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combined probability of causally-linked events: joint probability?

 
 
Reply Thu 16 Apr, 2015 02:59 am
I'm a statistics novice trying to understand how to approach what I suspect is a fairly basic probability problem. I'd be very grateful for your patience and insight (and patience).

I'm trying to calculate the overall probability of two causally-linked events occurring. For example: 

What is the probability a member of the general population acquiring disease X and then dying from that disease?

I know the prevelance of disease X in the general population (1.2% of population acquire disease X), and I know the rate at which disease X causes death in the infected population (1.8% of infected persons die).  But I'm wanting to calculate is the overall probability of any given person in the general population acquiring the disease and then dying from it.

Am I correct in thinking that I'm just looking for the joint probability of disease plus death?  If so, is this how I'd solve it:

P(AB) = P(A | B) x P(B)
P(AB) = 0.018 x 0.012
P(AB) = 0.000216
P(AB) = 0.0216%

Am I on the right track? I feel like I'm not. 

I tried using Bayes' rule, but I gather is not relevant here because I'm not trying to modify confidence in a hypothesis in light of new evidence. Please correct me if I'm wrong in assuming this.

Note that I am not concerned with the accuracy of the diagnostic process. Most Bayesian examples I have encountered in my searching for solutions seem to focus on diagnostics.

Please forgive me if my questions are inane and basic. Like I said, I'm just starting out and am keen to learn more.

Thanks kindly for reading my query.

Jimi 
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puzzledperson
 
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Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2015 02:05 am
@Jimi3001,
That's correct.

If the population is 100,000 and 1.2% contract the disease, that means 1,200 get the disease. If 1.8% of those who get the disease die from it, then .018 x 1,200 = 21.6 die from the disease. 21.6 / 100,000 = .000216 = .0216%.

Causality isn't really relevant here, only conditionality. You could just as easily ask what is the probability of rolling a 6 on one six sided die, followed by either a 3 or 5 on a second six sided die. There are 1/6 ways of rolling a 6; and there are 2/6 = 1/3 ways to roll either a 3 or a 5. 1/6 x 1/3 = 1/18.

The key to calculating probability correctly is always the same, though the exact method will differ:

(1) Figure out the total number of ways an event can occur

(2) Figure out the total number of ways the desired event can occur

(3) Divide (1) into (2) to get the probability.

For example, in the case of the dice rolls, there are 6 ways to roll the first die, and 6 ways to roll the second die, so the answer to (1) is 6 x 6 = 36.

You can roll a 6 followed by a 3, or a 6 followed by a 5, for the desired event. So the answer to (2) is 2.

Then the answer to (3) is 2 / 36 = 1/18.

Applying this to your original problem, if we set the population at 100,000 then each lifespan is an event, so the answer to (1) is 100,000. The number of "desired" events is 21.6 as calculated from this above. Then the answer to (3) is 21.6 / 100,000 = .000216 = .0216%.

When the total number of "events" is not problem dependent, you can substitute any convenient arbitrary figure for (1).
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