The peak of this warming trend (the small trend withing the larger one) will come about 2400 or 2500 CE. A cycle to plunge us into an "ice age" is more problematic. The last drastic glaciations have been products of a concatenation of atmospheric conditions, oceanic salinity and relative distance from the sun. It is also believed that the positions of the continents is a significant factor. The earliest climatological studies were motivated by interest in or even anxiety about ice ages, not about global warming. In fact, massive glaciations appear to have been common only within the last two to three million years. By that consideration, we are actually in a glacial period, with an interstadial (warming period) currently prevailing. The last significant warming period was between 8000 and 9000 ybp. Apparently all climatologists believe that the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in summer in that period, while not all, but a majority believe it was ice-free year round for several centuries.
This has been studied for about three centuries, which is to say "ice ages" and glaciation. As a scientific discipline common in universities it only dates back to the 1960s. Many of us who attended university in those years were bemused when people began talking about global warming, because the pundits of science 50 years ago were talking about an impending ice age.
Of interest to those who are interested in warming and cooling periods are the recently named "kiloyear" events, which are characterized by aridification (desert-like conditions spreading) at the "bottom" of cooling periods. These have actually been studied, until very recently, more by historians and archaeologists than climate scientists--they correspond to significant migrations and the collapse of civilizations. Do a search for the 8.2 kiloyear event, the 5.9 kiloyear event and the 4.2 kiloyear event. Our most recent cooling event bottomed out about 1700. (The winter of 1709-10 was very severe in Europe--and well recorded. In western Europe, the War of the Spanish Succession raged on, and the Duke of Marlborough kept the field in that winter. In the east, the Great Northern War was in its most severe period, and the Swedes began marching to their doom in what we would call the Ukraine in 1708.)
@ehBeth,
what a giant intellect. Everytime I hear him talk I have to take notes.
@farmerman,
But back to the evidence for global warming separate from Malenkovich and van Houten cycles. We saw Brown pelicans far north on the Susquehanna Flats just below the Conowingo Power facility. Look like pterodactyls flying about and diving after gizzard shad. Ungainly on the ground, beautiful flyers and divers.
Ill know the biogeographic fcts when I hear of spotted skunks showing up in the mid Appalachians.
@farmerman,
I’m waiting for the first lizards to show up in New Hampshire. Haven’t seen any yet though.
@rosborne979,
Horny toads in Alberta might be pretty neat.
@edgarblythe,
DID you know that Larence Ferlinghetti is STILL ALIVE?
Theres a show of his colorit paintings opening in NYC and he wont be able to attend due to his advanced age (~ 100 yrs) and hes got some bd health issues.
His paintings are similar to those of David Baziotes with whom he had been known to close a few bars on a nightly basis.
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:Horny toads in Alberta might be pretty neat.
We have horny toads here already, but those are just amphibians having fun.
I think we're a long way off from having any real Horned Toad Lizards here in wintry New Hampshire.
@rosborne979,
Gotta love Plump. HIs major reason for dropping out of the PAris Agreement was that"Other countries are just as responsible for global warming"
(my term-climate change is just an ass covering term by guys likePlumpity)
So dropping out will do what??Help fix it?? He is such a petulant little douche bag isnt he?
