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# Whoopie! We're all gonna die ...

Abel Conklin

1
Thu 3 Dec, 2009 12:37 pm
@Sglass,
Icky is a word I refrain from using.
0 Replies

Ionus

1
Thu 3 Dec, 2009 03:50 pm
@rabel22,
You need to reread my post with a lighter heart. As for the post where you think I am talking about you being afraid to die, if you read the blue print you will see whom I am addressing. It wasnt you.
0 Replies

Ionus

1
Thu 3 Dec, 2009 03:52 pm
@tsarstepan,
One last chance ! Phhbbbttt ! Do you know how many of those I have foolishly squandered and I am still here. Anyway, I am supposed to get three chances...everyone knows that.
dlowan

1
Thu 3 Dec, 2009 03:59 pm
@Ionus,
I don't.
0 Replies

High Seas

1
Thu 3 Dec, 2009 05:27 pm
@rabel22,
rabel22 wrote:

According to this site i died on 04/09/2009. It agrees with my doctor. I am going back to high seas site for more information, if I live long enough to get back to it.

Good news - that site (and your doctor) only understand the first moment of the distribution for life expectancy, but the Bayesian probability calculation takes into account also: given that you are alive NOW, what is the probability you will STILL be alive 12 months from now? In the simplest possible terms (for more complexity read the mathematical article I linked you to on previous page) if at birth your life expectancy was 75 years, your Bayesian probability of STILL being alive at age 1 year was 99% (see actuarial table) >
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html
> BUT no matter WHAT your current age, long as you live and breathe NOW the probability you'll STILL be alive a year from now is NEVER zero. For instance, assuming you're 119 years old now, your Bayesian probability of still being alive a year from now is 3%. It seems counter-intuitive, but it's true - and that holds no matter WHAT your habits
0 Replies

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