Put your money where your mouth is

If Santorum wins in Pa. I will sell my soul on e-Bay and give you the money.

If Santorum wins, farmerman, then we will all know that civilization, such as we have known, will cease to exist.

It will be the time of the Road Warrior.

Ive evn got a catahoula dog and a muscle car. All I need is some shoulder pads to wear.

That will be a sight.

Send photos.

I will be known as HEwmongous farmerman. I shall be feared. People will give me lupines.

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r) - Brown
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d) - McGaskill
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d) - Tester
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r) - Menendez
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r) - Ford
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d) - Allen (as much as I would like to believe otherwise)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d) - Whitehouse
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d) - Casey
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d) - Kyl
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r) - Cantwell
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r) - Klobuchar
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r) - Stabenow
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r) - Cardin

I give the Dems an increase of 6 seats which gives them a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

If there is a just God, who cares about His creation, George Allen will lose (I am not betting on it).

Cyclo, if I count correctly, you leave the Senate split 50-50...

Yeah, I do have the senate split 50-50. I don't think that would be such a bad thing; neither side is going to be very effective at keeping a single person from defecting to the other on the vast majority of votes, I think.

One question Ebrown


MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d) - McGaskill

Really? I mean, I know talent has been down in some of the polls... but it is missouri after all

Cycloptichorn

I watched a debate between Kennedy and Klobuchar the other night.

Kennedy is toast.

I agree, he's done.

I mean, when asked 'what's the plan for Iraq?' All he can say is 'to win.'

Which isn't a plan at all, really.

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn: No doubt you missed my similar thread on this topic when you posted yours.

Sorry, I did miss that.

I only made this thread because RealJohnBoy asked me to, ehehe

Cycloptichorn

I think McCaskill has what it takes. She is fairly conservative on issues and she is a good speaker. She will beat Talent.

My picks:
Ohio: Brown(d); Missouri: Talent(r); Montana: Testor(d);
New Jersey: Mendendez(d); Tennessee: Ford(d); Virginia: Allen(r);
Rhode Island: Chaffee(r); Pennsylvania: Casey(d); Arizona: Kyl);
Washington: Cantrell(d); Michigan: Stabenow(d); Maryland: Cardin(d)

Please feel free to join us is this thread/game that Cyclop has created. Vote early and vote often. It is the American way.

Re: Put your money where your mouth is
My winners in red:

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)

MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)

This seems the very closest race of them all. Anything that would move even the one percentage point could decide it. Eg, this is the one state where the pronouncement of the verdict against Saddam in Iraq - what was it, two days before the elections? - will swing the vote. (I dont really think it'll have all that much effect in general.)

MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)

Though it'll be a lot closer than the polls have been having it.

NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)

But not comfortable about this prediction at all..

TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)

Ford's been a great candidate, but I think the first black Senator in the South since Reconstruction - and the first Democrat elected since 1990 - is too much to hope for still at this time. He'll be close, though.

VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)

RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)

PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)

ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)

WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)

MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)

MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)

MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)


So that makes my prediction ... Republicans hold the Senate, 51 to 49.

Realjohn,

I am surprised you picked Chaffee. He was beat up in the primaries and is running in a blue state anyway. He is liberal for a Republican but all Democrats (including those in Rhode Island) are anxious for the Senate to turn blue.

I don't see Chafee winning.

I see Realjohnboy also has the Republicans keeping the Senate 51 to 49.

I think the Dems will take the House though. In fact, if they dont, I'll be well disappointed.

Even there I'd highlight a warning though. If you look at the sites that give ratings for the races, the Dems and Reps now still are head-to-head for the House. Almost all of the changes in ratings have gone the Dem way, so the headlines will of course focus on how things are looking ever more Democratic - which in turn has analysts and pundits speculating about "the perfect storm" and the like, in their columns and blogs. But it's important to keep recognizing the distinction between current rating and speculative prediction, hard though it is since they're mixed up editorially so often.

For example, you will find an overview of rating changes: the "XYZ Political Report" has moved 10 races to the Dems. This means that its numbers now show the Dems and Reps neck-and-neck. Since this compares with a modest to moderate Republican lead a while ago, and practically all rating changes have been towards the Dem, the accompanying article will then talk about how it looks like it is going to be a perfect storm and if things continue in this manner it will be a Democratic sweep -- but it is up to you to imagine the italics in that sentence, because the "XYZ Political Report" sure wont place them!

Just a warning..

The Senate, Nimh, is going to be close. The House, though, is going to be a Dem rout.

Well, I hope so. But take the Congressional Quarterly, for example (admittedly the most conservative rater of the bunch). They've published an incessant stream of rating changes these past coupla weeks, and I've reposted reams of them on the Senate/House thread. Almost all the rating changes were towards the Democrats, so it will sure have looked like proof of a "Dem rout". But note that, even with all those rating changes calculated, the current CQ estimate is still:

Democratic: 209 (+7)
Republican: 207 (-23)
No Clear Favourite: 18

Even the more bullish NYT electoral map currently only has:

Democratic: 214
Republican: 206
Toss up: 15

It can be argued that the rout can be expected to follow still before the elections, considering how things have been going so far, and considering the tendency for toss-up races to eventually fall into one direction almost collectively; but at the moment the electoral map shows no rout yet.