114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Dec, 2014 01:54 pm
Latest jobs report has a good number of new jobs, which everyone is cheering. What has not changed is that labor still has no negotiating power, for months now the average hourly pay has been running around 2% above year before, which is only slightly better than inflation and is a poor number historically.

This chart is old but it gives an idea of what we should be expecting. Also notice for how long this number kept going down after the alleged recovery started, of how things kept getting worse for working stiffs .
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/10-2/Change%20Average%20Hourly%20Earnings.jpg

Everybody is waiting for this number to take off. If gas prices stay low I think we are almost there. That is a big if BTW.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Dec, 2014 05:39 pm
Hawkeye...Good evening.
The employment report looked good last month but we probably should not read too much into it.
You cited the "average hourly wage" which rose about 2% on an annual basis. That is about the rate of inflation.
I suggest that you consider the "average weekly wage" which takes into account the idea of employers giving workers more hours (while not hitting overtime) rather than pay raises.

hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Dec, 2014 05:57 pm
@realjohnboy,
That puts money in the pockets of labor, but it is very concerning that the holders of capital have been able to keep a solid lid on hourly wages this far into a recovery. It also calls into question the developing conventional wisdom that even though the labor participation rate is poor the labor market has gotten tight. If labor was scarce the wages per hour would be expected to inflate.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Dec, 2014 08:01 pm
@hawkeye10,
I think that it is logical for employers ("holders of capital") to increase hours for existing employees rather than increase wages through pay raises.

You touched on the "labor participation rate." I hate that statistic which was mentioned often in the last election cycle.
Would you be willing to try to explain how that is calculated?
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Dec, 2014 03:20 am
@realjohnboy,
This should make the 0.001% richer.

"America is on a “Hot War Footing”: House Legislation Paves the Way for War with Russia?"

More bombs on more people. Might even be some good ol' Haliburton reconstruction contracts to follow. Congress will be sure to "trickle down" their share bonanza. Just you wait and see, folks. It's a comin'.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Dec, 2014 03:55 am
@Builder,
Quote:
"America is on a “Hot War Footing”: House Legislation Paves the Way for War with Russia?"

we are not going to war with Russia, if we did there would be hell to pay from the Europeans, and if not now then soon the Chinese too.

What are you reading, comic books?
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Dec, 2014 04:10 am
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:
we are not going to war with Russia, if we did there would be hell to pay from the Europeans, and if not now then soon the Chinese too.


Whenever you're right about something I feel the need to point it out.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Dec, 2014 04:11 am
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
You touched on the "labor participation rate." I hate that statistic which was mentioned often in the last election cycle.
Would you be willing to try to explain how that is calculated?
People can Google if they want to know, but what have you got against this number? With the unemployment numbers such a mess this number helps, it gives us some idea of what the people people do. I think it is highly alarming that we are back to the percent of people working that we had before the women joined the labor force full bore. Getting more people working, getting American making more crap was supposed to be the thing that saved us long back in the day. What is going on? Are people lazy? are they too good for the work and have found other ways to get money (government money mostly)? Are there not enough jobs? Are people too stupid for the jobs? Are they volunteering? Have they decided that they would rather sit in mom and dads basement playing xbox?

I dont know, but we need to know.

I am also not happy that the alleged experts, the people minding this show called the economy, dont know why this number is going down so far so fast. THe worst number in decades came in September, are we going to bounce back? How far? How fast?
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Dec, 2014 02:53 pm
@hawkeye10,
Slate today has a very interesting graphic from Young Invincibles. The point of the piece is generally declining wages for millennials but what struck me was a bit of information on retail sector employment. According to these folks average yearly wage in retail and wholesale for 25-34 year olds in constant 2014 dollars has in ten years gone from $30k to 25K, a 17% drop. What this shows is how this sector is likely driving down wages. I think it is because they have too, because with the Walmartization of the retail sector due to consumers generally not being willing to pay 1 dime more for something then they have to costs needs to be removed someplace in order to keep the profits flowing.

No wonder it is so hard to find good service in retail these days. The lack of good service compounds the problems of brick and mortar retail because often if we are not going to get service in the stores we have one less reason to not buy online.

Quote:
(Note that I’m using the word “income,” not “wages,” as Young Invincibles itself and some journalists have when writing about the findings. That’s because the group is measuring annual, not hourly, pay—which unfortunately makes it a little tough to interpret their stats with any depth. The report’s authors told me they didn’t know whether young adult incomes were falling because workers were making less per hour, or because they were working fewer hours total.2 My guess is it has more to do with the latter—given the post-recession rise of joblessness and part-time employment.)


I am not sure how much this matters to labor unless these same people often have other jobs now when they did not before. We need to take this information with a grain of salt but it is a clue on how deep the troubles run for American Retail. Either way, if the decline of wages or if it is a decline of willingness to put workers on the schedule , it shows that retail is doing poorly. And either way it is likely to add up to a decline in service.

There is lots of other good stuff in the Slate piece, I encourage folks to check it out

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/12/08/broke_millennials_the_decline_of_young_adult_incomes_since_the_recession.html
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Dec, 2014 12:44 am
You're playing in the wading pool, boys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFpKwEm43n0
0 Replies
 
Quehoniaomath
 
  0  
Reply Thu 11 Dec, 2014 03:35 pm
Just watch the Hungergames movies


That is were the US (and the rest of the world) is going!
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2014 12:21 am
Quote:
Many men, in particular, have decided that low-wage work will not improve their lives, in part because deep changes in American society have made it easier for them to live without working. These changes include the availability of federal disability benefits; the decline of marriage, which means fewer men provide for children; and the rise of the Internet, which has reduced the isolation of unemployment.

At the same time, it has become harder for men to find higher-paying jobs. Foreign competition and technological advances have eliminated many of the jobs in which high school graduates like Mr. Walsh once could earn $40 an hour, or more. The poll found that 85 percent of prime-age men without jobs do not have bachelor’s degrees. And 34 percent said they had criminal records, making it hard to find any work.

The resulting absence of millions of potential workers has serious consequences not just for the men and their families but for the nation as a whole. A smaller work force is likely to lead to a slower-growing economy, and will leave a smaller share of the population to cover the cost of government, even as a larger share seeks help.

“They’re not working, because it’s not paying them enough to work,” said Alan B. Krueger, a leading labor economist and a professor at Princeton. “And that means the economy is going to be smaller than it otherwise would be.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/upshot/unemployment-the-vanishing-male-worker-how-america-fell-behind.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0

In the last 6 months I have been increasingly concerned about the state of men in America. Awhile back I noticed that men and women 24-35 are earning in constant dollars over 17% less than they did 10 years ago ( which I am going to bet means that men are earning at least 25% less). I would not be shocked if 5% of that is because todays young are taking longer to finish no (in my day no one was on the 6 year plan, and only the worst of the slackers on the 5 year plan) and more are going on to get masters degrees.....but GOD DAMN!

I am getting very worried that underworked and under appreciated (some of you may have noticed my detailed arguments against the feminists and many of their programs, and their having teamed up with the government) young men are going to blow up, and decide to set fire to this nation that has acted for all their lives like we dont give a damn about men.....about them.

Scary times.
Kolyo
 
  2  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2014 12:53 am
@hawkeye10,
NYT wrote:
Foreign competition and technological advances have eliminated many of the jobs in which high school graduates like Mr. Walsh once could earn $40 an hour, or more.


The fundamental problem is that technology is displacing manual labor. Money is still flowing through factor markets from companies to the factors of production. It's just that now, instead of flowing into the pockets of assembly-line workers, it's going to pockets of whoever owns the robots that are replacing those workers. None of this has anything to do with "feminism" or "scheming women".

NYT wrote:
A smaller work force is likely to lead to a slower-growing economy, and will leave a smaller share of the population to cover the cost of government, even as a larger share seeks help.


The money to support them is still there, but it's now in the hands of the people who own the robots. They don't want to part with it, which is why the larger share seeking help is S.O.L.

Hawk wrote:
I am getting very worried that underworked and under appreciated (some of you may have noticed my detailed arguments against the feminists and many of their programs, and their having teamed up with the government) young men are going to blow up, and decide to set fire to this nation that has acted for all their lives like we dont give a damn about men.....about them.

Scary times.


Well, if the GOP gets its way it will convince unemployed men that women are to blame for their problems, and that society doesn't care about "men". Really it's the lower class society spits on, regardless of gender. Don't worry about them "blowing up" or "setting fire" to anything; the US police are sufficiently militarized to kill anyone who steps out of line.
Kolyo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2014 12:56 am
People who want to see where the world economy and body politic are heading should check out a series called Continuum.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2014 01:06 am
@Kolyo,
Quote:
The fundamental problem is that technology is displacing manual labor.

We are about to see a lot more of it in the food service industry, especially the fast food industry.

Quote:
It's just that now, instead of flowing into the pockets of assembly-line workers, it's going to pockets of whoever owns the robots that are replacing those workers.
That, and the people who have the right contracts, the right alliances.

Quote:
None of this has anything to do with "feminism"
Mens lack of success in school and general demoralized state is almost 100% the fault of feminist, and this matters.

Quote:
The money to support them is still there, but it's now in the hands of the people who own the robots.
Kinda like the third generation after the empire was built trust fund baby who has never done a days work and could not. Once the money is gone it is gone, there will be no more incoming, because no work is being done.

Quote:
Don't worry about them "blowing up" or "setting fire" to anything; the US police are sufficiently militarized to kill anyone who steps out of line.
Not by a country mile, and our armed forces will not do a Tiananmen Square.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2014 05:19 pm
@hawkeye10,
Nov retail sales were up 4.3% before factoring in inflation, which is very good by post Great Recession standards. Current theory is that shoppers were finding good deals and were buying before Thanksgiving, which is something that some analysts were claiming even as the poor thanksgiving weekend numbers were posted.

In other news the gutting of the mall based retail concept seems to be continuing, with several mall based companies posting poor numbers while complaining of traffic problems.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2014 04:07 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:


After all, Sears has effectively been in liquidation from the day Mr. Lampert bought it. Whether liquidation was his original motive will forever be debated by investors; the secretive Mr. Lampert is unlikely to spill the beans.

And while he has talked a good game about wanting to be a retailer, he has acted like a liquidator; even when he was purporting to focus on Sears' retail operations, Mr. Lampert was engaged in a series of financial engineering transactions that loaded the company with debt while doing nothing to improve the business.

For years he starved the stores of capital expenditures while buying back stock at prices as high as $180 per share. Besides myself, very few people were critical of these buybacks at the time since Mr. Lampert was being hailed as the "new Warren Buffett" by the consistently clueless financial media.

It was obvious that the retail business was being deprived of capital while Mr. Lampert was attempting to shrink the share count and maximize his ownership of the company.

There are two ways to interpret this. Either he was being extremely shortsighted in seeking to increase the ownership of his hedge fund, ESL Investments, and squeeze out minority shareholders, or alternatively he realized that changes in the retail industry doomed Sears, and rather than squander precious capital on the stores he decided it was more prudent to purchase stock.

http://moneymorning.com/2014/12/12/fund-managers-sears-mania-is-a-dangerous-delusion/

It seems clear that Sears/kmart is in liquidation, However this is far too complex for me to figure out how Lampert expects to cash out with profits. Fitch Ratings estimates that Sears is now burning through $2 billion in cash per year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-15/sears-borrows-400-million-from-lampert-s-esl-investments.html
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Dec, 2014 12:11 am
@hawkeye10,
Buy short.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Dec, 2014 01:29 am
@cicerone imposter,
Have you figured out how Lampert is going to get paid for killing these two companies? Or do you not blame him because they were dead brands walking? Sears seemed lost a long time ago, and Kmart seemed to run out of ideas in the 80's....once Walmart owned low price guarantee Kmart was pretty well cooked.

My current theory is that he gets 1/2 of whatever they can get from selling the inventory to a liquidator, plus 1/2 the real estate plus whatever collateral he can tie up in loans his hedge fund gives sears. Should be good for a couple billion dollars dont you think?

Diehard, craftsman and kenmore might still be worth something, though their value is plummeting fast.
0 Replies
 
knaivete
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Dec, 2014 03:05 am
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Buy short.


Given that there is no "buy short" and you are responding to the post above yours, I guess you mean "sell short". Am I right?
 

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