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A Probablitiy question involving betting, Coin Flipping, and $50k

 
 
Reply Mon 8 Oct, 2018 08:59 pm
So, Say that I had $50,000 and I was to flip a coin (50% chance heads, 50% chance tails) And I could choose either heads or tails before the flip. And, I could bet any amount of $ from my sum of 50,000 and would get double back what I betted if I won, and nothing if I lost. And then I could repeat the process with my new sum. What would the best strategy be in order to gain money over time?
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Type: Question • Score: 1 • Views: 531 • Replies: 4
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engineer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Oct, 2018 12:44 am
@TheWanderer27,
Bet $1. If you lose, double your bet to $2, then $4, etc until you win again, then return on $1. As long as you don't throw 15 straight losses, this strategy will gain you $1 every time you win.
engineer
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Oct, 2018 06:16 am
@engineer,
Just to be clear, this strategy shifts the probability from even chance of winning or losing the same amount of money to a very small chance to lose a ton of money versus a very large chance to win a small amount of money. There is no magic scheme that suddenly allows you to "beat the house".
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Oct, 2018 03:33 pm
@engineer,
Derren Brown did a trick where he tossed 15 consecutive heads in a row and he's got the tape to prove it.

But there's more to it than that, he did toss 15 in a row but it took him a very long time. Every time he got tails he started again, eventually he hit a stretch where he got 15 heads in a row but it took ages.
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maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Wed 10 Oct, 2018 03:45 pm
@TheWanderer27,
The expected value for any bet is $0... meaning that on average, you will get $0 (and lose $0) for any bet you make. There is no strategy that will gain you money over time.

Engineers strategy is an interesting strategy, but at most he will earn you $1. At worst he will lose you $32,768. He is giving you 32,767/32,768 of earning a dollar, and 1/32,768 chance of losing $32,768. The expected value is still zero.

In my opinion, the best strategy is just to pocket the $50,000. Why waste all that time flipping a coin to risk $32,768. If you are going to gamble, you really should understand the concept of expected value.




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