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Wed 20 Apr, 2005 07:41 am
Korea has repeatedly declared in recent months that it now possesses nuclear weapons.
And I think Korean bomb is not a diplomatic bluff. As it has been reported with the help of spy satellites US intelligence service has fixed discharges of krypton-85 in air around Yongbyon's nuclear reactor, which is Korean main mean of obtaining plutonium for its nuclear weapons. And US analysts have estimated that used nuclear fuel rods could yield enough plutonium for at least two nuclear bombs, if North Korea has the necessary reprocessing technology. Kim Yong-nam, the national assembly president said that they would continue to develop the "nuclear deterrent", which North Korea needs to fend off the "hostile Bush administration". But he stressed that "Korea is ready to freeze production of nuclear weapons if the USA vows not to attack it or overthrow Kim Jong-il's regime". One can sense the voice of Peking in his words. It's Chinese typical style of behavior, isn't it? Peking always prefers to act, staying in the background. In reality exactly China is interested in Korean nuclear arsenal that "serves as main deterrent to evert a war and ensure security in the Korean Peninsula and the rest of north-east Asia". Surely, Peking will never agree to have united and US controllable Korea close by own borders. And it is an added reason for probable Chinese nuclear engineering's' assistance to Pyongyang in the field of reprocessing used nuclear fuel rods to make the ingredients for Korean's nuclear arms.
But is it in PRC's interest to have a nuclear NKorea? What if a nuclear regime in Korea forces Japan to get nuclear as well? Japan has both the capability and resources right now. With the Sino-Japanese ties at a new lot, such a scenario will not aid China's plans for the neighborhood.
A nuclear NKorea is really not in the interest of Beijing. Indeed North Korea's claim of possessing the nuclear power has embarrassed Beijing, even annoyed. You know at first, Beijing was trying to persuade USA to believe that NKorea didn't have nuclear weapons. And now NKorea's act is equivalent to a stab on Beijing's back.
(NuclearExpert: one suggestion, Peking is really a old way of calling the country's very capital.)
We opened Pandoras box a long time ago. All the whining, gnashing of teeth, attempted restricitions, bullying, posing and saber rattling in the world will not close it.
So let's party.
Do you think States is in a position to blink first now? I think it would affect its position in dealing with not only Iran but also non-NPT yet nuclear states like India, Pakistan and Israel.
Besides I would hazard to guess that "keep it simmering but do not let it blow" might be the strategy followed by PRC. The resolve of this issue at a later stage might be tied to the State's support to Taiwan.