7
   

Is the Stimulus Plan going to do America More Harm than good?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 03:04 pm
@maporsche,
That's okay; if you can't respond to my one-liners intelligently, I won't miss your responses.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 04:52 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote :

Quote:
As far as umemployment, history shows us that 10%-12%, while not ideal, also does not cause society to break down and cease functioning.


from :
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html

Quote:
Although the Great Depression was relatively mild in some countries, it was severe in others, particularly in the United States, where, at its nadir in 1933, 25 percent of all workers and 37 percent of all nonfarm workers were completely out of work.


i doubt that anyone knows what the unemployment in the U.S. will be if no appropriate measures are undertaken (and that means money or worksharing , which could be an option - but not relished by those with a job)
to prevent a slide into a real depression .

my preference would be to attack a wild fire early , even though someone might argue that it might be cheaper to let it burn for a while - perhaps the wind will shift .
but that's just a personal preference .
hbg
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 05:33 pm
@hamburger,
Many countries have suffered 10% unemployment, and we are now on the cusp of the same, and may probably get worse before it gets better. Some people's idea of what is reasonable or "not ideal" probably doesn't understand how a father feels when he has lost his job, but is still responsible for his family. One father in Los Angeles killed all his children, his wife, then committed suicide after he lost his job. From my POV, that's going too far, but we all see our realities differently.

Seeing as how more soldiers coming home from Iraq and Afghanistan are committing suicide, losing one's job is about as stressful for many.
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 06:38 pm
@cicerone imposter,
from my earlier link :

Quote:
The long contraction and painfully slow recovery led many in the American population to accept and even call for a vastly expanded role for government, though most businesses resented the growing federal control of their activities. The federal government took over responsibility for the elderly population with the creation of Social Security and gave the involuntarily unemployed unemployment compensation.


interesting how people change their minds when they have no job and no money !
hbg
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 06:45 pm
@hamburger,
It's really not that surprising. What is more surprising is all those conservatives who believes only in "self sufficiency" until they lose their jobs and homes.

I also wonder how many conservatives refuse to accept social security and Medicare, since they look upon these programs as "socialist."
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 08:12 pm
@hamburger,
Quote:
interesting how people change their minds when they have no job and no money


reality has a way about getting in the way of ideology. We were fat and happy for a long time, we had the ability to play intellectual games and care more about winning than being right. We we no longer had the ability, as problems piled up and as evidence piled up that we needed to get to work, we still deluded ourselves into believing that we could still play around. No more.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 08:32 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Many countries have suffered 10% unemployment


Europe had around that for a long time, and it was not a problem, as they had a good social safety net. 10% in the dog eat dog American style capitalism is a problem. The low low American unemployment payouts are not payable without federal aid, the food stamp program is not very generous and is underfunded, welfare programs have been eliminated and replaced by programs designed to move the needy into nonexistent jobs. A person who is unemployable in the current job market is basically fucked. When they figure this out then they get to tell their families. It must be a great joy.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 09:25 pm
@hawkeye10,
I'm not sure about most recent years, but I know that Germany, France and Italy all had 10% unemployment. Having visited Germany during those days, I remember their government had made work programs with people doing manual labor in the streets and parks. They were not happy or made enough to have a comfortable life. You may not think that as a problem, but that kind of unemployment hovers on more families living in poverty - even if they had health insurance. Unless you've been there, you will never have any idea how that kind of living is, and appreciate the difficulties inherent in having real work and making a real living. Being a parent is very difficult under those conditions, and we are seeing more of this in our country now.
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 10:21 pm
This is how bad things are getting in the city where I live. All the homeless shelters are full and the tent cities are nearing capacity.

http://www.sacbee.com/ourregion/v-print/story/1624580.html

Sacramento homeless woman finds some who care in her hour of need
Published Saturday, Feb. 14, 2009

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2009/02/13/20/627-6M14IMPOUND.embedded.prod_affiliate.4.JPG

In the life of every homeless person, there is a tipping point that pushes him or her from the edge to the street.

That final plunge came Friday for Deanna Van Slate, whose Honda Accord, her only shelter, was impounded for expired registration.

Rock bottom came in a North Sacramento parking lot. The 50-year-old woman stood in the rain, bags of possessions at her feet, with nowhere to go.

"How am I supposed to live like this?" she asked.

Van Slate's downward spiral began in November, when she lost her job at Home Depot. She was living in a Citrus Heights duplex, but couldn't make the $850 rent when her 65-year-old roommate died of cancer in December.

Collecting just $105 in unemployment every two weeks, she said she was forced to live in her car after being evicted earlier this month.

Van Slate had just stopped in to pick up her check " which wasn't available yet " on Friday afternoon when a Sacramento police officer stopped her on 16th Street at Thornton Avenue. Her registration was expired, and she had no proof of insurance. So the officer had her car towed.

Desperate, Van Slate said she begged him to reconsider.

"I was on my knees," she said.

Her registration had been expired for at least six months, which is the threshold for an officer to legally tow a car, said Sgt. Norm Leong, Sacramento Police Department spokesman.

"Do we have to? Very seldom do we have to do anything," Leong said. But officers who make exceptions face potential liability later if that unregistered car is involved in an accident " even if the driver is not at fault.

"When you make that discretion and allow someone to keep their car, you're taking that risk," Leong said.

If officers made exceptions for every emotional plea they received, Leong said, "then you'd have a lot of uninsured, unlicensed drivers on the road."

Sister Libby Fernandez, executive director of Loaves & Fishes homeless services, said the decision was not just a legal one, but also an ethical one.

"There might be a law you are guided by, but where is your compassion in any law?" she asked.

Fernandez arrived at the North Sacramento parking lot with other Loaves & Fishes staff members to assist the tearful Van Slate after a nearby business owner called to report the exchange.

Gary Wood, owner of Wood Bros. Floor Coverings Inc., said he watched Van Slate pulling bags of belongings out of her car as it was being hitched to a tow truck.

It nearly brought him to tears, watching her cry in the rain.

"Anybody's heart would have gone out to her," Wood said.

He called Loaves & Fishes for help. Fernandez and her staff members loaded Van Slate's belongings into a golf cart and brought her to a tent city on Bannon Street.

It was the best they could do, Fernandez said, because all the city's shelters are full.

Wood said he sees many homeless people in the area, and "it's not like I have a load of compassion" for all of them.

But he said watching an ordeal like Van Slate's "brings it home. There's probably more of this in the future."

For weeks, Fernandez said, she has been talking to those who are Sacramento's newly homeless.

"She's as human as you and me," Fernandez said of Van Slate. "We're not that removed from being homeless ourselves."

Sad and angry for Van Slate, Fernandez said she nonetheless took solace knowing somebody called for help; that other homeless campers at the tent city assisted Van Slate in finding an open spot for her belongings; and that an overwhelmed and frightened Van Slate still found it in her heart to share a blanket with another homeless and very cold camper.

cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 10:46 pm
@Butrflynet,
These were the unemployment rates last November (we all know they are getting worse every week):

Quote:
51 MICHIGAN 9.6
50 RHODE ISLAND 9.3
48 CALIFORNIA 8.4
48 SOUTH CAROLINA 8.4
47 OREGON 8.1
45 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 8
45 NEVADA 8
44 NORTH CAROLINA 7.9
43 GEORGIA 7.5
39 ALASKA 7.3
39 FLORIDA 7.3
39 ILLINOIS 7.3
39 OHIO 7.3
38 MISSISSIPPI 7.2
37 INDIANA 7.1
36 KENTUCKY 7
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2009 11:08 pm
@Butrflynet,
And this is how much of a difference just a little bit of help can make. Unfortunately, the private charities don't have enough capacity to help everyone who is currently in need of it.

http://www.sacbee.com/1269/story/1626367.html

Homeless woman's story prompts offers of help
ShareThisBy Chelsea Phua

Published: Sunday, Feb. 15, 2009 | Page 2B

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2009/02/13/20/638-6M14WOMAN.highlight.prod_affiliate.4.JPG

The plight of a homeless woman in Sacramento, who lost her only shelter when her car was impounded Friday, has resonated throughout the region.

Despite troubled economic times, many " including some who are themselves struggling financially " are reaching out to help 50-year-old Deanna Van Slate after reading her story in The Bee.

Loaves & Fishes, a nonprofit organization that helps the homeless " and brought Van Slate's story to light " was inundated Saturday with offers of help for the woman.

Sister Libby Fernandez, Loaves & Fishes executive director, said she had talked to about 150 people by midday Saturday. People offered help, ranging from cash to free accommodations for Van Slate. Some offered rooms for free for two weeks, some for a month, Fernandez said.

"There're all sorts of amazing people from our community who feel like they too are on furlough from the state, or losing hours from other employment, but still want to give somehow," Fernandez said.

Van Slate's registration on her Honda Accord had expired in December 2007 and she did not have car insurance, Sacramento police said. She lost her job in November and was evicted from her Citrus Heights home earlier this month when she could not make rent payments.

When a police officer stopped her Friday on 16th Street and Thornton Avenue, he had her car towed.

The actions of the police officer sparked outrage among some Bee readers.

"She was just trying to get by in her car," said Patty Moody, a retired state employee, who was one of dozens who contacted The Bee to offer help. "I don't know if the police or city needed to impound her car."

Police Department spokesman Sgt. Norm Leong said Saturday that officers are aware of how people are affected adversely when deprived of their cars. But police have a duty to enforce the law and protect the public, Leong said.

"It's not that we don't sympathize with their situations," Leong said. In making the decision to take it off the street, officers have to consider dangers posed by an uninsured, unregistered car, he said.

Leong added that the officer asked her numerous times how he could help, and helped place her belongings in a dry spot, out of the rain.

Loaves & Fishes volunteers and staff members are working to recover Van Slate's car, and are seeking donations that would help pay her insurance, registration, towing and storage fees. They are also working with her to find employment and help her consider the housing options she's been offered.

Meanwhile, a local family is taking her in for the weekend.

Fernandez said her group also will continue to help Van Slate deal with past problems.

Van Slate was convicted of a felony count of burglary in 2006 and sentenced to a five-year probation term, according to online court records.

Fernandez said she is aware of Van Slate's issues. Van Slate had initially come to the attention of Loaves & Fishes through its mental health services program.

"I know her and she's trustworthy," Fernandez said.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 04:31 pm
@cicerone imposter,
c.i. wrote :

Quote:
I'm not sure about most recent years, but I know that Germany, France and Italy all had 10% unemployment


just checked the website of the german ministry of labour .
overall unemployment rate for january 20o9 is 8.3 % .
there is however a great disparity in the rates between states in the former west-germany and the former east-germany .
for the former west-germany the rate is 7.1 % , up from 6.9 % .
for the former east-germany the rate is 10.1 , up from 9.3 % .
it gets more disturbing when one looks at some individual states in the former east-germany : some states have unemployment as high as 16 % .
moreover , unemployment was practically unknown in the former east-germany : pretty well everyone had a job and the pay was enough to pay for life's necessities .
there have been numerous "commissions" that have wrested with the problem , but no solution has come forth !
in some former east-german cities , whole city sections have been "closed down" . the remaining inhabitants (not many left) were moved out , all city services were discontinued and the sections "closed off" . cities simply did not have the money to supply services to the almost empty parts of some cities .
indeed , a very worrysome trend - good breeding ground for skinheads , i'm afraid .
hbg

roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 05:36 pm
@hamburger,
Worrisome, alright. I wonder if all countries report unemployment in the same manner, though. I don't think the US method is especially accurate.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 06:13 pm
@roger,
I doubt very much that all countries report their unemployment rate in the same way.

What I find somewhat interesting is the simple fact that we've lost over 2.6 million jobs last year, and the count for the people without health insurance is still at 46 million.

maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 06:38 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I mentioned in another thread that at least at my company they announced 1000 job cuts in the last 2-3 quarters, but we didn't lay anyone off. I know several financial companies that have done the same thing. I'd be willing to bet that the majority of those 2.6 million jobs only existed on paper.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 07:03 pm
@maporsche,
Quote:

Employment Situation Summary

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 09-0117
http://www.bls.gov/cps/

Establishment data:(202) 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 Friday, February 6, 2009.


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2009


Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598,000) and the unem-
ployment rate rose from 7.2 to 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment has declined by 3.6 million since the start of the recession in December 2007; about one-half of this decline occurred in the past 3 months. In January, job losses were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons (11.6 million) and the unemployment
rate (7.6 percent) rose in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of un-employed persons has increased by 4.1 million and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.7 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

The unemployment rate continued to trend upward in January for adult men (7.6 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), whites (6.9 percent), blacks (12.6 percent), and Hispanics (9.7 percent). The jobless rate for teenagers was un-changed at 20.8 percent. The unemployment rate for Asians was 6.2 percent in January, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased to 7.0 million in January. This measure has grown by 3.2 million during the last 12 months. (See table A-8.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.6 million in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed was up by 1.3 million. The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks rose to 3.7 million in January. (See table A-9.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 11:08 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:
Robert had mentioned in another thread that the main problem was unemployment also.


Yeah, and I included this helpful graph:

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/3944/81825764ct2.jpg

Quote:
As far as umemployment, history shows us that 10%-12%, while not ideal, also does not cause society to break down and cease functioning.


If that didn't impress you, then maybe this will. Everyone likes to point at the 25% unemployment of the Great Depression right? Well that was 4 years after the market crashed. One year afterwards it was 8.9%, which is about half of what it is today if calculated the same way. Here's a huge image (sorry) from Mint.com explaining it:

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6544/1234010029gz4.jpg
OGIONIK
 
  0  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 11:22 pm
@Robert Gentel,
skinheads, thugs, robberies..

the east side of las vegas used to have gangsters in it, the apst 2 eyars it went from normal middle class to everyone scared of getting robbed at gunpoint.

get that money, is how i see it. your a sheep or a wolf, or your a smart wolf in sheep's clothing.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2009 11:43 pm
considering that a) debt and excessive leverage had for decades spread its malignancy through the employment landscape and b) that employers no longer feel much obligation to protect or take care of their employees....the bottom dropping out of the employment numbers was completely predictable. In fact I predicted it.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Feb, 2009 10:45 am
@hawkeye10,
Of coarse you did! LOL
0 Replies
 
 

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