Iraq - The Long Goodbye?

A concern of mine, regarding war in Iraq, is that entering the country may be easier than leaving. While of course there is the possibility that some in positions of power, may like the idea of staying on in Iraq for decades, to babysit the oilfields, the problem is that Iraq may become the Middle Eastern version of the Balkans, once / if the West leaves.

With Kurds in the north, Shia in the south, and Sunni in the middle, there is the potential for conflict if a power vacuum is created. Saddam Hussein is a Sunni, but the real majority in Iraq are the Shia, who have ties with Iran. If we really intend on creating a 'democratic' country, as we understand the term, then the Shia would be the likely winners of an election. However, if a 'democratic' election means that the Kurds and Sunni feel excluded from power, it could mean that problems will continue in the country, possibly leading to civil war as the three groups scramble to gain control of areas of Iraq.

Hopefully our 'leaders' in the West, have a long term plan for Iraq, after Hussein is gone, or we may be stuck with the role of peacekeeper for several years, before we can finally say goodbye.



Here is a reasonably informative article from the National Geographic, concerning this issue.

Iraq Expert Predicts "Problems of Control"
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/11/1119_021119_iraqexpert.html