Mother Russia's on Birth Control?

Reply Fri 14 Jan, 2005 05:04 pm
Russian Population To Fall By A Third By 2050


MOSCOW - Russia's population will fall by a third by the middle of this century, when the world's biggest country will have 100 million people -- less than Egypt, Vietnam or Uganda, Russia's Security Council said on Thursday.
Russia has been in the grip of a demographic crisis since before the fall of the Soviet Union, as economic collapse cut the birth rate and rampant smoking, drinking and growing levels of disease have pushed up mortality.

"Forecasts show that by the middle of the 21st century the population will fall by around one third, to around 100 million people," the Security Council said in a statement on Web site www.scrf.gov.ru.

"The demographic situation in Russia is extremely unfavourable, and in the next few years it could get even worse ... The average life expectancy of a Russian man is 15 years less than that of the average American man."

Officials in areas as diverse as the economy and defence are concerned about the trend, seeing a collapse in Russia's population from the current 145 million as catastrophic for the country's future.

According to forecasts by the US Census Bureau, a population of 100 million in 2050 would give Russia the 17th largest population in the world, from its current eighth place.

Egypt, Uganda, Vietnam and Ethiopia will all move above it, according to the figures.

Story Date: 14/1/2005


I wonder what this will do to the balance of power?
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Reply Sat 15 Jan, 2005 04:53 am
I wonder where will China's population be ranked in 2050.
I heard it was projected to be ranked the second, after the huge monster of India.
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Reply Sat 15 Jan, 2005 01:50 pm
From what I've read China and India will be major players in the World Economy (and hence in World Affairs) by the middle of this century.
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Reply Wed 19 Jan, 2005 08:45 pm

BEIJING - The middle class in booming China will swell to nearly half the population by 2020 from just 5 percent now, state media said on Wednesday.
China classified as middle class those making between 60,000 yuan ($7,250) and 500,000 yuan a year, Xinhua news agency quoted the National Bureau of Statistics as saying.

"The proportion of middle class in China will expand to 45 percent in 2020 from today's 5 percent," it quoted Cheng Xuebing, an official with the bureau, as saying.

The estimates were based on a recent survey of Chinese urban residents, Xinhua said.

Living standards for China's 1.3 billion people have risen sharply after more than two decades of economic reforms that have boosted private business and capitalist-style investment.

But tens of millions of people are still mired in poverty, and Beijing has been concerned that a widening wealth gap could undermine social stability.

(US$1 = 8.276 yuan)

Story Date: 20/1/2005

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© Reuters News Service 2003
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Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 02:31 am
I do not think, that Russian population will decrease in the future. Birth rate will rise simulteneously with the economy growth, the same way as life expectancy.

The growth of birth rate is noticed without any statistics, that's enough just walk on the streets or somewhere in the parks where a lot of man and women with baby carriges. Some of my friends already planning for second child, that was impossible a couple of years ago.

The Russian population now is about 145 million, that's less than in Brazil, Pakistan or Indonesia, some countres like Nigeria are very close.
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Merry Andrew
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 03:30 am
I agree with Glorius. I don't think that projection takes all the factors into consideration. The projection -- like all such projections -- is based strictly on current trends. It does not take into consideration any variables, such as a growing economy, better health care, changes in social norms etc. etc. It would be fair to say that the population will decline IF the present trends continue, that's all.
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