More prognosticating.
https://macroaffairs.com/13-keys-to-the-white-house-2020-allan-lichtman/books/
13 Keys to the White House
Probabilities retrieved on 21-02-2019. True (= 1) favors the incumbent party, while False (= 0) favors the main challenger.
Key Score Comment
1 – Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections 0 2018 midterm elections
2 – Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination 0.71 Predictit.org Probability of Trump being the GOP nominee
3 – Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president 0.71 See answer above
4 – Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign (more than 5%) 1 Predictit.org third party probabilities
5 – Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign 0.44 Predictit.org indicates a 44% chance of a recession during the Trump presidency
6 – Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms 0.5 According to the FRED [1][2] economic growth is higher under Trump than under Obama
7 – Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy 1 Major changes include Tax, Trade, and Environmental Regulation
8 – Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term 0.9 Not even the shutdown or Mueller investigation led to sustained social unrest
9 – Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal 0 Russian meddling, breach of the emoluments clause, #metoo
10 – Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs 0.9 So far, so good for the Republicans
11 – Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs 0.2 Perhaps North Korea or Syria withdrawal, or the trade war. But no major success yet.
12 – Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero 0.73 Predictit.org Republican nomination is likely charismatic
13 – Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero 0.69 Predictit.org Democratic nomination – sum probability of Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker
Total score: 7.8 Incumbent party is set to win
The table above gives the incumbent GOP a preliminary score of 7.8, which is above the 6.5 needed to win – indicating that the Republicans are ahead in the 2020 election. But the Democrats need to win just 1.3 points to gain the upper hand.