I think Bush has to have the country at war in order to be reelected, or at least in a state of panic over the possibility of a war or terrorism, and the administration knows it, so trouble on at least one front is inevitable.
Here's the real fear. There's 19 months until Black Tuesday 2004 edition and it seems that all our wars take about 6 weeks these days.
Can we find 14 or so countries to invade over the next 19 months in order for Bush to be reelected and for Cheney to keep receiving his Haliburton dividend checks?
PS I think the next war is the one he's been waging since January 20 2001, and it's the war against us.