The Fermi Paradox

@engineer,

More sneering. From NASA's page on the Vanguard project:

Quote:

PEOPLE the world over speak of the "Space Age" as beginning with the launching of the Russian Sputnik on 4 October 1957. Yet Americans might well set the date hack at least to July 1955 when the White House, through President Eisenhower's press secretary, announced that the United States planned to launch a man-made earth satellite as an American contribution to the International Geophysical Year. If the undertaking seemed bizarre to much of the American public at that time, to astrophysicists and some of the military the government's decision was a source of elation: after years of waiting they had won official support for a project that promised to provide an invaluable tool for basic research in the regions beyond the upper atmosphere. Six weeks later, after a statement came from the Pentagon that the Navy was to take charge of the launching program, most Americans apparently forgot about it. It would not again assume great importance until October 1957.

That puts the date back to as least as early as July, 1955, well before NASA existed. Of course, there was the technical panel established in 1953, as mentioned in the NAS page which i quoted. Perhaps you think that the space program just leapt full-grown from NASA like Athena from the brow of Zeus. But if you stamp your foot and yell loud enough, maybe nobody will notice that you're wrong.

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@Setanta,

Didn't I post that exact entry here? (As for sneering, once you tell someone to go play with themselves, you really shouldn't expect civility.)

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@engineer,

You were sneering before then. Yes, you did post that, which makes even more incredible that you refuse to admit you are wrong. Really, this thread has become trashed like some political thread . . . thanks to your complete inability to admit that you're wrong.

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@Setanta,

From your own post: "PEOPLE the world over speak of the "Space Age" as beginning with the launching of the Russian Sputnik on 4 October 1957."

Yep.

From nasa.gov

Quote:

The driving force, of course, was the launch of Sputnik on Oct. 4, 1957, followed by its even weightier successors. In the midst of the Cold War, a country that aspired to global preeminence could not let that challenge pass. Although the United States already had its own satellite plans in place as part of the International Geophysical Year, the Russian events spurred the Space Age, and in particular gave urgency to the founding of an American national space agency.

Yep to that too.

Quote:

You were sneering before then.

You must live in the most polite place on Earth if you consider my comments sneering.

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@engineer,

Well, you were talking about name-calling earlier, without a leg to stand on. Yes, i do live in the most polite place on earth--Canada.

We were talking about the pace program, now you want to shift the goal line to "the space age." That's a typical political tread tactic.

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@Setanta,

Setanta wrote:

Well, you were talking about name-calling earlier, without a leg to stand on. Yes, i do live in the most polite place on earth--Canada.

Virtue by association only.

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Since Copernicus, we've tended more and more to assume that we do not occupy a special place in the universe. Could it be that we are sort of special, that the Earth was the recipient of extraordinarily good luck in the evolution of life and technology? This is basically, the "Great Filter" answer to the Fermi Paradox. But even so, could we be so lucky that in a universe of 10^22 stars, there is only us? Perhaps there are a lot of technical civilizations, and some of them do broadcast strongly on radio frequencies, but they tend to be thousands of light years apart.

There are many solution categories for the Fermi Paradox. It is certainly one of the greatest questions facing humanity, and I would really like some kind of answer before I die, but in all of recorded history to this point, there is no answer other than a complete failure to find anything.

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@Brandon9000,

Brandon9000 wrote:

Perhaps there are a lot of technical civilizations, and some of them do broadcast strongly on radio frequencies, but they tend to be thousands of light years apart.

This is a distinct possibility which would make it unlikely that we'd discover them while they still existed, or before we leave the scene. That life may be common is not evidence that sentient, self-aware, technological civilizations commonly arise. If we are at the beginning of the era of the rise of such civilizations, we may be all alone for a long time to come.

It is useful to keep in mind that we aren't really looking, either. SETI projects look at a tiny fraction of one percent of the sky. Additionally, radio and microwave signals such as we generate here are, on a galactic scale, so weak as to be likely unrecognizable--little different from the background noise.

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@engineer,

If I were to summarize the "Spae Age" (And remember this is a personal choice), I would state that is began on the day that Robert Goddard first successfully launched a liquid fueled rocket, for it was that act that led to the entire German Rocket program (They admitted swiping his data and methods), which, then, led to the Russian and US Space Programs.
It was the rocketry and the miniaturization of electronics that led to
what came after. Sputnik, like the V-2 was merely an application of concepts already understood, rocketry was the means.

Goddard stated that his tech was what would be needed for interplanetary travel at some distant date. he published several papers in the 1920's about "Methods for Reaching Extreme Altitudes". He was criticized as being ignorant of the laws of physics. However, the Germans spent a lot of time interviewing him in the 1930's and when Goddard came to the US War Dept he was rebuffed with quite a bit of ridicule.

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Interesting article about the Fermi Paradox, and what it would mean for human philosophy (both theist and atheist) if we ever did discover proof of intelligent alien life:

http://aeon.co/essays/how-the-discovery-of-extraterrestrial-life-would-change-morality

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@oralloy,

Interesting, not sure I can agree with the conclusions, but its a conversation maker.
For example, the wontians staying beneath "the radar" a conscious choice . If evolution of civilizations (sentient species need only reply), is a fact, I submit that the technologies, in their earliest days, precede the realization that they have a dark side. We didnt embrace the need for hiways and seat belts until we saw the car develop byond its early decades, I submit that communication is the same way

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@farmerman,

I have no opinions on the reason why we can't detect other civilizations at all, but I think one of the barriers to "galactic empires" is the speed of light. Despite the imaginations of Sci-Fi, I believe it is a hard barrier that no one will ever exceed. I believe that supposed loopholes like bending space or using wormholes have no practical travel possibilities regardless of an advanced civilization's level of technology.

However, it should be possible to get close enough to the speed of light for time dilation to shorten the journey for people making a long voyage. Such journeys will be one way trips though, not leisurely jaunts across a stellar empire, because even though time may seem to pass quickly for the people making the trip, when they get to their destination everybody they knew at home will be long dead.

That shouldn't be a barrier to interstellar colonies though. Poorer Europeans who traveled to the first colonies in North America often had no expectations of ever seeing home again. And there are people willing to make a one way trip to begin colonization of Mars.

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@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

I submit that communication is the same way

Do you think our radio broadcasts could possibly draw attention from something unpleasant?

How far away could our radio broadcasts be detected? I realize they are only traveling out at the speed of light so have only reached a certain distance at this time, but I'm thinking they are getting fainter all the time the farther they go, and after a certain distance they should be too faint to be noticeable. I wonder what that safe distance is after which our signals will be too faint to be noticed.

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@oralloy,

the square root rule would apply for radio waves as it does for light, I believe. My main point was that the wont's can only become wonts sometime well after the technology train thqt they wish to cloak may have long left the station.

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@oralloy,

Im thinking that maybe 80% c might be a realistic velocity goal, but will, of course, require all kinds of new drives. 80% c will mean that any signals will arrive 1.20 X faster than the ship en route

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@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

the square root rule would apply for radio waves as it does for light, I believe.

I believe so too. I wonder how far away we would have to be before our radio/TV broadcasts would not be noticed by something like SETI.

Granted that advanced aliens might have much greater detection capabilities than SETI has, but it would be a good baseline for estimating how far out we have exposed ourselves.

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@oralloy,

we use interferometry which links several radioscopes together and "knits the signals by dismissing any spurious signals and reinforcing the main ones sort of in a 3 d fashion." But it usually only works with a signal that allows enough parallax. I suppose if we hd more radioscopes in space aimed at a segment of the galaxy we would have better distance discrimination and better signal enhancement.

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@Brandon9000,

I am 99.99% certain that there is intelligent life in our galaxy besides us.

But I also think they are NOT visiting us nor have they ever.

The distances are the problem. Even with better technology, sub light speed is still too slow to really explore the galaxy. Even if you were to plot out potential places in the galaxy to investigate. It's still a huge undertaking to travel for thousands of years just to investigate.

The resources involved in traveling for thousands of years makes it impractical. Because what do you do if there is nothing to find when you get to the place to check?

I bet even a thousand years from now, we won't even be leaving our solar system. Sure we might have colonies on other planets or moons within our solar system but we still won't leave it. The resources to make long distance journeys is extremely impractical.

I bet there are probably a hundred intelligent species within our galaxy. But none of them will ever meet each other ever. The distances are just too large to make it happen.

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There is one possible shot at ftl travel and that would involve Biefeld/Brown propulsion. Question is, is it real??

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@Krumple,

Krumple wrote:

The distances are the problem. Even with better technology, sub light speed is still too slow to really explore the galaxy. Even if you were to plot out potential places in the galaxy to investigate. It's still a huge undertaking to travel for thousands of years just to investigate.

The resources involved in traveling for thousands of years makes it impractical. Because what do you do if there is nothing to find when you get to the place to check?

We would send unmanned probes to do the early exploration.

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The Fermi Paradox

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