Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 11:58 am
I'm seeing at this moment the DOW is up around 560. the DOW ranged 1,000 on last friday and is now up 553 so far today. I personally find this volitility far more frightening than the drop last week of some 1800 points. I had hoped this morning to see a gain of less than 200 for todays session. I seek most of all to see stability.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 11 • Views: 4,557 • Replies: 29
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farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 12:29 pm
@dyslexia,
the quick news response and 24 hour real time cycle is helping the seeming volatility. (Remember, none of these guys know anything more than you).

Also, just check the entire DOW in the last 15 years, there was more movement several times over than there had been since the DOW began.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 12:35 pm
@dyslexia,
Yeah, I know what you mean. What does it mean when the Dow can change directions and move 200 to 1,000 points in one session? It reminds me of driving at night, with no headlights, in a construction zone. Just making an instant change in response to the next thing that pops up, trying to stay on the road.

Even now, I don't think the markets are reflecting the markets. Too optimistic. We hear about mortgages and their rescues of the moment. Credit card debt. Hey, maybe the Fed will make good on those for us, too. Save me darn near $300.00.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 12:39 pm
@roger,
It's all based on the uncertainty of the short-term and long-term future of "all" economies. That the developed countries have decided to buy into their bank systems tells us that in the short-term, liquidity will return. What nobody knows is how all this infusion of money by the governments will affect the world economy for the long-term.

roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 12:40 pm
@cicerone imposter,
You know what else scares me? Cicerone imposter turning optimist after all these years.
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 12:45 pm
@dyslexia,
Actually I disagree with you Dys, because Europe getting its act together is surprising and welcome news -- well worth a rise of 553 points in the Dow. These particular fluctuations are not arbitrary.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 12:47 pm
@roger,
The reason I'm more optimist is simple; unless we believe in our economy, the alternative is unthinkable. Not for my wife and I, but for our children and all future generations.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 01:06 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Poll: Hopes slip on leaders fixing economy
Posted 50m ago |

By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON " Neither President Bush nor the two men vying to succeed him, John McCain and Barack Obama, have won the confidence of a majority of Americans to be able to "fix" the nation's economic crisis, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

Two-thirds of those surveyed say their personal financial situation has been harmed, and even more expect to suffer long-term damage from the mortgage meltdown and the stock market's precipitous fall.


They are braced for more: 73% call the economy "poor," and 84% predict it's getting worse.

The results were released as all three men delivered addresses Monday aimed at reassuring an anxious public and promising relief. Bush spoke at the White House after meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. McCain addressed a rowdy campaign rally in Virginia Beach, and Obama was to unveil economic proposals at a speech in Toledo, Ohio.

Three weeks before Election Day, Obama leads McCain by 51%-44% among registered voters, just outside the survey's margin of error of +/"3 percentage points. The poll of 1,269 adults was taken Friday through Sunday.
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  0  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 02:54 pm
@dyslexia,
This is how Wall St gets back a lot of the money it lost. It waits for the millions of amateur investors to panic and sell, then it buys everything at bottom dollar.

It's like a capitalism tax.
Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 03:06 pm
@rosborne979,
You've got it. I would bet that the pros with the brass balls made a fortune today.
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 03:23 pm
@Phoenix32890,
Yup, the American people just contributed to the bailout directly. The government bailout wasn't going fast enough so Wall St just used capitalism to take their own bailout. And we all played along.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 03:28 pm
@Phoenix32890,
Phoenix, Them are gold balls. LOL

However, mark my word; the volatility is not over yet.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 04:25 pm
Irrational exhuberance. So world markets soared 11%. The market must have hit bottom; time to hop on the joy ride back up. Stupid. What happened between Friday and Monday? A bunch of old farts met, tossed a trillion dollars of the public's money in, and said this should fix everthing. Perhaps it will. Or not.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 04:33 pm
@realjohnboy,
rjb, I believe they're doing more harm for the long-term economy, but there's nothing we can do. Governments should not interfere in the economy by rescuing bad management decisions. It'll bring much pain to more people, but that's how our economy is supposed to work. They're going with the wrong "rescue" plan by throwing money at the assets that do not have any knowable value. That's only "gambling," and there's a good chance their roll of the dice will end up with "craps."
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 05:03 pm
I'm inclined to believe that government (US ) does have both a responsibility and a mandate (general welfare) to moderate economic crises with whatever resources available; the only question should be "what is the best method for doing so?"
Socialism you say? well yes perhaps so but that's far better than then another WWII germany/japan/china introduced by world-wide economic depression.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 05:21 pm
@dyslexia,
That's the 64 thousand dollar question.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 05:28 pm
Wall Street's Big Bounce: Don't Start Cheering Yet

Quote:
Trying to predict whether the stock market will go up or down on any given day is a fool's game, but one thing is for sure: we live in highly volatile times. Wild swings to the upside may feel great, but they're still wild swings. That sort of dramatic movement can go both up and down, as we have witnessed.

These days, measures of volatility are off the charts, including the one Robert Engle, a Nobel-prize winning professor of finance at New York University, keeps tabs on. According to his calculations, which are based on past stock movements, the S&P 500 has a pretty decent chance a year from now of being worth either four times what it is today " or a quarter as much. That absurdly broad range, which falls in line with other volatility barometers, is indicative of how haywire stocks have been acting. "You saw that kind of volatility in the Brazilian and Argentinean markets in the beginning of the 1990s," says Engle. "You don't really expect to see it in developed economies."
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 06:08 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I agree; there's nothing to cheer. Future market swings are a given, and nobody knows yet where the bottom will be, although my base is around 9,000, as the crows fly.
0 Replies
 
shewolfnm
 
  2  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 06:16 pm
Can I raise my hand and say that I dont think this is all we will see?
That I think things will go lower........ lower then most people have ever seen. And I think it will happen soon.

This dow activity..........is just a scare.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2008 06:22 pm
@dyslexia,
Dys,

Take 2 steps back and look at the DOW again. The swing should look smaller. If that doesn't do it, try 2 more steps back. Repeat until you run out of room or can sleep comfortably in the hospital after being run over while standing in the road.
0 Replies
 
 

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