indus Valley and the Yellow River Valley, and historians consider these to have been responses to the need to control water and agricultural resources.

The next climate cooling and aridification event was the 4.2 kiloyear event. This had a profound impact in the northern hemisphere. Sargon the Great, an Akkadian ruler, greatly expanded the territory controlled by his empire. Upon his death, however, the Elamites (from what we would think of as western Persia or Iran) were able to exploit the infighting of his sons, and successfully invade Akkadia. It was in the wake of that collapse that the Assyrian Empire Arose. In China, the Longshan culture collapsed, In China, the Longshan was replaced by the Yueshi culture, which was much less sophisticated, and the settlements of which seem to have been much less populous. It is believed that the failure of rice harvests lead to the collapse of the Longshan culture.

I'll be back later withanother post about the Heirrich events (the break uip of glaciers and the resulting disruption of Atlantic thermohaline cycles), as well as thoughts on important climate change events, some identified as Bond events, and others not (to my knowledge) identified by climatologists.

Give humanity's chronic long-term memory failures, it would be useful to see what climate change has done in the past.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Feb, 2020 05:39 am
@Setanta,
cool. Did you find any time lines on these?? There was an almost unexplainable High River mark on the Delaware and the Chesapeake that went back to about 3500 years and this was a D A Cycle but didnt seem to fit. During this period of about 200 yars, the entire river bottoms flooded an buried several long standing Virginia Pine Forests
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Feb, 2020 06:57 am
@farmerman,
I thought I had linked the "Bond Events." I'll insert that link here--the Wikipedia page has a simple time line.

The Bond event

You might also find the Heinrich events interesting. The Wikipedia article goes into considerable detail about the effects of glaciation and ice-refting.

The Heinrich event

Note that these are cooling events. When I get the time to put it all together, I'll point out how our era may differ from past climate warming events.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Feb, 2020 07:02 am
I became aware of these climate change events because of their historical impact. When idiots like Plump make comments about global warming it just reinforces my contempt for conservatives who seem to be natural-born shills for the energy industry.

Climatology was hardly a science when I studies history at university, but historians had already noticed a pattern of aridification events roughly every two thousand years, and their profound impact on human civilizations. When climatology got up and running, the pattern was more closely identified. The Wikipedia articles are not that detailed, but I can't link the books I've read over the years.
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farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Feb, 2020 07:03 am
@Setanta,
for some reason, links arent showing in BLUE on this friggin adding mchine. DAMMMIT.
Thanks..... Im gonna hve to call mr IT
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Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Feb, 2020 03:51 pm
The Greek historian Strabo reported on a Greek merchant captain who traded into Britain for tin, sailing in the late fourth and early third century BCE. That captain tried to sail north one year to trade for walrus ivory. However, he encountered brash ice in the northern reaches of what we call the Irish Sea, and saw pack ice to the north of that. This was in a period of deep climate cooling lasting (very roughly) from about 500 BCE to 500 CE. In another thread, George (perennial shill for the energy industry) said that there was a rise in average annual temperature of 2.2 degrees C in the so-called Medieval Warm Period (known to historians as the climactic optimum). That was not much warming to make up for the cooling which had preceded it, and especially in view of the cooling which succeeded it. It also ignores that we've reached that point already in our own climate warming period, with centuries to go.

The Climactic Optimum was succeeded by a period of climate cooling which is referred to as the Little Ice Age. This page has a timeline for the Little Ice Age. In particular, check out the tab for the Maunder Minimum, which posits that the extreme cooling was due to a " cooler" sun. That tab, with the rubric 1645, covers the period 1645 to 1715. The early 18th century was the "bottom" of that cooling period. In particular, there is a heap of anecdotal evidence for the winters of 1708-09 and 1709-10. This is because in western Europe, England, Holland the Holy Roman Empire were fighting France in the War of the Spanish Succession; at the same time, the Great Northern War was raging in eastern Europe. In the low countries and France in the winter of 1709-10, birds froze to death and fell dead from the trees. Massive wolf packs attacked the barriers at city gates, and those who managed to get into the cities hunted the homeless or those who had been foolish enough to go out at night, and killed and ate them. In the spring, farmers and woodsmen found that rabbits had frozen to death in their burrow, and badgers in their setts by the stench of the rotting bodies as the spring weather warmed the ground.

That fool Charles XII of Sweden invaded Russia in 1708 with an army of nearly 100,000 men. Without going into details of his folly, he lost almost all of that army--and almost 14,000 were known to have frozen to death. At Poltava in 1709, he had fewer than 20,000 men left, and most of them who were not killed in battle were captured. Charles escaped to seek refuge with the Turks, with 2000 survivors. People in eastern Europe considered the winter of 1708-09 to have been the coldest known.

Climatologists consider the Little Ice Age to ave finally ended in the 1870s. I don't understand their reasoning for that--so far, what I can find online doe snot explsin their reasoning. Given that it is said to have started in 1300 (most historians point to notable cooling in the previous century), that's about five centuries in the deep freeze.

All of this leads me to suggest that this climate warming which we are entering may reach new heights unseen for 9000 years. It's not that mankind is causing this cycle of climate change, but the CO2 and methane being pumped into the atmosphere is certainly exacerbating the run away temperatures. As recently as ten years ago, climatologists were predicting that the Antarctic ice shelves could begin to break up in 50 years time. But already we've seen a chunk the size of Delaware break off and now a chunk the size of Florida.

Fasten your seat belts, sports fans. It's gonna be a long, long, extremely hot summer.
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Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Feb, 2020 06:43 pm
Here is an interesting video I've found which explains the longer climate cylces, which measure in tens of thousands rather than the several hundreds of the climate cycles to which I have been referring. It also explains the variations in our axial tilt and in the relative eccentricity of our orbit around our star. Our orbit is not circular. Enjoy.

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