Bush's budget allows record deficit

I'll try to post quotes, but my computer keeps freezing up.....

Bush's budget blueprint will estimate the deficit for fiscal 2003 at $307 billion, surpassing a 1992 record of $290 billion. The shortfall in 2004 will ease to $304 billion and continue to improve, though the federal government will still rack up a cumulative deficit over the next five years, administration officials said.

Bush's deficit figures do not include the cost of a possible war with Iraq, which officials say could add at least $61 billion -- the amount expended on the 1991 Gulf War -- to the projected shortfall this year alone.

The new deficit estimates -- at nearly triple the $109 billion shortfall for 2003 forecast in July -- underscore a dramatic deterioration in the nation's fiscal picture since a record surplus in 2000. As recently as 2001, the government was forecasting 10-year budget surpluses of $5.6 trillion.

Direct to reuters article

LittleK:

No surprise every business venture Bush took on went belly up. Now he's doing it to the entire nation. I can't help but wonder what all these Republicans that support him so wholeheartedly will do when the fiscal reality of his current road to hell hits them in the face!!!

Anon

Gee, my computer is freezing on me tonight, too. Think it's catching?

They are going to sweet talk their way out of this, but it will catch up. Meanwhile, either the NYT or my local paper had a very nice article today on how the "coalition" is being bought (they've just offered Turkey 4 billion, I think it was), and how you can't buy - it can turn on you easily.

"The Deficit" amounts to well under 3% of GDP. Levels of over 6% have proven supportable, and a 3% level is neither noteworthy nor alarming. As deficits go, its about average. Dollar-Figure comparisons to past deficits are meaningless. The Economy is not static. What was an awful of lot of money some years ago is relatively less significant today in flat dollar-value terms. Substantial and continued defiicit growth would be legitimate cause for concern, but the existence of a proportionately acceptable deficit during a time of global and domestic economic downturn is a very natural and healthy thing. How many individuals have a debt load of less than 3% of their assets?
The issue bears scrutiny, but certainly is not cause for alarm or even immediate political action.



timber

Timber:

Like I said, wait till the fiscal reality hits, then you'll be singing a different song. The only deficit that was bigger was Reagan, another Republican who liked spending. I've decided to quit trying to get people to see the light! I just plain don't care anymore. If the American people want to support this type of administration, and their policies, let them have at it. I sold the house in Tiburon, and bought a place on the coast with 20% of the money. The rest is going out of country in some rock hard investments that can't be hurt by the collapse of this economy. All my net dollars are also going out of country. I'm not going to get burned when the fit hits the shan.

SF and California home prices are already turning soft, and are starting to take longer to turn over! Soon they will start diving ... I project by the end of the year they'll be down 20%. Put that together with the fact that the only reason the prices are this high is due to extremely low interest rates which will not stay that way, and you could have a real estate market that could take 5-6 years to rebound. That's what happened the last time a Bush got ahold of the economy, and he didn't do near as much as this one is.

So Timber, have a ball while you can! Enjoy the moment, and the joy of having a totally Republican Government. We'll see what song you're singing by the end of the year ... Better yet, the end of next year!

Anon

My financial manager advised me and I turned the advice over to my niece and her husband not to buy a house right now in Orange County -- the realtor friends I have also tell me that your 20% dip is conservative as property is likely to drop even further in the area.

I do hope Dubya is privately praying to his God for a turnaround of all sorts of events that are being thrown at him. I think in the next six months, we will begin to realize what kind of a person he is.
If he's praying like the football coach and the team members that they will win the game, we are in deep trouble.

Odd isn't it. The very same people who were pushing for balanced budgets and paying down the debt are now touting deficit spending and who said debt was bad.

Light!

I was talking about THIS YEAR! I think the drop will be between 30-45% of value over the next two or three years. All these folks who are buying now will be seen in foreclosure later.

I spent eight years as an active real estate broker, 1972 through 1980. I actually had my brokers license for over 20 years before I decided I was tired of taking the test every four years.

There was about a 20-25% drop in the timeframe between 1980-1985. Then the prices exploded again until 1990, and then did the same thing all over again. This time will be substantial. I think it will be a disaster over the next 6 years. I should be able to get my Tiburon Home back for about 60% of what I just closed it for on Jan. 15th, 2003.

Meanwhile, we are moving to Timber Cove in a lovely place on the ocean, which hangs out over the cove. I've been trying to slow down the work schedule for the last five years, so now is my chance!! I'm going to sit on my deck, watch the wave crash up against the rocks, and drink margaritas!!

Anon

AU1929 old friend!

Strange isn't it! I think it's called "role reversal"! Last year however, both Demo's and Repub's were spending like crazy! I think the article that started off this topic just about says it all!

Anon

I'll be knocking at your door, Anon! Let's all take off for "The Blue Fox" (if it's still there). Or the Alta Vista in Salsalito for brunch.

(After all, America is the place where some can sit over at $75.00 steak dinner and discuss how bad times are).

Lightwizard
It is also the place where 40 million people have no health insurance, where people are losing their jobs, where the division between rich and poor becomes steeper with each passing year. Where a government of the people, by the people and for the people. Is under this president becoming a government of the rich by the rich and for the rich.

Of course, the more one realizes that the plight of the poor is not always self-inflicted. The problem with these overstuffed, armchair generals and economists is they are in denial. They may be giving people like a very old friend of mine who is one of the richest men in Orange County who has a very curious, skewed and isolated view of the world. Tax cuts aren't helping those who are now unemployed and paid into unemployment insurance for decades without collecting. They have a temporary reprieve but I don't see Dubya creating jobs with his newest version of Voodoo economics -- I see another change in his financial team within the next year. I also think he will be spending just enough to put himself or whoever succedes him to raise taxes. So I hope everyone who got a tax cut put it into a wise investment instead of spending it on something foolish -- that obviously did nothing for the economy. It's just that you might as well try to make a return on that money as the government will be out revenue searching quite soon. If it's not the federal, it will be the state governments. It's like a thief who says he has had second thoughts about robbing you and then picks your pocket.

BTW, it would be wise of Dubya to increase the spending on the Space Program right now which would create jobs in the technological sector, who will in turn buy on the retail market, and who will pay taxes. This can't be done while government projects are set on the back burner. The private sector is not able at this time to come up with their own plan to boost their sales. I've been involved with enough of them to know they are by-and-large clueless. They mostly got to the top by the Peter Principal and I often wondered if that meant they were inept or they were doing a lot of desk work -- under the desk, that is.

Lightwizard
That which is never mentioned when the statistics related to unemployment are quoted is the fact that the highly educated and those with technical skills are losing their jobs. These people when able to find a job are many times underemployed. That statistic is never to be found. I just wonder how long it will be before we see PHD's driving cabs.

Beep Beep! They'll be perceived by the same people as survivors -- see, the system works! Yes, but it often works like some rusty, creaking old machine. There's no Dorothy there with the oil can but there is a phony wizard behind that curtain!

so much for going back to school anytime soon...