You, like the Obama administration, is grasping at straws trying to prove the success of the stimulus bill...but nobody will accept that it's worked if the job situation doesn't turn around. Over the past year, people have seized every little uptick in the jobs stats as "proof" that the stimulus is working, when in reality nothing is working as originally promised back in Jan 2009.
Just tracking Christina Romer thru her various interviews over the past year demonstrates...note how we're always just on the verge of recovery..
Date Mar 2009 in an interview with Larry King on CNN "Growing again by the end of 2009"
KING: Do you have any doubt at all that we will be on a path to growth in this year?
ROMER: I don't. I think the reason that -- I mean, I should say things could change, right? I'm not a fortune teller. I do feel strongly we've taken the right policies, the big bold fiscal stimulus, the financial rescue. As you talked about, there's going to be more announced this week.
What we're doing in housing; all of that for small businesses -- I think all of that is absolutely crucial.
And the reason we took them is we think they are the policies that the economy needs. And then we just saw the very aggressive action that the Federal Reserve has been taking.
So I think we are absolutely taking the right policies. I have every expectation, as do private forecasters, that we will bottom out this year and actually be growing again by the end of the year.
May 2009 "new jobless claims declining!"
"We expect the economy to level out in the second half of the year and then begin to recover," Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in prepared remarks....She told reporters after the hearing that she was encouraged by weekly jobless data on Thursday that showed new claims unexpectedly declining and a closely watched four-week average of fresh applications for jobless benefits drop for the third straight week.
Jul 2009 "oops...maybe not"
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a survey of homes rather than companies, rose from 9.4pc to 9.5pc, its highest since August 1983.
Dr Christina Romer, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said of the numbers: “Of course they are disappointing, I wish it had been better.”
She went on to point out however that even June’s job loss figure was substantially lower than the 600-700,000 monthly job loss figures occurring in the first quarter of the year.
“We are in for some more job losses but my hope and expectation is that we’ll go back to a pattern of moderating job losses,” she added.
Aug 2009 "Positive Growth by end of 2009...I promise"
The economy will show positive growth before the end of this year, she said, but it needs to be growing at around 2.5 percent just to keep unemployment from rising.
Sep 2009 "Still bad...but getting better"
'The trajectory is in the right direction,' Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told CNBC television after the August payroll report showed a jump in the unemployment rate, but fewer job losses than expected.
Oct 2009 "...turned the corner..."
The fact that the nation’s gross domestic economy grew in the third quarter is “incredibly important,” according to President Obama’s chief economist.
If nothing else, it shows that the US economy has turned the corner, moving from contraction to growth, said Christina Romer, chairman of the administration’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).
Nov 2009 "but maybe we haven't turned the corner on jobs..."
The unemployment rate, however, rose four-tenths of a percentage point, to 10.2 percent. That this occurred despite the rise in real GDP last quarter reflects both the typical lag between GDP growth and unemployment decline, and the recent exceptional increases in productivity. Having the unemployment rate reach double-digits is a stark reminder of how much work remains to be done before American families see the job gains and reduced unemployment that they need and deserve.
Dec 2009 "Well I never claimed to have a crystal ball...but things are getting better"
DR. ROMER: Well, you know, we, we were very encouraged last--the last
jobs report, when we saw the unemployment rate tick down. Again, I got to
emphasize, you know, how the change that we've seen, say, in GDP growth,
where we were just plummeting at the first quarter of this year, we're
now growing again. I'll tell you what most private forecasters are
telling us, is that GDP is going to continue to grow, if anything is
going to accelerate. Most of them are talking about positive job growth
sometime in the first quarter. So what usually happens is GDP starts to
grow, then employment starts to grow, then finally the unemployment rate
starts to come down.
MR. GREGORY: And you thought that stimulus would keep unemployment to 8
percent, and it didn't. It didn't work.
DR. ROMER: I will be the first to say I didn't have a crystal ball. And
certainly I think, you know, what we learned--we learned...
MR. GREGORY: By this time next year, where will unemployment be, in your
DR. ROMER: Well, I'm--I feel confident it'll be on the way down. As I
said, we've talked about how there will, you know, very likely be further
rises before it, it comes down. You know, what I feel confident is, is
that we're on the right trajectory. And I think what the president has
committed to is doing all that we possibly can so that number comes down
much more dramatically, because that is ultimately what we have to do.
Feb 2010 "But it's not our fault...the model is wrong"
“The usual relationship between G.D.P. growth and the unemployment rate has broken down somewhat,” Ms. Romer, who is on leave from the University of California, Berkeley, told reporters at the White House. “The unemployment rate has risen much more than one would have predicted.”