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World War 3?

 
 
saw038
 
Reply Mon 19 Sep, 2016 09:36 pm
Are we on the verge of World War 3?
Russia and the United States have been doing a proxy war in Syria for many years.

Russia backs Assad and America backs the 'moderate' rebels.

Yesterday, America bombed the Syrian army and killed 62 while injuring 100.

It was apparently a mistake. But this also comes 5 days into the American-Russian peace treaty.

There is a lot in this situation and it is very complex.

Who believes that we are on the verge of a massive paradigm shift?
 
hingehead
 
  2  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 12:01 am
@saw038,
Not me. We've been stuck in this paradigm for decades.
saw038
 
  0  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 12:16 am
@hingehead,
But just because we have been stuck for decades, does that rule out the possibly that there will someday be a tipping point.

In other words, " the straw that broke the camels back."
hingehead
 
  3  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 06:28 am
@saw038,
No, I get what you're saying. It's just that Russia and the USA fighting a proxy war in the middle east that could trigger world war 3 is a paradigm that's been around for decades.

My contestation of your thesis is purely based on your statement that we could be entering a new paradigm. If we do it will make ww3 less likely.
Blickers
 
  4  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 06:59 am
If we killed Russian soldiers, then we are in big trouble. Instead, we killed the soldiers of the forces Russia is supporting. No WW3 over this.

Probably no WW3 under any circumstances, because neither Russia nor the US actually wants it. But one of the rules we've established over time is that American soldiers and Russian soldiers do not shoot or bomb each other. We might shoot and bomb at those who are on the same side as the Russians or Americans, but not directly each other. This incident does not change that.
engineer
 
  7  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 07:21 am
@saw038,
More like Cold War II.

saw038
 
  0  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 11:07 am
@hingehead,
You're right I would say that a radical paradigm shift of the world as a whole might stop another world war, but it also might cause it because there are those that oppose the paradigm shift.
0 Replies
 
saw038
 
  0  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 11:08 am
@Blickers,
But it someday could. I know that is speculation but it is in the realm of reality.
0 Replies
 
Kolyo
 
  2  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 07:52 pm
@engineer,
engineer wrote:

More like Cold War II.


That can be easily prevented. All we have to do is vote for the candidate who admires Russia and wants to turn our country into its carbon copy and close ally.
RABEL222
 
  2  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 11:42 pm
@Kolyo,
Its OK. Russia and Syria got even by bombing the U N people taking relief supplies to Appirio.
saw038
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2016 11:53 pm
@RABEL222,
I agree with you for the most part...I really don't mean to be rude but I think you meant to say Aleppo. That is in Syria.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 12:26 am
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:

Probably no WW3 under any circumstances, because neither Russia nor the US actually wants it.


Spot on, Putin has way too much to lose, like luxury yachts and real estate along the French Riviera.

The real area of conflict is the South China sea and North Korea, a president like Trump could easily overreact to provocation by North Korea, meaning Putin can just sit back and watch while China and the US seriously **** each other up.
saw038
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 08:38 pm
@izzythepush,
Well, the Americans have a lot to lose to such as the petrodollar.

We entered the Fiat currency in 1971 when Nixon refused to give gold to countries who had U.S. dollars.

In 1973, Henry Kissinger went to Saudi Arabia and negotiated a deal where they would only trade oil in the U.S. dollar.

Since, then we have done so with other nations in the Middle East.

Russia knows this and have started bilateral trading with China.
Blickers
 
  2  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 09:12 pm
@saw038,
Oh please, not the "petrodollar" and "Fiat currency" nonsense again. The dollar is the world's most used reserve currency because the US is the world's number one economic power as well as the number one military power, and people with extra money like to put it where it is safe. We pay our debts in valuable securities, and we have NEVER missed an interest payment. Combine that with the fact the US is the largest market worldwide, so foreign countries all are already used to dealing in dollars, and that is why more countries have their foreign currency reserves in dollars.

Russia is completely free to trade with China in rubles, yuan, tiddleywinks or whatever they want. It won't change a damn thing.
saw038
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 09:25 pm
@Blickers,
So, we have $19 trillion dollars worth of debt. The second place is Singapore with $1 trillion.

Did you know that on October 1st 2016 the Chinese Yuan, the close second of most powerful world economies, will go into world reserve currency and make up 11%?

Also, in January this year they established the AIIB which has half of the amount (100 Billion) of the World Bank and many nations, including U.S. allies, have already joined. However, they exclude the United States.
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 10:07 pm
@saw038,
Ah no Singapore isn't second:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Total debt isn't always the best measure IMO - that's why you can sort that table by percentage of GDP and debt per capita.

Luxembourg looks rooted.

What interests me is public debt versus private debt.

The government arguably has control over it's spending - much less, if any, over the debts of citizens and businesses.

So compare what my first link (total debt) says with this table of govt debt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt

to get a sense of whether the government or non-government are the big lenders
saw038
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 10:28 pm
@hingehead,
Okay, so you addressed debt...but still the U.S. is the first by far.

You failed to address my inquiry about the Yuan and the world reserve currency and the AIIB.

I am speaking of economic warfare.

Here is an article that might help:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/30/news/economy/china-us-war-by-other-means/
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 11:14 pm
@saw038,
Quote:
.but still the U.S. is the first by far.

Only in raw dollar numbers. In terms of GDP (which translates to 'ability to pay') and debt per person (also a fairer measure of the weight of debt) the US isn't even top 10.

I didn't answer your Yuan question because I didn't know the answer. I just wanted to make a point about how national debts are measured - and the difference between public and private debt.
saw038
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 11:22 pm
@hingehead,
I understand and respect for I do not know as much as you in reference to debt.

But, the point I was trying to make with the petrodollar is that the U.S. dollar being number 1 is the fact that no nation can buy oil unless it is with the dollar.

Japan manufactures goods and sends them to us to receive dollars in order to have U.S. dollars to purchase oil.

When countries try to go off the the U.S. dollar for the primary currency of purchasing oil like Iraq, Syria, and Libya, bad things happen.

Before the crisis' in those countries happened, each one of them wanted to start trading oil in other currencies and that was my point.

We went off the gold standard in 1971 under Richard Nixon and that is an absolute fact. Look it up.
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Sep, 2016 11:47 pm
@saw038,
You do realize that the IMF has had other reserve currencies besides the dollar for many years, right? The Euro, The Pound and the Yen have been reserve currencies for decades. Anything bad happen to us because of it? No.
You are listening to stupid Russian propaganda, which is hilarious because Russia is a broke-ass country in which the people are poor as hell. Russians have an internet troll company located in St. Petersburg, Russia which consists of Russians on social media saying the West, especially the USA, is going to go broke any month now. The United States is NOT propped by the petrodollar, it is propped up by being the number one economic power in the world and by the fact that our securities ALWAYS make the payment on time. Always. That's what our currency is backed by, not by half-assed Russian fantasies about the "petrodollar".


The way we handle our debt is by issuing securities, which are very desirable world wide. We pay the interest on these securities and they finance our debt. To do this takes only 8% of our Federal revenues, which leaves over 90% of our Federal revenues to take care of what our country needs.

I bet the Russian online trolls who you've been influenced by never told you that. they probably don't even know it themselves-they just go by the talking points their trolll company boss tells them.

Quote sawo38:
Quote:
But, the point I was trying to make with the petrodollar is that the U.S. dollar being number 1 is the fact that no nation can buy oil unless it is with the dollar.

Even if what you say was true, what is to prevent Japan from simply converting the appropriate amount of yen to dollars five minutes before making an oil purchase and then giving it to Saudi Arabia? How exactly does that hurt Japan to do this? How does somebody doing this give the US such a big advantage? Please explain.

PS: Don't forget that the US is the biggest economy in the world, so the other countries are used to using dollars for international transactions anyway. Using a standard currency in business dealings prevents having to deal with currency variations-now all the other currencies are judged by their relation to the dollar, and that is why other countries mostly use the dollar for international deals.

 

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