7
   

I think Elizabeth Warren can win.

 
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 09:33 am
I think the 1/1024 meme and attack ad material will haunt her for her career.
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 09:36 am
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

I think the 1/1024 meme and attack ad material will haunt her for her career.

Considering what albatross crap that Trump has been carrying over his neck for his entire lifetime? I don't expect this bit of useless trivia will be a Elizabeth Warren career killer.

The Democrats need to be able to ... (sigh) spin this one off the proverbial discussion table. In the big picture of things? It's really goofy and trivial. Not even an anthill to a mountain but a quark compared to a mountain.
maporsche
 
  4  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 09:39 am
@tsarstepan,
tsarstepan wrote:

maporsche wrote:

I think the 1/1024 meme and attack ad material will haunt her for her career.

Considering what albatross crap that Trump has been carrying over his neck for his entire lifetime? I don't expect this bit of useless trivia will be a Elizabeth Warren career killer.


Yeah but Trumps supporters don’t give a crap about it, obviously.

I didn’t say “career-killer”. Not saying it will ruin her, just haunt her and linger around for the rest of her career.

I think she made an unforced error there, but likely not one to ruin her career.
tsarstepan
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 09:43 am
@maporsche,
Your right. Call me naïve but I'm hoping that the Democrats at large can STOP being stupid fools and stop wasting time on presidential campaign killing unforced errors.

The voting public really needs to stop caring about Dukakis' tank ride; Kerry's sailboarding; Howard Dean's overly enthusiastic woot; etc.... The alleged center/independent voters of America? Really need to fracking grow up.
maporsche
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 09:47 am
@tsarstepan,
tsarstepan wrote:

The alleged center/independent voters of America? Really need to fracking grow up.


Wholly, enthusiastically, agreed.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 09:55 am
@tsarstepan,
There's nothing naive about hope.

It would be naive to believe they will.

The notion that these people, in the main and on both sides of the aisle, are somehow superior to the common folk is absurd...and naive.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  2  
Reply Thu 6 Dec, 2018 12:55 pm
Saw an analysis on 538.com today on how much incumbency is worth. Interesting point, Warren won by a large margin, 24 points, but she actually significantly under performed where statistics say she was expected to come in by over 14 points. Another take by CNN using a different formula:
Quote:
The Massachusetts secretary of state certified the state's US Senate election results this week and found that Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren defeated Republican Geoff Diehl by 24 points...

Warren's margin may sound impressive, until you realize Hillary Clinton won Massachusetts by 27 points in 2016. Clinton won by 3 more points than Warren, despite 2018 being a better year for Democrats nationally and Warren having the advantage of incumbency.
Warren's performance in 2018 was one of the weakest for a Democratic Senate candidate. I created a simple statistical formula explaining the results of the 34 Senate races with at least one Democrat (or independent who caucuses with the Democrats) and one Republican. Controlling for a state's weighted average partisanship and incumbency, Warren's performance was the sixth worst of all Democrats. She did 7 points worse than expected. (For comparison, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders outperformed their baselines by 9 and 12 points respectively.)


Of course Massachusetts moderate Republicans might have found Diehl more palatable than Trump, but that should still give Warren pause.
0 Replies
 
 

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