13 Keys to the White House
Probabilities retrieved on 21-02-2019. True (= 1) favors the incumbent party, while False (= 0) favors the main challenger.
Key Score Comment
1 – Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections 0 2018 midterm elections
2 – Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination 0.71 Predictit.org Probability of Trump being the GOP nominee
3 – Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president 0.71 See answer above
4 – Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign (more than 5%) 1 Predictit.org third party probabilities
5 – Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign 0.44 Predictit.org indicates a 44% chance of a recession during the Trump presidency
6 – Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms 0.5 According to the FRED  economic growth is higher under Trump than under Obama
7 – Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy 1 Major changes include Tax, Trade, and Environmental Regulation
8 – Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term 0.9 Not even the shutdown or Mueller investigation led to sustained social unrest
9 – Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal 0 Russian meddling, breach of the emoluments clause, #metoo
10 – Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs 0.9 So far, so good for the Republicans
11 – Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs 0.2 Perhaps North Korea or Syria withdrawal, or the trade war. But no major success yet.
12 – Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero 0.73 Predictit.org Republican nomination is likely charismatic
13 – Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero 0.69 Predictit.org Democratic nomination – sum probability of Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker
Total score: 7.8 Incumbent party is set to win
The table above gives the incumbent GOP a preliminary score of 7.8, which is above the 6.5 needed to win – indicating that the Republicans are ahead in the 2020 election. But the Democrats need to win just 1.3 points to gain the upper hand.