ALV, I'm a little bit more optimistic than you are; I know for sure things are going to get worse during the next few months, but as the stimulus plan begins to show a little promise, a slow turn-around will begin. This will be one of the longest recessions in history, but that's to be expected from a world-wide financial crisis. We must begin to see some hiring by the thousands all over the US in order to build, repair and maintain our infrastructure soon, or confidence will fall so low that it'll take much longer to revive our economy. People has to "see" some progress soon, or we're going to see the deepening of our economy to a depth that'll make recovery a lost cause. The government can't say this is a crisis, and the legislation must be signed immediately, then sit back and not start showing some progress. That'll be a program killer.
At this point in the recession when thousands are losing their jobs and homes, urgency is very important to keep hope alive. When hope is lost, all bets are off.
I agree the key will be to get people working again.
The question is how quickly this will occur, and if the number of new jobs will even impact the jobs that have been lost.
For example, look at our situation here in CA where cities, school districts, and counties are preparing their fiscal year budgets. Layoff notices have gone out in many cases, and job cuts are being planned as city revenues have fallen due to lower property taxes and sales tax receipts. These newly unemployed city workers will be looking for work in two months or so.
By the time a Federal Publics Works program affects this, we'll have cycled down too far, I'm afraid. People will need to buy items in their towns, property values will have to rise, to make cities and states solvent again.
I realize this is a myopic view is relation to what's occurring in the rest of the country, but somehow, I think it is being replayed over and over again...