Rebellion by Base Roils a Republican Race
Conservative's Run Against Moderate
May Hand Rhode Island Senate Seat to Democrats
By JEANNE CUMMINGS
Wall Street Journal
August 18, 2006; Page A4
MIDDLETOWN, R.I. -- Democrats chafed when Republicans used antiwar Senate candidate Ned Lamont's Connecticut primary victory to portray them as captives of their left wing. There could be some payback next month.
That's when Rhode Island Republicans face their own choice about whether to oust their party's version of a moderate incumbent, antiwar Sen. Lincoln Chafee, in favor of a sharp-edged partisan conservative. Challenger Steve Laffey supports the Iraq war, opposes abortion rights, wants border controls to tighten immigration before any guest-worker program is considered and backs extension of all of President Bush's tax cuts -- all positions contrary to Mr. Chafee's.
The competition is also one of personalities, pitting a wealthy, soft-spoken aristocrat -- Mr. Chafee -- against a self-made businessman -- and current mayor of Cranston -- who thrives on confrontation and competition. Darrell West, a political-science professor at Brown University, says Mr. Laffey "is polarizing. People either love him or hate him." There are no public polls on the primary that quantify their standings, but both candidates are campaigning as if they are in a tight race, and even Mr. Chafee acknowledges his political career could be endangered.
The Sept. 12 Republican clash in Rhode Island is in many ways a byproduct of a strategy embraced by both parties in recent years to move away from courting swing voters and instead relying on core party activists to provide the volunteers, votes and energy for elections and legislative showdowns. Now, that approach could come back to haunt both.
Last summer, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole called Mr. Laffey to Washington to urge him to run for lieutenant governor rather than jump into the Senate primary and jeopardize what was seen as a safe seat, recall Mr. Laffey and Ms. Dole's staff. After he announced his candidacy in September, the NRSC ran ads attacking him.
"It just shows you how, down in Washington, the Republicans have gone off the deep end. They are all about power," Mr. Laffey says.
Still, Mr. Chafee's most urgent argument on the campaign trail is that the nomination of Mr. Laffey will tip the general election toward Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, a former state attorney general now in private practice. Polls show Mr. Whitehouse with a formidable lead over Mr. Laffey, but in a dead heat with Mr. Chafee.
"Chafee isn't really out of sync with the electorate, just the Republican base," says Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. In Rhode Island, that isn't a very big base: There are only about 69,000 registered Republicans, compared with 235,000 Democrats and 364,000 independents. The key for Mr. Chafee will be persuading enough unaffiliated voters to cast ballots in the Republican primary, which is allowed under state law, to balance his losses from his own party -- which the 53-year-old senator expects to be sizable.
Mr. Laffey, 44, comes to the race with a compelling success story in Cranston. The former chairman of Morgan Keegan & Co., a Memphis, Tenn., financial-services firm, was elected mayor in 2002 and is credited with imposing tough economic policies -- including spending cuts and higher taxes -- to restore the city's economic health. And, while supporting the war, he criticizes the Bush administration's management of it and has called for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's resignation.
He has been endorsed by about a half-dozen local Republican officials and is supported by dozens more who signed a May 2005 letter urging him to run. "You have a record of standing up against the powerful special interests and fighting for taxpayers," they wrote in a "Draft Laffey" letter.
But Mr. Laffey is controversial. He sued the school board and took on labor unions when pushing through his economic programs. In 2003, he approved the display of a crèche outside City Hall at Christmas while also welcoming other religious displays.
He apologized last month after referring to some state Republican Party leaders, who had endorsed Mr. Chafee at the state convention, as elitists. "Luckily, those people are getting older and they're dying," he added during a radio program.
Still, Pat Toomey, a former Republican congressman who heads the antitax Club for Growth in Washington, has thrown his support behind Mr. Laffey. The organization is running television ads opposing Mr. Chafee and has raised more than $500,000 for Mr. Laffey's campaign.
With much of the party hierarchy behind Mr. Chafee, Mr. Laffey's strategy is to outhustle them in the street. For nearly a year, he has been walking neighborhoods, attending local government and civic-group meetings making his case for the nomination. His message mixes Republican ideology with Democratic-style appeals to the working class. Mr. Chafee and Mr. Whitehouse both hail from wealthy, politically active families. "It's all they've done. It's what their parents did," Mr. Laffey says. "I'm the ruddy-faced son of a tool maker."
In many ways, Mr. Chafee's struggle is of his own making. Besides opposing the war, he voted against some Bush tax cuts, citing deficit concerns. He opposed Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's appointment because he was convinced the jurist would be hostile to abortion rights. And he let it be known that he didn't vote to re-elect the president, writing in former President George H. W. Bush instead.
"I knew this was coming from way back," says Mr. Chafee, at an outdoor festival in Cumberland. "The president's agenda, for better or worse, motivates the party base. I've been hearing from them for the last five years."
To stem the damage, Mr. Chafee has been a regular at Republican spaghetti dinners and diner breakfasts. Even so, he isn't "overly optimistic" that he has persuaded many of them, he says.
He still has advantages, though. As the son of a legendary former governor and senator, John Chafee, his name draws strong support. "Linc's got a lot more class," says Germaine Greene of Warwick, an independent voter who chatted with Mr. Chafee at the Oakland Beach Festival.
Mr. Chafee has ruled out running as an independent if he loses the primary, as Sen. Joe Lieberman is doing after losing the Democratic primary in Connecticut. Asked why he didn't just go along with the president on some votes rather than risk his own party's ire, Mr. Chafee offers no regrets. "I want to win the general election," he says. "Those votes would have been killers for me."