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Professor Lichtman’s 12 Keys to the White House

 
 
Lash
 
Reply Sat 21 Dec, 2019 07:45 pm
I don’t know what I was doing that resulted in finding out about this guy, but I thought it might make for an interesting diversion for people who haven’t heard of him.

This history professor accurately predicted the last nine presidential elections by using a process he developed over the years. He’s tweaked it recently to include another key...

Fun to try to make predictions yourself.

The 🔑 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

14. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.


The above 13 keys are slightly different from the 12 keys originally proposed in 1981.

https://youtu.be/CBPcacIvdIY
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Type: Question • Score: 2 • Views: 261 • Replies: 10
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Dec, 2019 07:51 pm
Lichtman says at least 6 of the keys have to go against the incumbent to cause them to lose.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Dec, 2019 08:05 pm
Uh-oh.
Looks like everything may hinge on the charisma of the opposition nominee.

Only one has a huge, energized, diverse following with deep pockets.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Dec, 2019 08:59 pm
@Lash,
You are saying one of them has some kind of charisma?
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Dec, 2019 09:21 pm
@roger,
Sorry, I misread.

Yeah, not charisma in the way you might be thinking, but Bernie commands a LOT of allegiance with a lot of voters. He has a million people knocking on doors. He was given 1mil on debate day just because.
I think he’s the only one that satisfies that Key.


I’d say Trump is a No there, (but of course, there are people packing stadiums who’d say otherwise. Lichtman doesn’t say how to call a partisan question) and the D is an unknown.

Honestly, though, I only see him losing 1, 8, & 9 so far. I don’t think he’s had a foreign policy success of failure—as interpreted by the general public.

Sturgis
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Dec, 2019 10:42 pm
@Lash,
Please, oh please, tell me you are not allowed near a profession involving numbers!

Thread title: ...12 Keys...

Then you list them: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14

What happened to 13, or are you one of them thar people who are suspicious and never walk alone under a leader or throw salt over your kinfolk without reading Curfew Must Not Ring Tonight?


As to the video and Lichtman, who cares?
I had warned/told/informed people that Trump was going to most likely win the election. You don't see me posting weird videos.


I don't trust him.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Dec, 2019 06:15 am
@Sturgis,
I think I explained that when Lichtman started this theory, there were 12–his book refers to 12, and in interviews, he still refers to the theory as 12, even though 1 was added. That’s his schtick, I’m just reporting it.

I think your reaction is a little weird, but 🤷‍♀️.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Dec, 2019 07:12 am
@Lash,
Lash wrote:

, but Bernie commands a LOT of allegiance with a lot of voters. He has a million people knocking on doors.


So did Jeremy Corbyn.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Dec, 2019 07:23 am
@izzythepush,
Corbyn also (surprise to me) was sort of forced into the unpopular Brexit position.

We don’t have a comparison with Brexit—but I am still horrified by your result. Hoping good outcomes for Britain.

——————
Btw, this Lichtman process is just meant for fun. I have no idea how Lichtman will interpret these keys. I will be watching, though.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Dec, 2019 10:04 am
@Lash,
Corbyn wasn't forced into anything, he decided to adopt a Brexit neutral stance despite shadow cabinet members telling him to take a firmer stance.

There are no good outcomes, we have an American in Number 10 whose loyalties lie with America, Trump and money.

In years to come we will use Boris Johnson the same way you use Benedict Arnold although the results will be far more catastrophic for us.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Jan, 2020 05:40 pm
More prognosticating.

https://macroaffairs.com/13-keys-to-the-white-house-2020-allan-lichtman/books/

13 Keys to the White House
Probabilities retrieved on 21-02-2019. True (= 1) favors the incumbent party, while False (= 0) favors the main challenger.

Key Score Comment
1 – Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections 0 2018 midterm elections

2 – Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination 0.71 Predictit.org Probability of Trump being the GOP nominee

3 – Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president 0.71 See answer above

4 – Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign (more than 5%) 1 Predictit.org third party probabilities

5 – Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign 0.44 Predictit.org indicates a 44% chance of a recession during the Trump presidency

6 – Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms 0.5 According to the FRED [1][2] economic growth is higher under Trump than under Obama

7 – Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy 1 Major changes include Tax, Trade, and Environmental Regulation

8 – Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term 0.9 Not even the shutdown or Mueller investigation led to sustained social unrest

9 – Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal 0 Russian meddling, breach of the emoluments clause, #metoo

10 – Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs 0.9 So far, so good for the Republicans

11 – Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs 0.2 Perhaps North Korea or Syria withdrawal, or the trade war. But no major success yet.

12 – Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero 0.73 Predictit.org Republican nomination is likely charismatic

13 – Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero 0.69 Predictit.org Democratic nomination – sum probability of Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker

Total score: 7.8 Incumbent party is set to win
The table above gives the incumbent GOP a preliminary score of 7.8, which is above the 6.5 needed to win – indicating that the Republicans are ahead in the 2020 election. But the Democrats need to win just 1.3 points to gain the upper hand.
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