Rasmussen Polls and Fox News.

I'll take a crack at that. I don't have a tv so obviously can't comment too much about Fox. I have read some of the links to Fox stories and I would conclude that I, for what it is worth, don't have a high opinion of that organization.
We have gone round and round about Rasmassen's polling over on the Obama thread. I think most us agreed that in the election polling they were at or near the top in accurately predicting the outcome. You can scroll back many many pages if you want to see that discussion. I am confident I am correct in making that statement.
So why is Rasmussen so prominently cited here? My fingerprints are all over that. Every couple of weeks I would update President Obama's Approval Index using Rasmussen. I chose them because I am known to be very liberal and didn't want to be accused of picking a poll that is perceived to have a liberal bias. Rasmussen was an outfit most of us could live with. That is the pony most of us agreed to ride.
Rasmussen typically uses a sample of 1500 "likely voters" vs "registered voters" or "adults eligible to vote." That can affect the outcome of a poll. They tend to poll 500 people a day for 3 days (a rolling poll) to update the Approval Index. The idea there is to prevent one day's news from causing gyrations.
So that is the story. I chose Rasmussen to try to protect my reputation as being as fair and balanced as I can be. In addition. once we went with Rasmussen the important thing is to watch the trend. We may disagree that Mr Obama's Approval Index is -10. Maybe it is -6 or -14. But we know that, for the last week or so, he has probably been slipping.
I am sorry for such a long response. That is the history of Rasmussen being on this area of A2K.

Nice reply

You sure you're not a scientist?

I also go to Rasmussen for data on Presidential Approval. Wikipedia gives the following information. "Slate" and The "Wall Street Journal" both rank Rasmussen as an outstanding polling site. A Fordham University analysis rates Rasmussen as the most accurate site with regard to prediction of the last presidential election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

Some may indeed declare Fox News to be a clownish propaganda machine but, unfortunately, it attracts millions of viewers.

What are your reasons for doubting Rasmussen?


I don't mean I either doubt it or don't, I know nothing about it, but I see arguments about it, and I am interested.

First, compare the headlines on Rasmussen to the headlines on reputable non-partisan polling sites (Gallup for example). On Gallup you will find good news for Democrats (i.e. Obama is seen as a decisive leader) and good news for Republicans (American wary that Obama is spending to much). On Rasmussen... almost every headline is about how Americans support conservative/Republican policies.

Second, Rasmussen polls are consistent.

Third the summaries for their polls are spun to accentuate conservative politics, and sometimes are blatantly misleading.

There is a place for partisan organizations when it comes to policy or political strategy. I stay away from partisan outlets (even those on my side) when it comes to polling.

Rasmussen's polling tends to be pretty good. But like all polls you have to look at the actual questions and results and not the spin put on it after the polling.

I think Rasmussen tends to lean its spin to one side, probably to generate business. The example I find frustrating and ridiculous is the strongly approve vs strongly disapprove chart they put out on presidential approval ratings.
A take on it here -
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/07/the-rasmussen-presidential-approval-index-is-this-newer-measurement-worth-anything.php

In looking at Rasmussen's site, it seems they are spinning everything. A story about their polling on the number of people that identify by party trumpets increases and decreases in party affiliation but fails to mention that the 1-2 point shift is well within any margin of error for the poll so is really meaningless.

Rasmussen does seem to do a lot of partisan polling and publish the results as if it has some meaning. A poll finds most people in the US don't like Pelosi? Wow... That's a surprise? But it fails to mention that GOP leaders poll even lower.

This has been pointed out to you before Possum. The Fordham analysis uses preliminary data and is off by almost 4 points from the actual totals. Rasmussen was the one most skewed toward the GOP but was about middle of the pack in accuracy compared to final numbers.

Reports by Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.

http://www.google.com/search?q=Wikipedia-Rassmussen+Polling&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7DKUS_en

"And for the record, Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there. So don't count him out."


Our little leftist-socialist friends fill their trousers when Rasmussen posts a poll with negative numbers for the messiah...BUT, the article is correct in stating Rasmussen's numbers were nearly identical to the final margin in 2008. They were in 2004 ALSO.