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Hurricane Season 2010

 
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 20 Jun, 2010 06:19 pm
First hurricane of 2010 Pacific season forms off Mexico
Page last updated at 22:04 GMT, Sunday, 20 June 2010 23:04 UK
E-mail this to a friend Printable version The first hurricane of the 2010 Pacific season has formed off the coast of Acapulco in Mexico, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) says.

Hurricane Celia formed more than 350 miles (560km) south of the tourist resort, and is heading away from land.

With wind speeds of 75mph (120km/h), the NHC has classed it as a Category One hurricane.

Mexico's oil export facilities are in the Gulf of Mexico, well away from Celia's path, Reuters reports.

According to the NHC, the Pacific hurricane season usually lasts until November.

There are fears that hurricanes in the Atlantic - which tend to start in August - could disrupt efforts to stem the BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill off the US coast.
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 20 Jun, 2010 06:22 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP04/EP0410W5_NL_sm2.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP04/EP0410_PROB34_F120_sm2.gif
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 Jun, 2010 01:27 pm
MEXICO CITY — Hurricane Darby formed in the Pacific off Mexico's southwest coast Thursday, while Hurricane Celia strengthened farther out at sea.

Neither hurricane posed an immediate threat to land.

Darby, a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph (120 kph), was located about 235 miles (375 kilometers) south-southwest of Puerto Escondido on Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It was expected to strengthen over the next two days as it heads west-northwest, well away from land.

The hurricane center projected the storm could take a sudden eastward turn early next week, putting it on a path toward Mexico's southern Pacific coast.

That prediction is tentative and depends on a tropical wave of pressure forming in the western Caribbean, said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist at the center. Otherwise, Darby could continue on its northwestern path out to sea.

"It's a low-confidence forecast at this point," Cangialosi said. "It's not going to have great impact on land over next few days so there is certainly time to watch it."

Meanwhile, Celia became a Category 3 hurricane as it headed west across the open Pacific. Its maximum sustained winds increased to 115 mph (185 kph).
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 Jun, 2010 09:54 pm
Could have a storm in the Gulf over the weekend.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jun, 2010 11:23 am
@edgarblythe,
The odds of the red thing developing into a tropical cyclone have been rising over the last few days. I think they are now saying an 80% chance.
It does seem to be moving more in westward direction rather than a northwest one.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jun, 2010 12:08 pm
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201093_model.gif

This is not what we need in the gulf right now.
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JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jun, 2010 12:11 pm
@realjohnboy,
From Dr Jeff Master's blog

Quote:
Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Jun, 2010 07:00 am
We know have TS Alex headed for the Gulf.

http://icons-sf.wunderground.com/data/images/at201001_model.gif

http://icons-sf.wunderground.com/data/images/at201001.gif
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Jun, 2010 07:03 am
If the storm holds to the latest projections, we should have a good outcome re the oil spill. I feel a bit relieved this morning.
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jun, 2010 05:10 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif
Our local weatherman has just stated that half of the more reliable computers have landed this storm in Mexico. Half are now moving it up the Texas coast.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jun, 2010 05:13 pm
@edgarblythe,
Yeah, the model map three posts up is saying the same thing. Basically, it's 50-50 at this point if Alex will hit Texas or Mexico.
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jun, 2010 05:19 pm
There was a great deal of uncertainty about Ike too.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jun, 2010 05:25 pm
@edgarblythe,
Here's Dr Master's opinion...

Quote:
Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jun, 2010 05:36 pm
Watching...
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JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jun, 2010 10:12 am
Nothing much new this morning. There are still two clearly separate scenarios in the models. The three models that call for landfall in Texas are more closely aligned.
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jun, 2010 12:04 pm
If I had to guess at this point, I would say somewhere near Corpus Christi or a bit up the coast on our side.
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jun, 2010 12:41 pm
@edgarblythe,
could be we get some rain out of this, that would be nice.
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jun, 2010 12:53 pm
Rain and minimal wind would be beautiful.
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JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jun, 2010 01:03 pm
most of the models are now shifting to Mexico.
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JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jun, 2010 03:59 pm
Still a TS but it's a big one.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201001_sat.jpg
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