Please check my pop math

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As in Cosmos, with the age of the earth considered as 1 year, then has world population not doubled twice over within the last three seconds

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@dalehileman,

dalehileman wrote:

As in Cosmos, with the age of the earth considered as 1 year, then has world population not doubled twice over within the last three seconds

I think that you are quite low. I calculate 143 years = 1 metaphorical second. 3 metaphorical seconds is 429 years.

429 years ago, the population was about 500 million. Doubling that twice would be 2 billion. We are up around 7 billion.

However, I should point out that this calculation is pretty meaningless.

1 Reply

Isn't your sentence lacking a question mark?

If that is the case, the world population has doubled a lot more than twice in the last three seconds (437.6 years, earth age).

What math exactly do you want?

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@timur,

Quote:

Isn't your sentence lacking a question mark?

Maybe from a purely technical point of view Tim. But over here it's very common to omit the eroteme, esp when the question suggests matter-of-fact

Quote:

If that is the case, the world population has doubled a lot more than twice in the last three seconds (437.6 years, earth age).

Then I must have slipped a decimal

Quote:

What math exactly do you want?

I'm not sure exactly. Recently I've read that the pop has doubled twice within the last 100 years so if the 5-billion years is compressed into one year, then how long is that

Tim my most abject apologies. It's obvious I'm no mathematician…...

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@dalehileman,

Max gave you already part of the answer.

Age of the earth = 4.6 By.

Number of seconds in one year = 31 536 000

So, 1 second in earth years is 4,600,000,000/31,536,000 = 145.86

Three seconds is 145.86*3 = 437.6 years.

437 years ago it was 1577.

At that time, following 2007 Hyde estimate, world population was 550 millions.

Today, it's 7,239 millions.

So, it's almost doubled four times.

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You modified your question while I was typing.

The reason why I abhor the time allowed to change a post..

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@timur,

Again Tim my apologies

Thanks for the above calculations, much appreciated

But if it's no trouble, now I need to know how long to double twice

1 Reply

@dalehileman,

The time it takes for human population to double is not a constant.

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@maxdancona,

It's not, indeed.

Consensus is for ten billions in 2100.

After that, too many parameters to take into account.

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@maxdancona,

Quote:

The time it takes for human population to double is not a constant.

Yes Max, thanks but I realize that, it's why I asked Tim how long to double just twice

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@dalehileman,

Because the time it takes to double isn't constant, your question doesn't make any sense.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Yea Max now I see what you mean. Probably I should have added something like, "…at the present rate…"

Like I said I'm one hellofa lousy mathematician but thanks for your participation too

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@maxdancona,

I think he was using you to check his number on his homework. Either way it is refreshing to see one of these people actually take a stab at it.I also think there was a bit of garble in the English that may have change meaning a bit.

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Great thread, Gentlemen. One of the most enjoyable in a week or more. Thanks! Actually learned a couple of things.

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@bobsal u1553115,

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Bobsal thinks Dale is a lazy student . . . ah-hahahahahahahahahahaha . . . a new way to say "idiot."

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@bobsal u1553115,

Quote:

I think he was using you to check his number on his homework.

Actually Bob I was planning a Letter to the Editor of our local newspaper regarding the suddenness of overpop

Quote:

Either way it is refreshing to see one of these people actually take a stab at it.

Yes, with many thanks esp to Tim

Quote:

I also think there was a bit of garble in the English that may have change meaning a bit.

My apologies to you and he. Continual editing is a terrible habit I shall have to abandon

But Tim if it doubles four times in 3 seconds can we roughly estimate that it doubles twice in 2 seconds

1 Reply

@dalehileman,

Yes, if population grows at the same rate as in the last three seconds, it should double twice in the next two seconds (roughly).

But almost every organisation dealing with population believe that the current rate is not keeping this path in the years to come.

Most developed countries will see their population stop growing and decline.

Some even see a worse outcome:

Quote:

As the scientist who helped eradicate smallpox he certainly know a thing or two about extinction.
And now Professor Frank Fenner, emeritus professor of microbiology at the Australian National University, has predicted that the human race will be extinct within the next 100 years.
He has claimed that the human race will be unable to survive a population explosion and 'unbridled consumption.’
Fenner told The Australian newspaper that 'homo sapiens will become extinct, perhaps within 100 years.'

Source

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Please check my pop math

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